Economic Contributions of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Food Industries in Polk County, Florida Sponsored Project Report to Polk County, Florida Farm Bureau Alan W. Hodges, Ph.D., Extension Scientist Thomas J. Stevens, Ph.D., Research Associate University of Florida-IFAS Food and Resource Economics Department Gainesville, Florida February 26, 2015
Objectives Profile economy and population of Polk County. Examine historical trends in population, demographics, economic activity. Compare Polk County agriculture to other counties in Florida and the U.S. Examine linkages of agriculture to other sectors of the economy. Evaluate total economic contributions of agriculture, natural resources, and food industries in terms of employment, output, income and tax revenues. Make recommendations for local economic development and protection of agriculture.
Sources and Methods USDA Census of Agriculture (2002, 2007, 2012) Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System (2001-12). IMPLAN state/county economic database (2001-12): industry output, employment, value added (GDP), labor income, taxes, commodity consumption, imports/exports, transfer payments (Implan Group, LLC). IMPLAN regional economic input-output model for Polk County used to evaluate multiplier effects of industry activity. 3
Located in the central Florida region between Orlando and Tampa on I-4 corridor. Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA Total area 2,011 square miles (5th largest county in FL). Abundant surface waters: 213 square miles of lakes, rivers, streams (2nd largest for noncoastal county). Heritage of agriculture and mining since 1800s, in citrus, cattle, and phosphate. Lake Wales Ridge is biodiversity hotspot Polk County Facts 4
Polk County Population and Employment, 2000-12 Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Profile table CA30. Employment includes both full-time and part-time jobs. 5
Polk County Population and Employment, Annual Percent Change, 2000-12 Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Profile table CA30. 6
Percent of Population 65+ 20% Share of Population Aged 65 Years+, in Polk County, Florida, and U.S., 2000-13 19% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% Polk % 65 Florida % 65 U.S. % 65 Sources: University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research; U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services, Administration on Aging 7
Demographic Profile of Polk County, Florida Polk County Florida Persons under 5 years, percent, 2013 6.0% 5.5% Persons under 18 years, percent, 2013 23.0% 20.6% Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2013 19.2% 18.7% Female persons, percent, 2013 51.0% 51.1% White alone, percent, 2013 79.9% 78.1% Black or African American alone, percent, 2013 15.6% 16.7% Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2013 (b) 19.0% 23.6% Foreign born persons, percent, 2009-2013 10.2% 19.4% Language other than English spoken at home, pct age 5+, 2009-2013 19.2% 27.4% High school graduate or higher, percent of persons age 25+, 2009-2013 82.4% 86.1% Bachelor's degree or higher, percent of persons age 25+, 2009-2013 18.1% 26.4% Median value of owner-occupied housing units, 2009-2013 $111,400 $160,200 Median household income, 2009-2013 $43,113 $46,956 Persons below poverty level, percent, 2009-2013 18.2% 16.3% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, State and County Quickfacts
Direct Employment in Polk County Industries, 2012 (Fulltime and Part-time Jobs) Information & Communications, 1,741, 1% Manufacturing, 7,484, 3% Professional & Technical Services, 29,875, 12% Real Estate & Financial Services, 22,423, 9% Households, 3,245, 1% Health Care, 27,216, 11% Government, 16,179, 6% Education, 19,530, 8% Consumer Services, 8,643, 3% Construction, 13,167, 5% Total: 258,938 jobs Agriculture, Natural Resources, Related, 46,365, 18% Source: IMPLAN Group, LLC, 2013 Wholesale Trade, 7,430, 3% Retail Trade, 24,678, 10% Social Services & Organizations, 9,465, 4% Transportation, 15,180, 6% Travel & Entertainment Services, 5,869, 2% Utilities, 449, 0% 9
Direct Output in Polk County Industries, 2012 (Million Dollars) Information & Communications, $660, 2% Households, $2,161, 6% Health Care, $2,755, 8% Government, $1,428, 4% Manufacturing, $2,924, 8% Professional & Technical Services, $2,851, 8% Real Estate & Financial Services, $3,969, 11% Retail Trade, $1,805, 5% Social Services & Organizations, $568, 2% Education, $1,079, 3% Consumer Services, $889, 2% Construction, $2,086, 6% Total: $36.18 Billion Agriculture, Natural Resources, & Related, $8,915, 25% Source: IMPLAN Group, LLC, 2013 Transportation, $1,695, 5% Travel & Entertainment Services, $444, 1% Utilities, $417, 1% Wholesale Trade, $1,533, 4% 10
Billion 2012 Dollars Output Trend for Major Industry Groups in Polk County, 2001-12 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 Wholesale Trade Utilities Travel & Entertainment Serv. Transportation Social Services & Organizations Retail Trade Real Estate & Financial Services Professional & Technical Serv. Manufacturing Information & Communications Households Health Care Government Education Consumer Services Construction Agric., Natrl. Resrcs, & Related Source: IMPLAN Group, LLC, 2013
Farm Numbers, Land Area and Income in Polk County, 2002-12 Farm Numbers, Land, Income & Government Payments 2012 2007 2002 2007-12 percent change 2002-07 percent change Number of Farms 2,415 2,768 3,114-12.8% -11.1% Land in Farms (acres) 520,899 549,071 626,634-5.1% -12.4% Average Size of Farm (acres) 216 198 201 9.1% -1.5% Total Cropland (acres) 125,095 136,281 189,970-8.2% -28.3% Permanent Pasture and Rangeland (acres) 249,944 254,835 303,046-1.9% -15.9% Total Woodland (acres) 114,951 116,271 78,191-1.1% 48.7% Market Value of Products Sold ($1,000) $350,276 $398,956 $284,787-12.2% 40.1% Average Value of Products Sold Per Farm ($) $145,042 $144,132 $91,454 0.6% 57.6% Government Subsidies & Payments ($1,000) $5,214 $6,221 $4,069-16.2% 52.9% Demographic Characteristics of Farm Operators Principal Operators - Age, Average (Years) 60.0 60.2 60.3-0.3% -0.2% Farm Operators (number) 3,761 4,060 4,216-7.4% -3.7% Female Operators (percent) 31.7% 28.8% 23.6% Source: USDA-NASS, 2012 Census of Agriculture, Volume 1, Geographic Area Series, County Profiles. 12
Market Value of Agricultural Commodities in Polk County, Florida, and State and National Rankings, 2012 Item Value ($1000) State Rank National Rank All Agricultural Commodities 350,276 5 222 Crops 316,031 5 76 Vegetables, melons, & potatoes 8,235 22 248 Fruits, tree nuts, & berries 264,249 2 23 Nursery, greenhouse, floriculture, & sod 42,951 9 72 Livestock and animal products 34,245 16 1,191 Cattle & calves 24,277 5 671 Poultry & eggs 131 24 (D) Hogs & pigs 17 32 1,889 Sheep, goats, wool, mohair, & milk 98 15 1,367 Aquaculture 5,628 4 58 Other animals & other animal products 2,048 7 116 Source: USDA-NASS, 2012 and 2007 Census of Agriculture, Volume 1, Geographic Area Series, County Profiles. (D) = Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual farms. 13
Crop Acreage and Livestock Inventory in Polk County, Florida and State and National Rankings, 2012 Item Number State Rank National Rank Crops (Acres) Oranges, all 71,405 2 3 Other oranges (Non-Valencia) 35,619 1 2 Valencia oranges 35,786 2 2 Grapefruit 3,197 3 5 Forages 21,541 3 895 Livestock Inventory (Number) Honeybee colonies 17,570 2 30 Cattle & calves 92,855 4 145 Goats, all 2,237 4 184 Horses & ponies 2,994 6 200 Layer chickens 7,778 15 723
Polk County Agricultural Product Sales, 2012 (Thousand dollars) Fruits, nuts & berries, $264,249, 76.0% Nursery, greenhouse, floriculture, & sod, $42,951, 12.3% Vegetables, melons & potatoes, $8,235, 2.4% Unreported, $2,642, 0.8% Cattle & calves, $24,277, 6.9% Aquaculture, $5,628, 1.6% Other animals, $2,048, 0.6% Poultry & eggs, $131, 0.0% Sheep, goats, wool, & milk, $98, 0.0% Hogs & pigs, $17, 0.0% Total: $350 million Source: USDA, 2012 Census of Agriculture 15
Polk County Citrus Industry Over 70,000 acres bearing groves Production of 24,596 boxes (2012-13) 6 processing plants 11 packinghouses Employment impacts: 15,768 jobs Output impacts: $3.1 Bn (29% of state) Source: USDA-NASS Quickstats, and UF-IFAS study (2014)
Output by Polk County Agriculture, Natural Resources & Food Industry Groups (million dollars) Food & Kindred Products Distribution, $1,672, 19% Food & Kindred Products Manufacturing, $2,675, 30% Crop, Livestock, Forestry & Fisheries Production, $652, 7% Agricultural Inputs & Services, $3,015, 34% Forest Products Manufacturing, $596, 7% Mining, $298, 3% Total: $8.92 billion Nature-based Recreation, $6, 0% Source: IMPLAN Group, LLC 2013 17
Direct Employment and Output by for Agriculture, Natural Resources and Food Industry Groups and Selected Sectors (>100 jobs), 2012 Industry Group / Sector Employment (Jobs) Output (M$) Crop, Livestock, Forestry & Fisheries Production Support activities for agriculture and forestry 6,486 253 Fruit farming 2,190 281 Cattle ranching and farming 282 37 Greenhouse, nursery, and floriculture production 272 33 Dairy cattle and milk production 118 13 Mining Mining and quarrying other nonmetallic minerals 697 235 Extraction of oil and natural gas 211 32 Agricultural Inputs & Services Landscape services 2,688 149 Fertilizer manufacturing 1,796 2,732 Veterinary services 734 46 Pest control services 567 31 Food & Kindred Products Distribution Food services and drinking places 15,847 892 Retail Stores - Food and beverage 4,852 277 Wholesale trade, food & kindred products 2,346 484 Retail lawn and garden centers 250 19 Industry Group / Sector Forest Products Manufacturing Employment (Jobs) Output (M$) Wood container and pallet manufacturing 615 84 Paperboard container manufacturing 373 161 Sanitary paper product manufacturing 322 264 Engineered wood member and truss manufacturing 104 24 Food & Kindred Products Distribution Food services and drinking places 15,847 892 Retail Stores - Food and beverage 4,852 277 Wholesale trade, food & kindred products 2,346 484 Retail lawn and garden centers 250 19 Nature-based Recreation Golf courses 108 6 Source: IMPLAN Group, LLC 2013
Million $s in Sales Output (Sales) Trend for Agriculture, Natural Resources and Food Industry Groups in Polk County, 2001-12 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Agricultural Inputs & Services Food & Kindred Products Manufacturing Food & Kindred Products Distribution Crop, Livestock, Forestry & Fisheries Production Forest Products Manufacturing Mining Nature-based Recreation Source: IMPLAN Group, LLC 2013. Values expressed in 2012 dollars. Data not available for 2003, 2005 19
Employment in Polk County Agriculture, Natural Resources and Food Industry Groups, 2012 (Fulltime and Part-time Jobs) Food & Kindred Products Distribution, 23,295, 50% Crop, Livestock, Forestry & Fisheries Production, 9,655, 21% Agricultural Inputs & Services, 5,868, 13% Food & Kindred Products Manufacturing, 4,869, 11% Total: 46,365 jobs Nature-based Recreation, 108, 0% Mining, 1,000, 2% Source: IMPLAN GROUP, LLC., 2013 Forest Products Manufacturing, 1,569, 3% 20
Fulltime and Part-time Jobs Employment Trend in Agriculture, Natural Resources and Food Industry Groups in Polk County, 2001-12 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Food & Kindred Products Distribution Crop, Livestock, Forestry & Fisheries Production Agricultural Inputs & Services Food & Kindred Products Manufacturing Forest Products Manufacturing Mining Nature-based Recreation 0 Source: IMPLAN Group, LLC. Data not available for 2003 and 2005. 21
Selected IMPLAN Multipliers for Polk County, Florida Sector Name Employment Jobs per Million $ Output Value Added Dollars Per Dollar Labor Income Fertilizer manufacturing 6.40 1.781 0.527 0.327 Food services & drinking places 28.32 1.843 1.322 0.798 Fluid milk & butter manufacturing 6.88 1.448 0.589 0.301 Wholesale trade businesses 17.02 1.974 1.505 0.846 Frozen food manufacturing 9.76 1.543 0.812 0.507 Fruit & vegetable canning, pickling, & drying 9.14 1.489 0.791 0.425 Distilleries 10.12 1.880 1.024 0.475 Fruit farming 20.50 1.981 1.320 0.827 Retail Stores - Food & beverage 30.01 2.031 1.597 1.040 Support activities for agriculture & forestry 36.91 1.974 1.641 1.236 Mining & quarrying other nonmetallic minerals 12.86 1.842 1.364 0.709 Services to buildings and dwellings 27.89 1.792 1.250 0.882 23
Total Economic Contributions of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Food Industry Groups in Polk County, 2012 Industry Group Agricultural Inputs & Services Crop, Livestock, Forestry & Fisheries Production Food & Kindred Products Distribution Employment (Jobs) Output Value Added Labor Income Other property income Business Taxes - - - - - - - - - - Million Dollars - - - - - - - - - - - - 18,988 5,140 1,380 893 364 123 15,615 1,305 807 561 210 37 24,226 1,776 1,089 676 214 199 Food & Kindred Products Manufacturing Forest Products Manufacturing 19,845 4,692 1,714 943 577 195 4,521 959 414 220 166 27 Mining 2,715 502 294 153 122 19 Nature-based Recreation 112 6 4 3 1 0 Total 86,023 14,382 5,702 3,449 1,654 600 Estimates include regional multiplier effects
Total Economic Contributions of Agricultural Commodity Groups in Polk County, 2012 Commodity Group Employment (Jobs) Industry Output (Mn$) Value Added (Mn$) Labor Income (Mn$) Other Property Income (Mn$) Business Taxes (Mn$) Fruit & Vegetable Farming & Processing Forestry, Wood & Paper Product Manufacturing 15,990 2,684 1,312 800 427 87 5,796 1,107 513 282 193 36 Environmental Horticulture 3,968 291 175 135 31 9 Livestock Farming & Animal Products Manufacturing 1,609 807 150 62 82 23 Fishing & Seafood Products 675 175 39 30 7 2 Note: Estimates include regional multiplier effects. 25
Trends in Total Output Contributions of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Food Industry Groups in Polk County, 2001-12 Note: Estimates include regional multiplier effects. Values expressed in 2012 dollars. Data not available for 2003 and 2005 26
Total Tax Contributions of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Food Industries in Polk County, 2012 Local and State Taxes Source: Implan Group, LLC Million Dollars Percent Tax on Production and Imports: Sales Tax 279.7 21.1% Tax on Production and Imports: Property Tax 218.4 16.5% Tax on Production and Imports: Other Taxes 27.3 2.1% Personal Tax: NonTaxes (Fines - Fees) 15.6 1.2% Other Local and State Taxes and NonTaxes 25.3 1.9% Total Local and State Taxes 578.6 43.6% Federal Taxes Social Ins Tax- Employee Contribution 157.8 11.9% Social Ins Tax- Employer Contribution 188.2 14.2% Tax on Production & Imports: Excise Taxes 41.6 3.1% Tax on Production & Imports: Custom Duty & NonTaxes 16.5 1.2% Corporate Profits Tax 103.5 7.8% Personal Tax: Income Tax 237.1 17.9% Total Federal Tax 749.5 56.4% Total Local, State, and Federal Taxes 1,328.1 100%
Conclusions Farmland is 45 percent of Polk County s total land area, but declined over 100,000 acres since 2002, due to development, land conversion. County has high rankings for ag. commodities in state and U.S. Agricultural sales growing slowly (increased 23% since 2002). Citrus industry is dominant in Polk County, but threatened. Extensive linkages between ag. producers, processing, distribution, allied inputs and services sectors. Strong growth in food manufacturing and distribution. Large export base for farm and food products. Agriculture, natural resources and food industries are important contributors to Polk County economy (2012): Employment: 86,023 jobs, 33% of county workforce. Value added: $5.70 billion, 31% of GDP Labor income: $3.44 billion. Tax revenues: $1.33 billion overall, $280 million in sales taxes, $218 million local property taxes.
Thank You for Your Attention! Project report available at: http://fred.ifas.ufl.edu/economic-impactanalysis/publications.shtml Author Contact Alan W. Hodges University of Florida 1113 McCarty Hall, P.O. Box 110240 Gainesville, FL 32611-0240 Telephone: 352-294-7674 Email: awhodges@ufl.edu