Biofuels and Consumptive Water Use Upali A. Amarasinghe International Water Management Institute, New Delhi Office Sustainable Bioenergy Symposium: Improving resilience to high food prices and climate change June 2, 2011, FAORAP, Bangkok
International Water Management Institute
Biofuel and Water Demand Regional Impacts Outline Part I Part II 1. Global and regional water demand 2. Regional impacts 3. Water footprints of biofuel in Thailand and Malaysia 4. Impacts of increasing demand biofuel on water resources 5. Issues and concerns 6. Conclusions
1.1 Water Scarcity 2000 a third of the worlds population already Suffering from water scarcity Little or no water scarcity Physical water scarcity Approaching physical water scarcity Economic water scarcity Not estimated Source: Comprehensive Assessment, De Fraiture et al., IWMI
1.2 Water withdrawn in water scarce countries Water for biofuels* Water for food and feed today Future water for food, CA scenario No water scarcity Approaching water scarcity Water scarce 0% 60% 75% 100% % of potentially utilizable water withdrawn for human purposes
1.3. How much land & water now? 1,220 million hectares of crop land (food, feed, fibre, biofuel) Less than 2% for biofuels 7,230 billion m 3 crop consumption water use Less than 1% for biofuels 2,685 bcm irrigation water (withdrawals) Less than 1% for biofuels Substantial part of water depletion is from effective rainfall
1.4. How much land & water in the future? Harvested area 2003 irrigated rain fed biofuels 2030 irrigated rain fed Crop water consumption 400 Million ha 800 1200 1600 2003 irrigation directly from rain biofuels 2030 irrigation directly from rain km 3 2000 4000 6000 8000 Source: Comprehensive Assessment, De Fraiture et al., IWMI
2.1. Impacts of increasing water demand for biofuel Impact of increasing biofuel demand encroach forest land or increase irrigated area and withdrwals or reduce food and feed supply Water quality deterioration (very little attention at present) Will land and water will be an issue for biofules? YES Water scarce and poor countries have the largest risk India, China, Africa etc. What about Thailand and Malaysia?
3.1 Biofuel demand in Malaysia and Thailand Ethanol in Thailand and Biodiesel in Malaysia Demand (million liters/day) Biofuel demand 100 80 60 40 20 0 7.0 1.8 3.9 1.5 79.9 3.3 1.1 48.6 2.8 1.1 2.3 1.8 0.3 1.5 0.9 19.0 13.6 16.6 20.5 25.1 29.7 7.8 2006 2010 2015 2022 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Gasoline and bioethanol demand Diesel and biodiesel demand Thailand Malaysia Gasoline Sugarcane-bioethanol Cassava-bioethanol Petrolium diesel Biodiesel Ethanol demand in Thailand will increase by 300% between 2010 and 2022 Biodiesel demand in Malaysia will increases by 108% between 2010 and 2030
3.2. Feedstock demand for biofuel production will increase 20 Fedstock demand for bioethanol in Thailand 100 1.5 Bio-diesel and palm oil demand for transport Feedstock demand (million tonnes) 16 12 8 4 0 1.5 1.8 1.8 2.1 1.5 4.1 4.9 6.0 7.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.4 13.9 14.3 14.6 15.1 15.5 11.4 10.0 8.1 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Cassava Sugarcane molasses 80 60 40 20 0 Share of feedstock (%) Palm oil demand (million tonnes) 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0 ` 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Share from cassava Share from sugarcane molasses Palm-oil Cassava will provide 80% of the feedstock from 2018 onwards Cassava demand for bioethanol will have eight-fold increase Palm oil demand will increase by 108% between 2010 and 2030
3.3 Demand for sugarcane and cassava will increase Production (million tonnes) and yield (tonnes/ha) 100 80 60 40 20 Crop production for feedstock in biofuel production Sugarcane Cassva 0 0.0 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 20211961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 Production Area Yield 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 Area (million ha) 100 Production (Million tonnes) and yield (tonnes/ha) 80 60 40 20 Oil palm in Malaysia 0 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 4.0 3.2 2.4 1.6 Area (Million ha) 0.8 0.0 Yield is the main growth driver of production increase of sugarcane and cassava Area has been the major driver of production growth in oil palm
Depletion inside the area of productio n 3.4 Components of Water footprints Total water footprints Water embedde d in other inputs Internal water footprints External water footprints Soil moisture Effective rainfall Irrigation Polluted water Direct water use Indirect water use
3.5. Water depletion in the process of ethanol production Consumptive water use Water pollution Agriculture Industrial Industrial
Sugarcane/cassava in Thailand 3.6.. Factors of water footprints Thailand Malaysia Factors Sugarcane Cassava Oil palm Area (1000Mha) 1,047 1,050 4,235 % irrigated area 14% 0% 0% Yield (tonne/ha) 51.467 22.073 19.289 ETa (mm) 1,183 847 1,383 Effective rainfall (P75) (mm) 675 678 1,234
4.1. Water footprint estimates Water footprints (m 3 /tonne) 4,000 3,200 2,400 1,600 800-14 12 6 16 177 3,718 3,261 2,288 32 1,469 131 290 307 Sugarcane Molasses Bioethanol Cassava Bioethanol 640 Oil palm Palm oil Sugarcane bioethanol Cassava bioethanol Palm oil biodiesel Biodiesel Rainfall contribution 89% in molasses ethanol 99% in cassava ethanol 99% in palm oil biodiesel Thailand Malaysia Effective rainfall Irrigation Sugarcane ethanol: 1,299 liters of water/ liter of ethanol Cassava ethanol: 1,817 liters of water/ liter of ethanol Palm oil biodiesel: 3,222 liters of water / liter of biodiesel
4. Total Water footprints and Impacts 4.2 Contribution from irrigation to total water footprints is low 784 and 15 mcm/year for sugarcane and cassava ethanol in Thailand 7.1 mcm/year for biodiesel in Malaysia Water use for meeting cassava bioethanol demand will increase rapidly, but most of that will be from rainfall contribution Water footprints (m 3 /year) 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000-2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Sugarcane ethanol 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Cassava 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Bioethanol demand (Million liters/year) Green water footprints Irrigation water footprints Bioethanol demand
4. Total water footprints and Impacts 4.3. Large spatial variation of water footprints 4 provinces share more than 75% of irrigation WFP
4. Total water footprints and Impacts 4.4 Irrigation water footprints is a small portion of renewable water supply Irrigation demand for bioethanol production in 2022 is only 0.2% of the renewable water supply of 444 billion m 3 in Thailand Irrigation demand for biodiesel production in 2022 is only 0.003% of the renewable water supply of 630 billion m3 in Malaysia Water footprints (m 3 /year) 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000-2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Sugarcane ethanol 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Cassava 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Bioethanol demand (Million liters/year) Green water footprints Irrigation water footprints Bioethanol demand
5. Issues and Concerns 5.1 The planned growth in 100 Planned sugarcane production growth 1.20 sugarcane yield for meeting bioethanol demand is unrealistic Envisaged that sugarcane yield to grow by 84% by 2012 But, 1% increase in irrigated area under sugarcane will increase yield by 0.16% (Figure below). At present 14% of the sugarcane area is irrigated. A difficult target to meet the planned growth even if all area is irrigated Production (million tonnes) and yield (tonnes/ha) Yield (ton/ha) 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 80 60 40 20 0 1998 2008 2018 Production Area Yield y = 0.56 x + 1.00 R 2 = 0.97 y = 49.557e 0.16x R 2 = 0.17 30 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 Irrigated area - % of total area 0.96 0.72 0.48 0.24 0.00 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Area (Million ha) NET - % of ETa Yield NET-% of ETa Expon. (Yield) Linear (NET-% of ETa)
5. Issues and Concerns 5.2. Cassava exports will drastically reduce Planned area under cassava will remain at the present level. But, envisaged growth of cassava yield is moderate. As a result, cassava exports will reduce drastically. Economic impacts of this needs further investigation 40 Cassava use (Milion MT) and ethanol production (Million Liters/day) 32 24 16 8 0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Cassava for ethanol Cassava export Cassava-food/feed demand Ethanol production
5. Issues and Concerns 5.3. Major impact is on water quality deterioration 5.3.1. Excessive fertilizer use can leach Nitrogen to groundwater Urea application can leach 8.69 million kg nitrogen to groundwater But, the groundwater recharge is significantly large with respect to water needs to dilute quality deterioration Sugarcane Cassava Fertilizer (kg/ha) N 90 90 P 60 50 K 110 60 Total 260 200 Fungicide (kg/ha) - 620 Insecticide (kg/ha) 60 - Herbicide (l/ha) 800 -
5. Issues and Concerns 5.3.2. Wastewater generation is a major quality issue Wastewater, called spent wash is stored in ponds and part of that is reapplied to fields as fertilizer Spent wash has high PH, high temperature, high nitrogen content Biological and chemical oxygen demand (BOD, COD). Spent was in ponds can deteriorate groundwater quality Spent wash fertilizer can enter streams or groundwater with return flows Total spent wash generated is low now, but can generate as much as 8 mcm by 2012. Too big amount to use as fertilizer, thus can have a major environmental concerns
6. Conclusion Biofuel production will not be major problem for irrigation water use in Thailand or in Malaysia. Most of the consumptive water use is from effective rainfall However, the quality of water resources with increasing effluents generated by the biofuel plants could be a major environmental bottleneck to guard against
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