Global Environment Outlook 5 Environnent for the future we want International workshop on Strengthening Planning and Implementation Capacities for Sustainable Development in Post Rio Context 14-16 Nov 2012, Incheon, Republic of Korea Jinhua Zhang, UNEP Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific w w w. u n e p. o r g / g e o
UNEP Mandate To keep under review the state of the global environment. UNGA Resolution 2997 (XXVII) of 1972
GEO Capacity Development
ENVIRONMENT GEO Approach: Integrated Environmental Assessment Global Regional Local D DRIVERS: Material, Human and Social Capitals Human development: population Population - demographics - economic Economic processes (consumption, production, markets and trade) scientific Scientific - and technological innovation distribution Distribution - pattern processes (inter - and Intra-generational) intra - cultural, Cultural, - social, political and institutional (including production and service sectors) processes P PRESSURES: Human interventions in the environment: - Land - use - Resource extraction External - inputs (fertilizers, (fertilisers, chemicals, irrigation) - Emissions (pollutants and waste) Modification - and movement of organisms Natural processes: - Solar radiation - Volcanoes - Earthquakes R RESPONSES S STATE AND and trends: TRENDS: to environmental challenges: formal and informal adaptation to, and mitigation of, environmental change (including restoration) by altering human activity and development patterns within and between the D, P and I boxes i.e., i.a. through: science and technology, policy, law and institutions. Natural capital atmosphere, : land, water and biosphere Environmental impacts and change : Climate - Change and Depletion of the Stratospheric Ozone Layer - Biodiversity change Pollution, - degradation and / or depletion of air, water, minera ls and land (including desertification) HUMAN SOCIETY I IMPACTS Change in human well - being broadly defined as human freedoms of choice and actions, i.a. to achieve: - security - basic material needs - good health - good social relations which may result in human development or poverty, inequity and human vulnerability. Demographic, social (institutional) and material factors determining human well - being Environmental factors determining human well - being - Ecological services such as provisioning Provisioning services (consumptive use), cultural Cultural services (non consumptive - use), regulating Regulating services and and supporting Supporting services (indirect use) - Non ecosystem - natural resources i.e. hydrocarbons, minerals and renewable energy - Stress i.a. diseases, pests, radiation and hazards TIME: 1987 2007-2015(short term) 2050 (medium term) (long term)
Global Environment Outlook 5
What is in GEO-5? S T A T E A N D T R E N D S Drivers Atmosphere Land Water Biodiversity Chemicals and waste Earth system Africa Asia and the Pacific Europe Latin America and the Caribbean North America West Asia R E G I O N A L P O L I C I E S Scenarios and Sustainability Transformation G L O B A L R E S P O N S E S Global Responses
State & Trend of the Global Environment The current changes to our planet climatic events floods droughts - sea level rise temperature rise pollution emerging diseases extinction of species are unprecedented in human history
State & Trend of the Global Environment An Earth System Perspective As human pressures on the Earth System accelerate, several critical global, regional and local thresholds are close or have been exceeded such as Biodiversity loss Climate change Nitrogen cycle interference Water G G ll oo bb aa ll EE nn vv ii rr oo nn m m ee nn tt O O uu tt ll oo oo kk -- 55
State & Trend of the Global Environment Water 1. More than 1 in 10 people will lack access to safe water supply in 2015 2. Water Scarcity- 80% of the world live in areas with high water security threats 3. Global withdrawals have tripled over the last 50 years 4. Groundwater pollution Arsenic-compounds are linked to the deaths of 250,000 children annually in Bangladesh alone 5. Costal zones are considered hypoxic -killing fish and creating dead zones
Internationally Agreed Goals Measuring Progress and Gaps
Global responses: legal and policy framework 1971 2011 Growth in ratification of environmental treaties
Realization of goals how are we doing? Insufficient data / too soon to assess 14 goals Significant progress 4 goals Further deterioration 8 goals Some progress 40 goals Little or no progress 24 goals 90 international environmental goals and objectives assessed G l l o b a l l E n v i i r r o n m e n t t O u t t l l o o k -- 5
Internationally agreed goals 国际商定目标
State & Trend of the Global Environment Drivers of environmental change Population: Now 7 billion, 10 billion by 2100 Economy grew 20 fold in 20 th Century Global materials use increased 8 fold Globalization world trade, transport, exporting emissions
Selected Regional Priorities Regional priority environment and development challenges Africa Asia and the Pacific Europe Latin America and the Caribbean North America West Asia Environmental governance Climate change Energy Air pollution Land Freshwater Oceans and seas Biodiversity Chemicals and Waste Selected as cross-cutting Selected as a theme Priorities for all Regions
Actions & Solutions by Countries Maldives targets climate neutrality by 2019 Removal of fossil fuel subsidies Promote alternative energy sources Combining adaptation planning and infrastructure Working with local communities China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan
Actions & Solutions by local Communities Viet Nam s pilot Payment for Forest Ecosystem Services Locally-Managed Marine Areas (LMMA) in the Pacific More than 12 000 square kilometres (km 2 ) are under LMMA. About 500 communities in 15 Pacific Island states Helped achieve widespread livelihood and conservation objectives Improved livelihoods of 40,000 rural poor. Protected 209,705 ha of threatened forest. Resulted in a national policy on Payment for Forest Environmental Services.
Outlook to 2050 Conventional scenarios = Business as usual Sustainable scenarios = For a sustainable world
Outlook to 2050 business as usual scenario Continuing on the current trajectory would lead to major environmental damage and a serious loss of ecosystem services by 2050. It would leave many people without sustainable access to food, water and energy Sustainable world scenarios How societies could meet some of the 2050 targets or, at least, join a trajectory that would make meeting such targets more feasible. Complex transformations required Conventional scenarios = Business as usual Sustainable scenarios = For a sustainable world
Solutions at the global level Setting measurable goals and targets Enhancing the effectiveness of global institutions Investing in enhanced capacities for addressing environmental change Supporting environmentally sound technologies Strengthening rights-based approach and access to environmental justice Deepening and broadening stakeholder engagement
Solutions at the global level Setting measurable goals and targets Need for clear long-term environment and development targets and for stronger accountability in international agreements Setting clear quantifiable goals and targets at the global level which be customized and translated to the national level is a fundamental response option Investing in enhanced capacities for addressing environmental change Capacity for complex transformations from business as usual to a sustainable world Accomplishing complex transformations requires a gradual but steady accelerating transition process The transition process needs to be based on adaptive management
Solutions at the global level Supporting environmentally sound technologies Mechanisms from collaborative R&D Accelerating the innovation and diffusion of technologies critical to the transition Deepening and broadening stakeholder engagement Broad-based social contracts grounded in jointly developed visions of a sustainable future would help bring key stakeholders on board Transforming both production and CONSUMPTION patterns
Solutions at the global level Solutions are within reach but urgent, ambitious and cooperative action is imperative to meet internationally agreed goals and targets to avoid irreversible changes to the life support functions of the planet and further escalating economic, environmental and human well-being costs. GEO-5 Summary for Policy Makers
Fifth Global Environment Outlook Environnent for the future we want THANK YOU w w w. u n e p. o r g / g e o