NAE Convocation of the Professional Engineering Societies The Promises and Challenges Facing Renewable Electric Power Generation April 20, 2009 Larry Papay
America s Energy Future Changing Focus of Energy Policy economic vitality environmental quality Energy Policy national security
Status of Renewable Power in the U.S. Renewables are a modest 10% of all generated power Over 7 % is hydroelectricity Biomass (~2%) and wind (~1%) make up most of the rest But growth rates for renewables are impressive Wind: 23% compounded growth (1997-2006) Solar PV: over 40% compounded growth (2000-2005), but from a very low base What, then, might the future have in store?
US Wind Resource Map of Various Wind Power Classes
Map indicating potential new transmission corridors for integrating 300 GW of wind
Supply Curve for Wind without Accounting for PTC, Transmission, and Integration Cost
Solar energy resources in the United States
Resource Finding There is clearly a great deal of wind and solar resources and lesser amounts of geothermal, biomass, and hydropower to develop However, it is also clear that these resources are distributed unevenly around the country
160 2005$/MWh 140 120 100 80 60 40 Average Price of Wind Power WithPTC Average Price of Wind Power WithoutPTC 20 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Operating Cost of Natural Gas Combustion Turbine Operating Cost of Natural Wholesale Price Range Gas Combined Cycle for Flat Block of Power Impacts of the PTC on the price of wind power compare to costs for natural gas
Installed Wind Project Costs over Time
Wind Capacity Factors in 2006 by Region and Vintage of Wind Facility
Global PV Module Production 2000 2007 and Average Module Price during the Same Timeframe
Learning Curve for PV Production
A Vision for the Distribution Grid of the Future Utility Communications Internet Efficient Building Systems Renewables Consumer Portal & Building EMS PV Dynamic Systems Control Distribution Operations Advanced Metering Control Interface Plug-In Hybrids Data Management Distributed Generation & Storage Smart End-Use Devices
Storage Technolgies and Costs of Energy and Power
Technology Finding Clearly some technologies are sufficiently developed and are being deployed, such as wind turbines, solar PV and concentrating solar power, traditional geothermal, and biomass. There are other technologies that are further away, including enhanced geothermal, wave and tidal energy, and ocean thermal gradient technologies.
Potential Capacity and Current Busbar Costs in Terms of Nominal LCOE of Concentrating Solar Power
Price, Customer Cost after Subsidy, and Number of PV Installations per year in California under CEC Incentive Programs 2006 $ kw Capacity 14.00 12.00 Average Installed Price ($/W) Average Customer Cost PV Capacity (kw) 140,000 120,000 10.00 100,000 8.00 80,000 6.00 60,000 4.00 40,000 2.00 20,000-1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 -
Crystalline Silicon and Thin-Film Shipment Market Shares in the US, 1997-2006
Levelized Cost of Energy for Selected Renewable Technologies in 2010 and 2020 from various studies (note EIA 2010 numbers are for 2011) LCOE (2006$/kWh) Biomass LCOE (2006$/kWh) Wind 0.120 0.120 0.100 0.100 0.080 0.060 2010 2020 0.080 0.060 0.040 2010 2020 0.040 0.020 0.020 0.000 AEO 2008 Reference EPRI 2007 Full Portfolio Scenario EPRI 2007 Limited Portfolio Scenario 0.000 AEO 2008 Reference EERE 2008 Baseline EERE 2008 Program Case EPRI 2007 Full Portfolio Scenario EPRI 2007 Limited Portfolio Scenario Black and Veatch/DOE 2008 LCOE (2006$/kWh) 0.350 Photovoltaic LCOE (2006$/kWh) 0.180 Solar Thermal 0.300 0.250 0.200 0.150 2010 2020 0.160 0.140 0.120 0.100 0.080 2010 2020 0.100 0.060 0.050 0.040 0.000 AEO 2008 Reference EERE 2008 Program Case EPRI 2007 Limited Portfolio Scenario EPRI 2007 Full Portfolio Scenario SEIA 2004 Baseline SEIA 2004 Roadmap 0.020 0.000 AEO 2008 Reference EERE 2008 Program Case EPRI 2007 Limited Portfolio Scenario EPRI 2007 Full Portfolio Scenario
Economics Finding For renewable technologies to improve their cost competitive position will require improvements in technology and stable and clear public policies that should result in greater penetration and accelerate production and deployment at meaningful rates Clearly wind (and regionally hydrothermal geothermal) enjoys the best cost competitive position of all (non-hydroelectric) renewable technologies
Life-cycle Emissions of Greenhouse Gases (in CO 2 Equivalents) for Various Sources of Electricity
LCA of Land Use for Various Renewable and Non-renewable Technologies in Square Meters per MWh/yr
Impacts Finding Renewable electricity technologies are attractive since they generally have inherently low life-cycle carbon dioxide emissions, other atmospheric emissions and and water use Because of the diffuse nature of the resources, they need to be spread over large collection areas but this mitigated by the facts that the land may be used for multiple use and impacts tend to remain localized and not spread beyond the land areas directly in use
Key barriers impacting the wide-scale deployment and integration of renewable energy sources Relatively high costs Performance uncertainty Supply of materials Inertia Perception of risk Inadequate workforce Complex decision making Infrastructure limitations
US and World Wide Wind Turbine Material Usage
Estimated (2004) Annual Production Levels and World Material Reserves of Raw Materials Used in PV Cell Manufacturing. (Note, non U.S. Reserves of Ge are a Best Guess)
Annual US Wind Power Installations (GW) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Expiration: 06/30/99 12/31/01 12/31/03 12/31/05 12/31/07 12/31/08 1998 5-month PTC lapse 1999 Renewal or Extension: 12/19/99 03/09/02 10/04/04 08/08/05 12/20/06????? 2000 2-month PTC lapse 2001 2002 9-month PTC lapse 2003 2004 PTC extended 5 months early 2005 2006 PTC extended 12 months early 2007? 2008 projection 2008 Effects of PTC Expiration and Extension on Wind Power Investment
The Cash Flow Valley of Death for the Process from Product Development to Commercialization
Annual Venture Capital Investment in Wind, Biofuels, and Solar
Annual Private Investments in Wind, Biofuels, and Solar
Deployment Finding The rate of deployment of renewable technologies will require consistent and long term, public policies and the public, as well as investment in business growth, market transformation Improvements in several areas, including labor and workforce enhancements, transmission and distribution grids, and the framework and regulations under which the systems are operated, also are required for widespread deployment
Annual and Cumulative Generation Needs to Achieve 20-percent Wind by 2030
Net Present Value (NPV) Direct Electricity Sector Costs for 20-percent Wind Scenario and No New Wind Scenario (US$2006) NPV direct costs for 20-percent wind scenario (billion US$2006) Wind Technology O&M Costs $51 $3 Wind Technology Capital Costs $236 $0 Transmission Costs $23 $2 Fuel Costs $813 $968 Conventional Generation O&M $464 $488 Conventional Generation Capital Costs $822 $905 Total $2,409 $2,366 NPV direct costs for no new wind after 2006 scenario (billion US$2006)
CO 2 Emissions Reductions Resulting from 20-percent Wind Scenario Compared to the No-New Wind Reference Case. Also shown is the Trajectory for Reducing CO 2 Emissions by 80%
Percent of the Total Electricity Generation from Renewable Sources from Analysis of CSA Scenarios 2020 2030 Reference Core Case High Cost Reference Core Case High cost Hydropower 6.87 7.18 7.37 6.23 6.63 7.13 Geothermal 0.55 0.98 1.21 0.65 1.14 1.45 Municipal waste 0.44 0.56 0.65 0.44 0.54 0.89 Biomass 1.79 5.54 5.30 1.72 3.74 4.58 Solar 0.059 0.06 0.061 0.066 0.068 0.095 Wind 2.33 5.76 6.73 2.57 5.63 13.94 Total renewable 12.0 20.1 21.3 11.6 17.8 28.1 Total non-hydro renewable 5.13 12.92 13.93 5.37 11.17 20.97
Average Annual Growth Rate for Each Renewable Energy Source from 2005-2030 for Two CSA Scenarios and AEO2008 Reference Case in Percent Hydropower Geothermal Municipal waste Biomass Solar Wind Reference 0.49 3.05 1.88 9.45 18.51 8.78 Core Case 0.57 5.38 2.93 18.02 18.51 12.03 High Cost 0.71 6.34 5.08 21.94 19.4 15.85
Scenarios Finding The technological readiness of conventional hydropower, wind, solar photovoltaics and concentrating solar power, hydrothermal geothermal and biopower technologies are such that they could comprise up to 20 percent of all electricity generation by 2020, up from about 10 percent today By 2035, further accelerated deployment based on current and improved technologies, and supportive public policies, could result in non-hydro renewables could collectively provide 20 percent or more of domestic electricity generation
A diamond with a flaw is better than a pebble without imperfection Chinese proverb Gov. Linda Lingle (Hawai i) on the need to begin moving ahead with renewable energy