Growing for good? The European Heat Pump Market - Status and outlook Thomas Nowak Secretary General Heat pump markets and the need for quality Thomas Nowak European Heat Pump Association 1
2 European Heat Pump Association (EHPA) 124 members from 22 countries Heat pump manufacturers Component manufacturers National associations Consultants Research & test institutes EU-wide representative of heat pump industry Registered in Brussels EHPA represents the majority of players in the EU heat pump industry!
When we are talking about heat pumps in Europe Heating Cooling Hot water For all cold, average, warm climates Stiebel-Eltron Jussi Hirvonen Residential Commercial Industrial applications Alone or in combination (hybrid systems) 3 Friotherm
WP product / system 2011 ROHS 2012 WEEE 2009 RES-Directive 2010 EPBD 2012 EED Lot 1,2 2013 Ecodesign Lot 10 2013 Energylabel 2014 Ecolabel Hydronic + buildings 2014 F-Gas building country region Europe 20-20-20 target 2030 Climate & Energy framework 4
REVISION Renewable energy sources Directive 2009/28/EU REVISION Energy performance of buildings Directive (2010/31/EU) REVISION Energy Efficiency Directive (2012/27/EU) NEW Energy labelling framework Directive (2010/30) REVISION Emission trading scheme (ETS) reform NEW Directive on common rules for internal electricity market NEW Primary energy factor calculation (PEF) 5
European Heat pump markets + Market Report 2016 leaner & quicker stats.ehpa.org interactive online tool sales forecast 6 = spreading the word produce relevant information multiply the voices foster credibility
Market development 2007 2016 Accumulated: 9.5 million units installed 7
Heat pump sales 2007-2016 By energy source 8
Sanitary hot water sales 2007-2016 Signs of saturation 9
Top 10 heat pump markets by volume > 881k units (89%) 10
Market performance Sales per 1000 households 11
Market potentials If Norway was everywhere 6.8 million units 12
Employment 2016 full time equivalents: 53 155 total employment is higher technology leadership is in Europe 13
Market development: boilers and heat pumps 6.5 million boilers per year vs. 9.3 million heat pumps installed 8.000.000 7.000.000 6.000.000 5.000.000 4.000.000 3.000.000 2.000.000 1.000.000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 boilers heating HP Source: BRG / EHPA 14
December 2015 climate agreement: 2 C max, better yet, 1.5 C 15
35 years later? Business as usual Nationally determined contributions (NDC) 1.5 pathway 50% likelihood 2.0 pathways 66% likelihood Source: Rogelj et al. (2015): Energy system transformation for limiting end-of century warming to below 1.5C. Nature Climate change 16 Growing for good? The European Heat Pump Market - Status and outlook IEA HPC 2017 Rotterdam Thomas Nowak
17 Final energy demand for EU28 by end-use for H/C in all sectors in 2012 [total: 12 820 TWh] Cooling =326 TWh!! % values apply on total! ource: Fraunhofer ISI et al. (2016): Report WP 1, p.83
Energy shares vs. emission in EU dwellings 2008 10% 14% 10% 13% 4% 1% 2% District heating 7% 10% Oil District heating 4% 16% Gas Coal 22% Oil Gas Coal Biomass Biomass Heat pumps direct electric Heat pumps direct electric 18 45% Energy used Growing for good? The European Heat Pump Market - Status and outlook IEA HPC 2017 Rotterdam Thomas Nowak Source: www.entranze.eu, own calculations. Data from 2008 42% GHG emissions
The hexagon of heat pump benefits numbers for 2016 installed stock of 9.3 million units Renewable: 105 TWh Energy efficient 134 TWh final energy saved Employment 53 155 full time jobs CO2 reduction 27.1 Mt 19 Demand response: 298 GW PM2.5 reduction
A possible vision for the 2050 energy system Source: http://www.energyplan.eu/ 20
Join decarbheat www.decarbheat.eu 21
Conclusion The glas is at least half full 22 Thank you for you attention