IEA Task 40 Sustainable International Biomass Trade: aspects for the Central European Region Lukas Kranzl, Gerald Kalt, Julian Matzenberger Transnational Workshop Trade of Biomass in Central Europe Vienna, 5 October 2010
What is the role of biomass for building a sustainable society? The vision of sustainable food production and agriculture Diets Land use management The vision of a sustainable supply of products and services Efficient processes Sustainable resource base: Biobased products and industries The vision of a sustainable, zero-carbon energy system: Sustainable level of resource consumption: efficiency, sufficiency Sustainable mix of energy sources Biomass: - Is the only renewable energy source that itself acts as an energy storage. - Is the only renewable energy source that can be easily transported over long distances. 2
Which role will these key characteristics of biomass (storage, long-distrance transports) play? How can we make use and benefit of these characteristics? What are the risks and (how) can we reduce them? => Depends strongly on the type of bioenergy use and our biomass paradigm! 3
A lot of open questions... Data for bioenergy transport: Consistency and reliability of data sources, connection between energetic and non-energetic biomass streams,... Scenarios for the future development of bioenergy trade and its impact on local markets Linkage of sector analyses and seperated aspects Forestry and agricultural product market models (Bio-)Energy system models and market analyses Land use change analyses marginal and degraded lands => data!? Case studies of impacts in supply and demand regions Policy issues Ecological sustainability issues Biorefineries and non-energetic demand of biomass Logistics and trade analyses... 4
Since 2004 Task leader: Copernicus Institute Utrecht University, Andre Faaij, Martin Junginger, Peter Paul Schouwenberg, RWE/Essent Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Finland, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, UK, USA (expressed interest: Australia, Ireland) www.bioenergytrade.org
IEA Bioenergy Task 40: objectives Core objective: to support the development of a sustainable, international, bioenergy market, recognising the diversity in resources, biomass applications Biomass supply Sustainability and certification Trade market and demand dynamics Transport, logistics and trade Outreach and dissemination
Selected highlights of the IEA Task 40 research Opportunities and barriers for international bioenergy trade Updated overview of bioenergy sustainability certification initiatives published World Bio-trade Equity Fund Study World Biofuel Maritime Shipping Study Bio-trade & Bioenergy Success Stories 2nd Generation Biofuels and Trade - an exploratory study Country reports www.bioenergytrade.org 7
Biomass market situation and growth in Central Europe 8
Central Europe: cross country comparison (1) Share of bioenergy in the gross inland consumption (2007), values in PJ/a Source: Eurostat 2009; Kalt et al 2010 9
Central Europe: cross country comparison (2) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Transport Electricity (& CHP) Heat 20% 10% 0% AT CZ DE HU IT PL SI SK Comparison of the structure of biomass primary energy consumption for heat generation, electricity and transport fuel production in Central European countries, 2008 10
Central Europe: dynamic development (1) Share of biomass in gros ss inland consumption (%) 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: Eurostat 2009, Kalt et al 2010 AT CZ DE DK HU IT PL SI SK 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 11
Central Europe: dynamic development (2) 1.800 1.600 1.400 1.200 1.000 800 biomass & wastes (PJ/a) 600 Transport fuels Electricity and CHP District heating Heat generation 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 AT CZ DE DK HU IT PL SI SK Consumption of biomass & wastes (PJ/a) 400 200 0 600 400 200 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Consumption of Source: Eurostat 2009, Kalt et al 2010 12
Biomass trade in Central Europe 13
Net imports / exports of bioenergy (1) 2,500 2,000 Net imports of wood and wood waste for energy generation 36.0 28.8 1,500 21.6 1,00 00 t/a 1,000 14.4 PJ J/a 500 7.2 0-500 AT CZ DE DK HU IT PL SI SK 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 0.0-7.2 Sources: Eurostat (2009); Kalt et al 2010 14
Net imports / exports of bioenergy (2) 1,000 800 Net imports of wood pellets 2001 2002 16.2 600 2003 2004 10.8 1,000 t/a 400 200 2005 2006 2007 2008 5.4 PJ/a 0 0-200 -400 AT CZ DE DK HU IT PL SI SK -5.4-600 -10.8 Sources: Pellet@las (2010), Kalt et al 2010 15
Net imports / exports of bioenergy (3) Net roundwood impor rts (Million m3/a) 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 Only a part of wood residues ends up in energy generation! AT CZ DE DK HU IT PL SI SK 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 28.8 21.6 14.4 7.2 0.0-7.2-14.4-21.6-28.8 Indirect net imports of wood residues (PJ/a) Sources: : FAO Statistics (2010); own calculations 16
Net imports / exports of bioenergy (4) 600,000 500,000 Net imports of biodiesel 2005 2006 2007 2008 21.6 18.0 400,000 14.4 300,000 10.8 t/a 200,000 100,000 7.2 3.6 PJ J/a 0 0.0-100,000-200,000-300,000 AT CZ DE DK HU IT PL SI SK -3.6-7.2-10.8 Sources: EBB (2009), Eurobserv ER (2009), error bars for the years 2005 to 2007 represent data according to Eurostat (2009), Kalt et al 2010 17
Impact of biodiesel production on international trade (Germany) 3,000 2,500 Germany Demand for biodiesel production 1.000 0 t/a 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Domestic production rape seed Net import palm oil Net import rape seed Net import rape oil -500-1,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Sources: UN Comtrade (2009), Eurostat (2009), EBB (2009), Kalt et al 2010 18
Impact of biodiesel production on international trade (Austria) 300 250 Demand for biodiesel production Net import rape oil Austria 1.000 0 t/a 200 150 100 Net import rape seed Domestic production rape seed Net import palm oil 50 0-50 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Sources: UN Comtrade (2009), Eurostat (2009), EBB (2009), Kalt et al 2010 19
Net imports / exports of bioenergy (5) 200,000 Net imports of bioethanol 2005 2006 2007 2008 5.36 150,000 4.02 100,000 2.68 a t/ 50,000 1.34 PJ J/a 0 0-50,000 AT CZ DE DK HU IT PL SI SK -1.34-100,000-2.68 Sources: EBIO (2009), Eurobserv ER (2009), error bars for the years 2005 to 2007 represent data according to Eurostat (2009), Kalt et al 2010 20
Biomass streams in Central Europe: Fuelwood (TJ/yr) LV 760 LT 610 21 DK 310 570 340 PL UA 310 3,290 220 DE CZ SK 90 1,940 1,120 NL FR 560 1,120 350 100 100 HU BA AT 70 RO 50 590 140 180 CH HR SI 2,700 260 310 230 760 2,090 2,390 IT Sources: Data obtained from UN Comtrade (2009), Kalt et al 2010
0 Biomass streams in Central Europe: Wood residues (PJ/yr) EE SE 22 NO LV 4.3 0.8 0.5 LT 1.6 DK 1.3 0.9 2.0 PL 1.4 3.0 5.3 NL UA RO 0.7 0.9 DE CZ 12.5 1.0 2.3 1.4 2.2 4.2 SK 1.9 4.1 1.6 17.3 HU BA AT 4.4 1.4 4.5 1.2 0.8 0.8 11.5 0.5 CH BE 1.6 0.7 FR HR 1.5 SI 3.7 3.8 6.1 4.5 0.6 2.3 IT Sources: Data obtained from UN Comtrade (2009), Kalt et al 2010
Outlook and the global perspective 23
Biomass potentials in Central European countries Ratio of bioma ass potential to total gross inla and consumption 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Thrän et al. (2005) EEA (2006) de Wit et al. (2010) In most of these countries agriculture plays a crucial role for increasing bioenergy supply. 0% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2000 2010 2020 2030 2000 2010 2020 2030 2000 2010 2020 2030 2000 2010 2020 2030 2000 2010 2020 2030 2000 2010 2020 2030 2000 2010 2020 2030 2000 2010 2020 2030 AT CZ DE DK HU IT PL SI SK Sources: Thrän et al. (2005), EEA (2006) and de Wit and Faaij (2010) to total gross inland energy consumption (scenario according to Capros et al., 2008; PRIMES target case ) 24
Global biomass potentials Main impact parameter: Land required for food production (diets, land availability, land use management, water availability, sustainability issues,...) Bauen et al. (2010) - 2050 Smeets et al. (2007) - 2050 Hoogwijk (2003) - 2050 Faaij (2008) - 2050 Bauen et al. (2010) - 2050 Doornbosch et Steenblik (2007) - 2050 WBGU (2003) IFEU (2007) - 2050 IEA (2007) - 2030 Bauen et al. (2010) - 2008 Technical potential Sustainable potential Economic potential Historical use 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 EJ/a 25
Current shipping lanes for bioenergy Canada E. Europe & Russia W. Europe USA Japan Ethanol Wood pellets Brazil S. Africa Malaysia & Indonesia Australia Veg. oils & biodiesel Source: Junginger, Faaij, 2010 26
What might be the implications of long distance bioenergy trade? Ensure a secure, stable supply of Additional pressure on the agricultural biomass production with implications on Enable the further replacement of resource use, intensification... fossil energy Additional pressure on land use change All these issues have to be put on the Make use of the key top benefits of the political of agenda! Subsistence agriculture bioenergy in a future sustainable Marginal land => marginalised people? society: tradeability, energy GHG-emissions due to (indirect) land use storage,... And: this does not primarily depend changeon... the further development of bioenergy! Additional pressure on biodiversity Additional pressure on scarce water resources Additional pressure on social standards... Strong policy framework! 27
Sustainability criteria and certification A lot of different initiatives with different standards, aspects, objectives are currently existing. Most of them are dealing with liquid biofuels. Most of them are focusing on environmental principles. Concerns with respect to food security and socio-economic impacts are generally not included! (Some voluntary schemes include socio-economic issues such as labour and employment conditions.) Wide variety of standards, methodologies => risk of confusion in the market, abuse and shopping of standards. In spite of current limitations certification has the potential to influence direct, local impacts related to environmental and social effects. => further development and strengthening of standards and methodological frameworks! Source: Dam et al 2010 28
Outlook and conclusions (1) Building a sustainable energy system will require different ways of making use of bioenergy. This might mean to broaden our traditional biomass paradigm (biorefineries, large scale biomass conversion units, biomass as a commodity...). Partly, this has already happened in Central Europe since 2000: Continuous growth of the heating sector (mostly traditional, small scale) High growth in the electricity/chp and transport sector Since 2007: more biomass used in these new sectors than in the heating sector. => implications on biomass trade in Central Europe 29
Outlook and conclusions (2) Impact on biomass trade in Central Europe: Importing countries are importing more (e.g. woody biomass DK, IT) Some countries enlarged their export activitities (e.g. Pellets in DE, PL) Indirect effects: higher imports of paper and pulp, fibre board industry Biomass in the transport sector: strong increase of trade with biofuels, plant oil, oil seeds mainly from Eastern Europe, partly also palm oil from Indonesia, Malaysia. Despite the growing relevance of liquid biomass, woody biomass still holds the main part of international biomass trade in CE (in particular if we include the non-energetic use in the paper and pulp and fibre board industry). 30
Outlook and conclusions (3) Strong policy framework highly required for critical issues of the agricultural sector, land use management, socio-economic structures, ecological standards etc. We need this framework independent of what happens in the bioenergy sector! Certification of sustainability criteria can be an element of such a strong policy framework if: Clear, unambigous standards are set. No abuse and shopping of standards.... It s not enough to replace fossil energy by biomass (or other renewable energy): What we need is a change of energy supply and demand patterns and completely new ways of economic, societal cooperation on a local and global scale. 31