Mineral resources in Europe Elias Ekdahl, Director General Geological Survey of Finland Presented by Pekka Nurmi International Symposium on the Planet Earth Trondheim 7-8 February 2008
Topics Global trends China phenomen EU sself-sufficiency self sufficiency and minerals supply European mining industry Geological Surveys and minerals sector Summary with a visionary perspective EU s mining; is it a sunset business? 2
Global trends China phenomen Shanghai 2004 (E. Burtynsky) 3
China activities in Africa, Latin America and Australia Kiina China import from Africa (2005) Brasilia Peru Bolivia Mali Tsad Burkina Sudan Nigeria Faso Guinea Kongo Gabon Kongo DT Angola Chile Australia Argentina Etelä Afrikka Oil Base metals Cotton Soya Others 4
China s Share of World Consumption in 2005 Source: BGR 5
Flows of Seaborne Iron Ore Trade in 1960-2006: 121-725 million tons Three companies are controlling 71 % of the seaborne iron ore trade: BHP Billiton, CVRD, Rio Tinto 18.5 2 21.5 11 95 8.5 6.2 8 255 30 270 1 11 exports in million tons Source: ThyssenKrupp Steel, Eurostat 6
Steel Consumption (tons per one US$ of GDP) sumption t/1 million GDP Steel Con 30 3) Asian Boom. High metal intensity of GDP. WELFARE FOR MORE THAN 25 2 000 MILLION PEOPLE 20 15 10 5 1) World infra reconstruction after the II world war. Economical recovery. WELFARE FOR 500 MILLION Deflated GDP to 2004 $ terms PEOPLE 2) World restructuring emphasizing on services. Collapse of metal prices. FAILURE OF GLOBAL GROWTH 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Source: Jourdan 2006 7
Scenario: Projected World Steel Consumption Average growth rates 1970 2005 (3,7%) crude stee el consumpt tion mill.t 1 400 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 India 5.9 % PR China 9.0 % USSR / Russian Federation 1.0 % OECD and Eastern Europe 0.9 % 200 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: BGR 8
Relative Price Development of the LME Metals 5 4 3 prices April 11 spot prices Aluminium Lead Copper Nickel Zinc Tin 2 853 US $/ t 2 045 US $/ t 7 971 US $/ t 50 800 US $/ t 3 582 US $/ t 14 435 US $/ t 2 1 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source: BGR 9
Global exploration 1995-2008 12 10 8 6 4 2 Billion USD Projected 0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Sources: RMG, MEG 10
Global exploration Geography 2006 Sources: RMG, MEG 11
Exploration in Nordic countries 2007 160 Million EUR 140 120 100 80 60 Sweden Norway Finland 40 20 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: RMG 12
EU s self-sufficiency and minerals supply Self-sufficient in aggregates and in most industrial minerals Large producer of natural stones Net importer of most metals Annual imports of minerals into the EU 1999 2004 Data source: Eurostat 13
EU consumes 20-35% of the most important base metals in the world EU s own mine production Metal Zinc 9.4 Titanium 87 8.7 Lead 7.3 Copper 6.0 Chromium 56 5.6 Iron 2.2 Aluminium 2.2 Nickel 17 1.7 Gold 0.8 % Global EU s import of metals and minerals is 23 billion Source: BGS 14
Metals supply of the European union Import dependence more than 80 % Ireland Pb, Zn Norway Al, Ti Sweden Cu, Fe, Pb, Zn, Au, Ag Finland Zn, Cr Russia South America Portugal Cu Spain Zn, Pb, Au, Ag, Al Poland Cu, Pb, Zn, Ag Romania Pb Bulgaria Cu, Pb Greece Ni, Pb Ukraine Fe, Ti Turkey Cr Asia South Africa 15
Copper: European imports and production in 2005 Imports: 2 700 000 t RoW: 18 Countries Turkey PNG 25 2.5 36 3.6 Brazil 3.7 3.8 Argentina 10.9 Chile 34.0 Production: 836 500 t Poland: 511 500 t Peru 14.9 Indonesia 26.5 Rest of Europe Poland Sources: Eurostat, BGR database 16
Iron Ore: European imports and production in 2005 Imports: 146 200 000 t RoW: 23 Countries RSA 10.7 Russia 4.9 6.3 Mauritania 7.0 7.3 Canada 7.3 8.7 Ukraine Australia Brazil 47.8 Production: 27 032 950 t Sweden: 23 256 000 t Rest of Europe 2.1% Sweden Sources: Eurostat, BGR 17
European mining industry on a global scale 14. Poland 1.10 % 1. China 10.1% 1% Gold Copper Iron ore Nickel Lead Zinc PGMs Diamonds Others Source: RMG 18
Metal mine production in EU countries 2005 Total value in M (based on 10 y aver. prices) Source: RMG Share of total t value 19
Metal mines in EU countries in 2005 Total value million Production start 2008 Value Produced metals Mtpa Tonnage Source: RMG 20
Geological surveys and minerals sector To provide natural geoinformation and local expertise Attraction of investments To act as knowledge base for decision, making on all levels (political, economic, environmental) balanced judgement based on a holistic view To communicate with all stakeholders better public understanding of mining industry To develop new technologies scientific/high tech innovations, eco-efficient processes 21
The challenge of the Minerals Sector TRENDS Global Social Responsibility Growing Environmental Awareness Increasing Demand of Minerals MINING/ NON RENEWABLE RESOURCES? SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT/ GROWTH CHALLENGES/ OPPORTUNITIES New Technologies Solid Information Base for Balanced Decision Making International Policies/ Best Practises is to foster the renewal of the traditional industrial i sector 22
Geology and sustainable development Securing material supply for growing economy, developing society and sound environment 2 1 Decoupling Time 2030 Major challenges for R&D Exploration techniques Zero-impact extraction technologies Mine closure & reclamation Recycling, novel materials Material handling and logistics Life cycle and material flow analysis Environmental accountancy for natural resources 23
Summary with a visionary perspective EU s mining; i is it a sunset business? Trends in global metal mining since 1850 Cu Source: W Sames and RMG 24
Where are the major metal reserves in future? Distribution of more than 50 % of the global proven and probable reserves Poland 6% 18% Russia 22% 7% USA Jamaica 9% 35% Kazakhstan 31% China 32% Iron Ore 18% Bauxite 30% Brazil Chromite Copper Chile PGM REE Guinea 88% 12% RSA 7% Indonesia 14% 19% Australia Sources: BGR, USGS 25
But there are still space for new discoveries also in Europe We have: High quality basic geological data and know-how Mineral potential areas and units We need: New 3 D models of metallogenic belts and evolutionary knowledge New exploration technology Deep geophysics and -chemistry Promotion, governmental encouraging and sound legislation New mines in Finland: Kittilä Au 3 Moz (10 Moz) Talvivaara Ni,Cu,Zn 569 Mt New world class deposits can yet be found in Europe 26
EU is waking up European Technology Platform on Sustainable Mineral Resources Securing the future supply of the European raw materials. Supporting the revival of exploration in EU s potential areas. Developing innovative and sustainable technologies. Implementing best practices. Reuse, recovery and recycling as well as new product applications. Creating new added value through RTD-based technology, leadership, education and dtraining. i ProMine integrated project plan to be submitted in March, 2008 27
Fennoscandian Shield EU s major prospective region 28
Ore deposits in the Earth s crust Open pit mine Pyhäsalmi mine (deepest in EU) Deepest mines in the world > 3km 29
Rio Tinto s vision for future mining Open pit Underground 30
New technology in exploration Airborne- EM Airborne TEM Titan 24 (ground) Mapping Drilling 50 m Seismic sounding 300-800 m Several kilometers 31
Summary Mining is not a sunset business Today s mining means advanced exploration techniques and modern mining and processing technology 32