Indices for Heat Health Warning Systems General Considerations Christina Koppe Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)
Single & multiparameter indices Holistic (air mass based) approaches Consideration of adaptation Simplified biometeorological indices Heat budget approaches Quelle: Fotalia 2
Perfect Heat Health Warning System Perfect Heat Health Warning System reliable easy to handle effective Forecast skill Health relevance Single & multiparameter indices No complicated modelling Easy to implement Low requirements for input data universal Trigger interventions to prevent heat related health impacts communication sufficient lead time 3 Picture Source: Fotalia
Indices for Heat Health Warnings Single: T max, T mean Multi: simple combination of parameters Example single-parameter: Latvia T max Level 1 (potentially dangerous) : max air temperature between 27 C and 32 C for 2 days or more Level 2 (dangerous): max. air temperature above 32 C Single & multiparameter indices Warning-threshold has to be fitted to mortality data 4
Indices for Heat Health Warnings Single & multiparameter indices Single: T max, T mean Multi: simple combination of parameters Example multi-parameter: France 3 day average of 99,5th percentile T max (31-36 C) and T min (18-24 C) Level 1: seasonal vigilance (1 June - 31 August) Level 2: short heat wave (1 or 2 days) Level 3: warning and action (thresholds are reached for 3 days or more) Level 4: maximal mobilization (very long and intensive) 5
Perfect Heat Health Warning System Single & multiparameter indices Perfect Heat Health Warning System reliable easy to handle effective Forecast skill Health relevance No complicated modelling Easy to implement Low requirements for input data universal Trigger interventions to prevent heat related health impacts communication sufficient lead time 6 Picture Source: Fotalia
Perfect Heat Health Warning System Perfect Heat Health Warning System reliable easy to handle effective Forecast skill Health relevance Simplified biometeorological indices No complicated modelling Easy to implement Low requirements for input data universal Trigger interventions to prevent heat related health impacts communication sufficient lead time 7 Picture Source: Fotalia
Indices for Heat Health Warnings e.g. Heat Index, Humidex, wet-bulb globe temperature, apparent temperature Example Switzerland: Heat Index Simplified biometeorological indices 8
Indices for Heat Health Warnings Simplified biometeorological indices e.g. Heat Index, Humidex, wet-bulb globe temperature, apparent temperature Example Switzerland: Heat Index Level 1 (considerable danger): HI > 90 for 3 consecutive days Level 2 (great danger): HI > 93 for 5 consecutive days 9
Perfect Heat Health Warning System Simplified biometeorological indices Perfect Heat Health Warning System reliable easy to handle effective Forecast skill Health relevance No complicated modelling Easy to implement Low requirements for input data universal Trigger interventions to prevent heat related health impacts communication sufficient lead time 10 Picture Source: Fotalia
Perfect Heat Health Warning System Perfect Heat Health Warning System reliable easy to handle effective Forecast skill Health relevance Holistic (air mass based) approaches No complicated modelling Easy to implement Low requirements for input data universal Trigger interventions to prevent heat related health impacts communication sufficient lead time 11 Picture Source: Fotalia
Perfect Heat Health Warning System Perfect Heat Health Warning System reliable easy to handle effective Forecast skill Health relevance Heat budget approaches No complicated modelling Easy to implement Low requirements for input data universal Trigger interventions to prevent heat related health impacts communication sufficient lead time 12 Picture Source: Fotalia
Indices for Heat Health Warnings e.g. Perceived Temperature PT (SET*, PET, UTCI) Example Germany: PT + adaptation approach (HeRATE) + OT Complete heat budget model of 2/3 absolute part human relative body part 1/3 Standardizations: 50 inclusion PT ( C) of absolute Thermal limits load category due to the Standard short term Person adaptation (Klima-(acclimatisation PT 12 constrain of keeping the core + behavioural 40 adaptation) weighted -39-4 extreme cold stress Michel) PT12 temperature constant -39 to -26-3 strong cold stress Standard 30 Environment -26 to -13-13 to 0 0 to 20 Heat 20 to budget 26 1 26 to 32 2 approaches 32 to 38 38-2 -1 0 3 4 moderate cold stress slight cold stress thermal comfort slight heat load moderate heat load strong heat load extreme heat load Perceived Temperature ( C) 20 10 0-10 Jan 84 Mrz 84 Mai 84 Jul 84 Sep 84 Nov 84 Jan 85 Date Index: Perceived Temperature (PT) 13
Indices for Heat Health Warnings Heat budget approaches e.g. Perceived Temperature PT (SET*, PET, UTCI) Example Germany: PT + adaptation approach (HeRATE) + OT Level Operative 1: variable Temperature threshold for OT strong heat load is exceeded calculated for 2 consecutive by building days and indoor mean operative simulation temperature modelduring nighttime is higher than Standardizations: ~ 24 C Building type Level 2 : threshold for extreme heat load is User behaviour exceeded (PT [12 UTC] >38 C) 14
Perfect Heat Health Warning System Heat budget approaches Perfect Heat Health Warning System reliable easy to handle effective Forecast skill Health relevance No complicated modelling Easy to implement Low requirements for input data universal Trigger interventions to prevent heat related health impacts communication sufficient lead time 15 Picture Source: Fotalia
HHW-Indices Heat budget approaches e.g. Perceived Temperature PT (SET*, PET, UTCI) Example Germany: PT + adaptation approach (HeRATE) Level 1: variable threshold 1986-1998 for strong heat load is exceeded for 2 consecutive days and indoor mean operative temperature during nighttime is higher than 24 C Level 2 : threshold for extreme heat load is exceeded (PT [12 UTC] >38 C) Advantages Physiologically relevant no fitting to local climate needed (exception extreme climatic conditions) Adaptation is included Disadvantages Relatively complex (2 models: indoor and PT) Difficult to communicate Skill on climate time scales problematic (radiation, humidity and wind are input parameters) 16
Perfect Heat Health Warning System Perfect Heat Health Warning System reliable easy to handle effective Forecast skill Health relevance Heat budget approaches No complicated modelling Easy to implement Low requirements for input data universal Trigger interventions to prevent heat related health impacts communication sufficient lead time 17 Picture Source: Fotalia
Perfect Heat Health Warning System Perfect Heat Health Warning System reliable easy to handle effective Forecast skill Health relevance Consideration of adaptation No complicated modelling Easy to implement Low requirements for input data universal Trigger interventions to prevent heat related health impacts communication sufficient lead time 18 Picture Source: Fotalia
Indices for Heat Health Warnings e.g. HeRATE, Excess Heat Index acclimatisation (EHI accl ) Example Germany / EuroHEAT: T12 UTC + HeRATE Consideration of adaptation Information about probability that threshold for heat is reached or exceeded (lead time 10 days) weather threshold 40 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 0 10 20 30 40 50 weighted mean temperature of the last 30 days 19
Indices for Heat Health Warnings Consideration of adaptation e.g. HeRATE, Excess Heat Index acclimatisation (EHI accl ) Example Germany / EuroHEAT: T12 UTC + HeRATE Information about probability that threshold for heat is reached or exceeded (lead time 10 days) 20
Perfect Heat Health Warning System Consideration of adaptation Perfect Heat Health Warning System reliable easy to handle effective Forecast skill Health relevance No complicated modelling Easy to implement Low requirements for input data universal Trigger interventions to prevent heat related health impacts communication sufficient lead time 21 Picture Source: Fotalia
Summary and Conclusions There are many indices / methods used for HHWS Perfect index / method should: directly linked to health impacts include adaptation / acclimatization model individual thermal stress level be universally applicable and easy to handle good forecast / prediction skill on all time scales All indices have the problem that they try to assess the thermal load on populations basis Warning method should be tailored to local requirements (health interventions) and data availability (forecasts, historical data, health data) Quelle: Fotalia There is no best method for triggering heat warnings 22
Future Heat warnings Keep it simple Individualization Quelle: Fotalia There is no best method for triggering heat warnings 23
ThankYou PBPV 10/2013 24