Climate change and the ocean Hurricane intensification Sea level rise, loss of coral reefs Global conveyor belt Could less sea ice formation + melting Greenland ice sheet stop thermohaline circulation? Reorganize the subpolar gyre? 1
YoungerDryas analogy 12,800 years ago Abrupt cooling in N. America & Europe Massive (9500 km 3 ) freshwater discharge to the N. Atlantic Source: LamontDoherty EO Complete shutdown not expected Models of 0.54.0º C temperature increase project: 3540% decrease in thermohaline circulation Recovery between 21002200 Red arrows of m/s/ decade indicate slowing subpolar gyre from 1992002 Source: NASA, 2004 Corals & climate change Coral polyps 50% loss expected by 2030 Functional extinction by 2050 Thousands of individual but genetically identical polyps 2
Class Anthozoa Subclass: Hermatypic (hard) coral reef building Mutualistic relationship with unicellular algae Algae provide carbs from photosynthesis Corals provide safety, CO 2, nitrogenous wastes Subclass: Ahermatypic (soft) coral: nonreef building Lack zooxanthellae Tropic or polar waters Coral Reef Alliance Red sea finger Photo: Paul Kay Hermatypic coral Energy Symbiotic algae (80%) Colony shares algae and nutrients Consumption of plankton, small fish Stinging cells on tentacles Coral reef ecosystem Metropolis of the sea Support the lives of 25% of marine species 4,000 species fish 7,000 coral species Coral species are 240 million years old (hominids: 5 million years old) Coral reefs existing today began growing 50 million years ago Majority are 5,000 and 10,000 years old Distribution of all benthic organisms Distribution of all benthic organisms Distribution of coral reefs 3
Coral: anthropogenic threats Sewage Too many nutrients, too many algae Human interference Tourism Destructive fishing practices Coastal development Coral mining 1. Change in water temperature (1º enough) Projected 5ºF increase in sea surface temp. by 2100 Global or isolated events Corals expel algae (coral bleaching) when stressed Increased chance for survival if conditions return to normal J Hoogesteger! 1. Change in water temperature (1º enough) 2. Change in ph (ocean acidification) Dropped 0.02 per decade Concern over rate of change Source: Pearson and Palmer 1. Ocean gets more acidic ph = log [H + ] (increase H +, decrease ph) 4
200 % Change in Concentration 150 Carbonic acid Bicarbonate ion Carbonate ion 100 % change 50 0 50 100 Glacial Preindust. Present 2!CO 3!CO 2. Less carbonate available for shelled organisms 2. Less carbonate available for shelled organisms Source: NSF, Impacts of Ocean Acidification Surface ocean: CaCO 3 supersaturated Affect on marine life Form weaker skeletons due to less carbonate (CO 3 ) Dissolution of skeleton 3. CaCO 3 begins dissolving shallower decrease by 40200 m since 1700 s CaCO 3 dissolves Major planktonic calcifiers Coccolithophore Foraminifera Pteropod Source: NSF, Impacts of Ocean Acidification Major benthic calcifiers a) Algae ( d e f) Bry g) M h) Echino i) Crus Hurricane intensification Water above 79ºF Low vertical wind shear High humidity Source: NSF, Impacts of Ocean Acidification 5
Hurricane intensification Hurricane intensification Hurricanes fueled by warm water Source: Union Concerned Scientists Source: NOAA Hurricane intensification Sea level rise 1. Thermal expansion 2. Melting land ice Source: Union Concerned Scientists Source: IPCC Sea level rise 1. Thermal expansion 2. Melting land ice Sea level rise population potentially displaced by current sealevel trends, 2050 Extreme = >1 million High = 1 million to 50,000 Medium = 50,000 to 5,000 Source: IPCC Source: IPCC 6
Source: IPCC 7