Economic Viability of Mississippi Gulf Coast Rail Service NCITEC Project 2013-33 Dr. Waheed Uddin Seth Cobb 1
Dr. Patrick Sherry, NCIT Director, University of Denver Waheed Uddin, PhD, PE Professor and Director CAIT The University of Mississippi @drwaheeduddin http://www.olemiss.edu/projects/cait/ncitec/ Dr. Burak Eksioglu, NCITEC Director, Mississippi State University 2
Current Mobility Problems on Mississippi Gulf Coast The Mississippi DOT s strategic planning MULTIPLAN report indicate that most of Interstate- 10 corridor has average speeds (in both directions) at or below 55 mph (88 kmph). The high commercial traffic volume increases congestion on highways, safety risks to other auto commuter traffic, and vehicular emissions. Significant traffic volume from within Coastal counties on I-10 and US-90. @drwaheeduddin 3
Solution: Mass Transit Modes Passenger Rail reduces number of cars on roads plus less driving miles per year per car Intermodal integration increases rail share, frees lane space and reduces: o Congestion on roads and incidents o Congestion related wastage of fuel o Crashes and Stress on commuters o Harmful air pollutants (CO, PM, NOx and Ozone) o CO 2 and GHG emissions @drwaheeduddin 4
Environmental Degradation and Public Health Impacts of Transportation Modes Modal comparison of passenger transport emissions 254 million road transport vehicles in U.S. 2.7 times less CO 2 emission and 200 less cars on roads Credit: European Environment Agency/Allianz, SE @drwaheeduddin 5
Existing Transportation Infrastructure on Mississippi Gulf Coast Map I-10 and US90 East West; US49 North South @drwaheeduddin 6
Total I-10 & US-90 Daily Traffic Volume: 49,690 East of Mississippi Total I-10 & US-90 Daily Traffic Volume: 46,247 West of Mississippi @drwaheeduddin 7
Solution: Revitalization of Passenger Rail Service Before and after rail service studies o Traffic volume demand and through traffic on Gulf Coast highways (Estimated 46-49 thousand daily traffic volume East and West borders) o In-county commuter trips and auto traffic volume (Total 364,993 daily vehicle trips in three Gulf Coast counties) o Ridership estimation for rail service (About 10% vehicle trips or up to 34,000 vehicle users in these counties) o Revenue & economic development impacts (concessions at rail stations, jobs created due to revived rail service and integration with other local transport modes such as transit or privately owned short haul shuttle transport services). @drwaheeduddin 8
Rail Alternatives for Mississippi Gulf Coast Tram/Street Car No; reduces capacity & occupies lanes on highways BRT Not suitable; reduces capacity & occupies lanes on highways LRT Not suitable; reduces capacity & occupies lanes on highways Elevated Monorail No; high capital costs Seattle Monorail @drwaheeduddin 9
Rail Alternatives for Mississippi Gulf Coast Commuter Rail Yes; on existing rail lines and serving as intercity rail 10
Revitalization of Passenger Rail Service Comprehensive Value Engineering (VE) and life cycle assessment (LCA) o Capital improvement cost; shared use of rail tracks o Annual operational and maintenance costs o Annual revenues (fare, advertisement, sales tax for city/county, city and state gaming tax) o Other quantifiable benefits (safety of casino patrons, reduced congestion, less pollution and associated public health costs, reduction in carbon emissions; more patrons/visitors) Economic impact analysis also considers fuel savings by car owners and additional external benefits of jobs created/saved, employer participation, transit connectivity. @drwaheeduddin 11
Existing Infrastructure 12
Proposed Commuter Rail Lines: Casino Train E-W and Beach Train N-S Beach Train N-S Casino Train E-W 13
Value Engineering and Life Cycle Benefit-cost Economic Analysis of Gulf Coast Rail Lines NCITEC 2013-33: Mississippi Gulf Coast Rail Restoration Study (Life Cycle Economic Analysis Assuming 5% Annual Discount Rate) Rail Alternative Commuter Rail E-W Commuter Rail N-S CL Length; Track 200 km; CSX rail track 110 km; ; KCS rail track Rail Infrastructure 6 train stocks; 10 stations 4 train stocks; 3 stations Initial Infrastructure Cost $335.2 Million $226.9 Million Riders per Day 20,000 10,000 Present Worth Cost-Benefit Analysis Cost Benefit Cost Benefit * See next slide for detailed present worth benefit cost analysis Breakeven Year (considering only direct revenues) Within 6 years Within 7 years @drwaheeduddin 14
Value Engineering and Life Cycle Benefit-cost Economic Analysis of Gulf Coast Rail Lines * Continued from previous slide for detailed present worth benefit cost analysis NCITEC 2013-33: Mississippi Gulf Coast Rail Restoration Study (Life Cycle Economic Analysis Assuming 5% Annual Discount Rate) Rail Alternative Commuter Rail E-W Commuter Rail N-S CL Length; Track 200 km; CSX rail track 110 km; ; KCS rail track Present Worth Cost-Benefit Analysis Cost Benefit Cost Benefit 1-Year Present Worth Analysis, $ Million 344 344 230 247.1 5-Year Present Worth Analysis, $ Million 375 1,489 247 1,030 10-Year Present Worth Analysis, $ Million 407 2,656 263 2,110 20-Year Present Worth Analysis, $ Million 450 4,287 286 2,907 50-Year Present Worth Analysis, $ Million 504 6,279 313 5,049 Breakeven Year Year 1 Year 1 (considering all revenue sources, fuel saving, and economic benefits) Benefit/Cost Ratio 1.0 1.1 Breakeven Year (considering only direct revenues) Within 6 years Within 7 years @drwaheeduddin 15
Value Engineering and Life Cycle Benefit-cost Economic Analysis of Gulf Coast Rail Lines * Continued from previous slide for life cycle analysis of Societal impacts NCITEC 2013-33: Mississippi Gulf Coast Rail Restoration Study (Life Cycle Economic Analysis Assuming 5% Annual Discount Rate) Rail Alternative Commuter Rail E-W Commuter Rail N-S CL Length; Track 200 km; CSX rail track 110 km; ; KCS rail track Initial Infrastructure Cost $335.2 Million $226.9 Million Riders per Day 20,000 10,000 Breakeven Year (considering only direct revenues) Within 6 years Within 7 years CO 2 Emission reduction (due to less cars on highways): 2,397 Tons per Year 1,253 Tons per Year Added Sales Tax Revenue Assumed: Annual 5% Annual 2.5% Annual 10% Added Casino Patrons & Visitors/Tourists: 1.48 Million (boost to state economy) Total Jobs created from commuter rails: 500 (added economic benefits) Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2012; National Transit Database; Mississippi DOT @drwaheeduddin 16
Highlights of Gulf Coast Commuter Rail Revival Casino Train in E-W corridor of the existing CSX rail from New Orleans to Mobile Sustainable mobility for up to 34,000 vehicle users Reduction in traffic congestion on I-10 & US-90 Safe travel alternatives for casino patrons from within the coastal counties, New Orleans, and Mobile Beach Train in N-S corridor of the existing KCS rail from Hattiesburg to Gulfport Service for coastal residents to employers in north Reduction in emissions and public health hazards Safe mass evacuation of coastal communities in case of a coastal hurricane disaster Increase of 1.48 million casino patrons & revenue each year Casino Train Call to Action Total 500 new jobs and boost to regional economy Beach Train http://www.olemiss.edu/projects/cait/ncitec/ncitec-whitepaper-gc.pdf @drwaheeduddin 17
Opportunities for ITS Technology Implementation For Commuter Rail Lines Real-time Video Surveillance on Rail Tracks, Stations, Trains Traveler s Information System & Messages Wi-Fi Availability Cost included in fare Coastal Evacuation Mississippi Emergency Authority and Mississippi DOT @drwaheeduddin 18
White Paper Report available from CAIT-NCITEC web site. @drwaheeduddin 19