C-Si cell Technology: Trends for manufacturers and suppliers - identified by the ITRPV (SEMI International Technology Roadmap for PV) Dr. Markus Fischer, Hanwha Q Cells GmbH
OUTLINE Hanwha Q Cells at a glance General considerations on c-si PV manufacturing ITRPV findings in cell manufacturing Materials Processes Products Summary and Outlook 2
OUTLINE Hanwha Q Cells at a glance General considerations on c-si PV manufacturing ITRPV findings in cell manufacturing Materials Processes Products Summary and Outlook 3
KEY FIGURES Hanwha Q CELLS : a premiere provider of photovoltaic solutions and one of the global PV industry s strongest brands of solar modules, systems and projects 2014 Overall production capacity in Thalheim in Malaysia Capital increase 2013 more than 1.5 GWp* 230 MW 1300 MW* $188.5 million (USD) Employees worldwide more than 1,600 * by the end of 2014 4
LOCATIONS Think global, act local Germany Berlin United Kingdom London USA San Francisco, Irvine Canada London, Ontario France Aix-en-Provence Germany Thalheim Korea Seoul Japan Tokyo Corporate headquarters Branch locations Malaysia Selangor Australia Sydney 5
HANWHA GROUP Backed by a strong partner As a member of the Hanwha Group one of South Korea's 10 largest corporations since 2012, Hanwha Q CELLS is backed by a strong partner with a proud 60-year history. The Hanwha Group has successful global operations in the three industries listed below. Finance Engineering & Construction Service & Leisure Key Figures, Hanwha Group Total sales (2013): $ 35.1 billion (USD) Total Assets (2013): $ 117.0 billion (USD) Net income (2013): $ 869.0 million (USD) Employees: 38,000 6
VALUE CHAIN Complete coverage of the entire PV value chain Silicon Wafer Cell Module System Monitoring O&M Financing 7
PRODUCT PORTFOLIO We focus on the market with high Quality products Engineered in Germany Hanwha Q CELLS provides a market-oriented product portfolio optimized to serve all the relevant target groups and market segments in the photovoltaic industry. Q6LMXP3-G2: MONO UP TO 4. 67W/ 19.2% Q6LPT3-G3: MULTI UP TO 4. 38W/ 18% Q.PEAK S-G3 48 cells (215-225) Q.PEAK-G3 60 cells: (265-280) Q.HOME Q.PRO-G3 multi 60: (250-270) Q.MEGA Q.FLAT 8
OUTLINE Hanwha Q Cells at a glance General considerations on c-si PV manufacturing ITRPV findings in cell manufacturing Materials Processes Products Summary and Outlook 9
ANNUAL PV INSTALLATIONS [MWp] Situation of PV installations Overall Worldwide PV installations: > 170 GWp, c-si dominated ( >90%) Trend continued installation w/ 40 70 + GWp /a Last years installations: 2012: 30.8 GWp 2013: 37.6 GWp Expectations for the years to come*: 2014: 46 + GWp 2015: 53 + GWp 2016: 65 + GWp? Growth regions: 2004 2012: Europe; Future: Asia + Americas* 70.000 RoW INDIA > 90% 60.000 50.000 40.000 30.000 20.000 10.000 0 CHINA USA UK ITALY JAPAN RoE FRANCE GERMANY 3.000 3.800 2.700 4.800 1.600 2.300 1.900 2.700 1.600 6.800 5.000 3.600 2.400 3.200 1.800 3.500 7.400 7.500 7.600 4.200 10.100 6.600 6.100 1.700 13.700 7.500 4.700 6.800 4.200 3.100 3.600 4.700 2.900 8.500 3.300 13.600 7.500 7.900 11.600 4.400 15.600 7.900 9.800 2.300 1.500 1.600 3.300 2.200 2.700 3.200 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E * Source: IHS, Solarbuzz, Bank Analysts, Hanwha Q CELLS Market Intelligence 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014E 2016E Asia-Pacific Euope Americas 10
Market trends of technical innovations - Qu Vadis PV? Introduction of a new technology follows the logistic function or S-shape curve * Development of railway technology (1830 until 1890)** Development of PV module installations follows a similar rule but how in detail? N t = G 1 + e k(c t) G = 1.5 Mio. km k = 0.08; c = 1895 G = 9.0 TWp k = 0.38; c = 2024 Life cycle bell-shaped curve year 0 boom years year of saturation S-shape curve of cumulative growth 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 - logistic growth approx. * Meyers Konversations Lexikon, Leipzig1894 ** D. Kucharavy et. al.; Application of S-Shape Curve, TRIZ Future Conference 2007, Frankfurt 2007 11
Historic market trends of technical innovations Progress in a technology can be visualized in price experience curves Log log plot of price vs. volume sold While sold volume doubles the price is reduced by a certain factor DRAM: price experience factor 40%* TFT - displays: price experience factor 35%* PV-modules: price experience factor 21% * W. Hoffmann; Perspektiven der Photovoltaik, Physik Journal Februar 2014, Whiley VCH Verlag GmbH, Weinheim 12
The PV module price experience curve The challenging price race of the PV industry QU VADIS? clear goal: competitive PV-based power generation What measures have to be taken to keep path? The ITRPV roadmap describes the way 13
Cost considerations in c-si Cell manufacturing Example: mc-si based module prices 01 2010: 1.87 $/Wp 01 2013 : 0.69$/Wp 08/2014: 0.65$/Wp) prices for poly Si are rising, module prices fall slightly module pricing does not reflect poly-si/wafer cost increases pressure to reduce cell/module conversion cost remains in focus 14
OUTLINE Hanwha Q Cells at a glance General considerations on c-si PV manufacturing ITRPV findings in cell manufacturing Materials Processes Products Summary and Outlook 15
[g/cell] ITRPV results materials - cell Pastes are most costly non - Si materials - Ag accounts for 10% of Cell price and depends strongly on Ag pricing! Reduction is mandatory as Silver is most expensive material Challenge to paste suppliers, printing technologies, module interconnection - supposed replacement by Cu (delayed due to reliability and availability) 0,160 0,140 0,120 0,100 200mg @1000$/kg = 4.9 $cent/wp ( 30%) 48t/GWp 730t 2012 (30GW) (2012 values)l 100% 140mg @690$/kg = 2.3 $cent/wp ( 14%) 33t/GWp 920t 2013 (40GW) 90% 80% 100mg @690$/kg = 1.7 $cent/ Wp ( 10%) 24t/GWp 1100t 2014 (46GW) 70% 60% 0,080 50% 16 0,060 0,040 0,020 0,000 2013 2014 2016 2018 2021 2024 Silver per cell Plating in production 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Plating in production?
Technical solutions for Silver reduction - Silver saving at front side BB and finger layouts - optimized rear side BB layouts Typical Cells* 2010 Current Cells* 2014 Source: data sheets of mc-si cells : GinTech, Hareon, Hanwha Q CELLS, JA Solar, Motech, 17
OUTLINE Hanwha Q Cells at a glance General considerations on c-si PV modules manufacturing ITRPV findings in cell manufacturing Materials Processes Products Summary and Outlook 18
ITRPV results processes cell manufacturing -Efficient use of production equipment is mandatory Challenge: increase tool throughput, tool up time (SEMI E10) + yield / eta of standard cell + introduce high eta cell concepts eliminate bottle current bottle necks smart upgrade existing lines prepare for new lines w/ lower invest / MWp ITRPV Scenarios: Year Front-end [wafer/h] (chemical + thermal) evolutional scenario progressive scenario Single line back-end [wafer/h] (metallization + classification) evolutional scenario progressive scenario 2014 3600 3800 3000 3200 2016 3800 4000 3200 3700 2018 4600 5400 3600 4300 2021 5400 6600 4000 6000 2024 6200 7200 5400 7200 Throughput of new tools 19
Recombination current [fa/cm 2 ] Recombination current [fa/cm 2 ] ITRPV results processes cell technology Reduction of recombination losses for p-type cells is on a good way: - J0 bulk reduction by material improvements approaching p-type Si limit - J0 front reduction improved diffusion /new pastes contacting challenge - J0 rear reduction by rear side passivation new concepts are ramping n-type material overcomes p-type bulk limitations (but requires even lower J0rear and J0front technologies) 325 300 275 250 225 175 150 125 200 175 100 150 75 125 100 50 75 50 25? 25 0 2013 2014 2016 2018 2021 2024 J0 rear min (e.g. HJT concepts) J0 front min (e.g. HJT concepts) J0 bulk min 0 2013 2014 2016 2018 2021 2024 J0 bulk J0 front J0 rear 20
ITRPV results processes material ITRPV technology requirement for p-type bulk material: reduction of J0 bulk is mandatory - Enables implementation improved front and rear-side - Reduces cost/wp + improved energy pay back (a) (b) Industry solutions for p-type mc-si material different casted mc-si materials (a) Standard mc; (b) HPM High Performance (HP) mc-si (offered by GCL, GET, LDK, Nexolon, SAS,.) HPmc-Si stabilizes share of casted Si enables high eta mc-si concepts n-type mono enables highest eta concepts BUT: steady higher mono price of 20% 30% the race is open! 40% 60% 50% 50% 21
IQE (%) [ohm/square] ITRPV results processes cell front side (1) Requirement: reduce J0 front below 100 fa/cm² ITRPV trend of Phosphorus doped emitter sheet resistance: 100 Ω are supposed to become mainstream in production 100 130 120 80 110 60 100 Ω 100 40 20 0 400 600 800 1000 1200 wavelength (nm) Solutions: Standard emitter Emitter w/ low doping between fingers 90 80 70 60 2013 2014 2016 2018 2021 2024 Phosphorous doping (p-type cells) Selective emitter (SE) or homogenous doped (HE) emitter techniques @ front SE requires precise alignment of metal -print to high doped area HE require doping profile engineering and sophisticated pastes 22
ITRPV results processes cell front side (2) Solutions: w/ and w/o additional processing steps Selective emitter (SE) techniques requires precise alignment of metal-print to high doped area Improved print alignment: Baccini/AMAT, Asys, DEK,. Silicon inks: Innovalight/DuPont Etch back emitter: Schmid Laser doping: Manz, Centrotherm, Rena Ion implantation: Varian/AMAT, Kingstone/Tempress, Intevac.. Homogenous doped emitter techniques: require doping profile engineering excellent contacting properties Fine line print w/ plating: Improved Ag pastes: Direct plating: Xjet, Schmid, Rena,. DuPont, Heraeus, Samsung,.. Meco (Ni/Cu). 23
[µm] [ohm/square] ITRPV results processes cell front side (3) Technology development in screen printing - products w/ finger widths below 60µm are in production (3 / 4 / n BB) further width reductions require progress in screen technology / introduction of stencils in production is suspected in 2016 new printing technologies for fine line print compete w/ single print: dual print (separate BB/ finger print) double print (aligned double printing of front side pattern) Single print is suspected to stay mainstream until 2016, beyond it s unclear 100% the race is opened! 70 90% 60 50 40 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30 20 10 30% 20%? 10% 0% 2013 2014 2016 2018 2021 2024 0 2013 2014 2016 2018 2021 2024 Finger width Alignment precision screen printing - single printing screen printing - double print on FS (I.e. print front side twice) screen printing - dual print on FS (I.e. separated print of BBs and fingers) 24
IQE (%) ITRPV results processes cell rear side Requirement: reduce J0 rear below 100 fa/cm² Solutions: - Rear passivation layer: candidates are SiO 2, SiN x, Al 2 O 3, a-si,.. - Rear metallization and rear mirror: Al-PVD, Al-Pastes - Rear contact concepts: Laser fired contacts, laser contact opening,.. Commercial process solutions: - Centrotherm (Centaurus), Singulus (Perceus) Layer deposition tool suppliers: ALD: Levitech, Rena/SoLayTech,, PECVD: AMAT, Manz, MB-Roth&Rau,.. Cell concepts in production on p- type mc-si or mono Si : Gintech, Hanwha Q Cells, Hareon, JA Solar, Motech, REC, Solarworld, Sunrise,Trina n + -Emitter Rear metallisation ARC SiN x p-type mc Si Point contact Front metallisation Rear surface passivation Example: Hanwha Q Cells Q.ANTUM Technology 100 80 60 40 20 Standard rear side rear mirror 25 400 600 800 1000 1200 wavelength (nm) 0
OUTLINE Hanwha Q Cells at a glance General considerations on c-si PV modules manufacturing ITRPV findings in cell manufacturing Materials Processes Products Summary and Outlook 26
ITRPV results products cell Expected market share of c-si cell concepts - Double side contact cells will stay main stream - PERC cell concepts (p/n type) will gain share over BSF - HIT cells may be gain up to 10% - rear-side contact cells to gain up to 20% share in 2024 - Bifacial cell types may be part of all concepts w/ up to 15% share rear-side contact cells double side contact cells 27
ITRPV results products cell/module Trends for c-si cells Efficiencies of p-and n-type c-si cells will rise - stabilized efficiencies only are considered - gap between mono and multi remains - n-type cells will enable highest eta concepts Trend of output power of 60 cell modules (high eta back contact not available 156x156mm cell format) calculation considers: - cell efficiency + module improvements - acidic texturing assumed for mc-si, HP mc-si - alkaline texturing assumed for mono/mono-like - mono wafers considered as pseudo square HP mc-si will enable 300W modules 28
ITRPV results LCOE Expected trend of Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) 3.3 to 6.5 $ct / kwh are possible in 2024 with ITRPV improvements 29
OUTLINE General considerations on c-si PV modules manufacturing ITRPV findings in cell manufacturing Materials Processes Products Summary and Outlook 30
Summary / outlook ITRPV shows: - C-Si cell technologies contribute for continues efficiency increase - Improvements in manufacturing and materials backbone cell technologies - cost per Wp will be reduced by Increasing efficiency / module power AND reducing the production cost /piece Assumptions: 06/12: 0.83 $ct/wp (92 GWp) : pricing was at cost level, 12/13: 0.64 $ct/wp (150GWp): cost is below pricing avg. annual shipment to be between 40 70 GWp / year Combining efficiency gain AND cost/piece reduction is mandatory Module cost may reach 33 $ct / Wp in 2024 (enabling margins) Open: What about PV production capacity requirements and pig cycle? 31
Market outlook: How will be logistic growth in PV? Approach: consider different markets w/ different growth (G i, k i, c i ) grit parity time determines max growth parameter c i Assumption: 4.68 TWp around 2050 - covering 16% of electricity (IEA*) P PV = n i=1 N i ; N i t = G i 1 + e k i (c i t) Region(s) G i (market 2050+) k i (growth slope) c i (max growth) ROW 1400 GW 0,2 2030 USA 600 GW 0,19 2025 PRC/India/Asia 2300 GW 0,3 2019 EU /JP 380 GW 0,39 2015 Challenges: - Which role plays replacement? depending on PV life time significant contribution 2040 - How much PV prod. capa is required? logistic growth beyond 2030 Capa increase depends on growth slope of markets * Technology Roadmap Solar Photovoltaic Energy, 2014 edition, International Energy Agency IEA, Paris 2014, 32
ITRPV outlook: PV growth + learning continues Approach: consider different markets w/ different growth (G i, k i, c i ) grit parity time determines max growth parameter c i Assumption: 4.68 TWp around 2050 - covering 16% of electricity (IEA*) P PV = n i=1 Challenges: N i ; N i t = G i 1 + e k i (c i t) - Which role plays replacement? depending on PV life time significant market contribution 2040 - How much PV prod. capa is needed? logistic growth beyond 2030 slopes k i +G i determin the market Region(s) G i (market 2050+) k i (growth slope) c i (max growth) ROW 1400 GW 0,2 2030 USA 600 GW 0,19 2025 PRC/India/Asia 2300 GW 0,3 2019 EU /JP 380 GW 0,39 2015 * Technology Roadmap Solar Photovoltaic Energy, 2014 edition, International Energy Agency IEA, Paris 2014, 33
ITRPV outlook: PV growth + learning continues 34
Hanwha Q CELLS GmbH Sonnenallee 17-21 06766 Bitterfeld-Wolfen, Germany Tel. +49 (0) 34 94 66 99-23222 Fax +49 (0) 34 94 66 99-23000 For more information: : www.q-cells.com For ITRPV: www.itrpv.net THANK YOU 35 State of the art cell manufacturing trends in materials, processes and products