Low-Carbon Society Scenarios for India: Aligning Sustainable Development and Climate Actions P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India Presented in the Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 25 Project Symposium Tokyo, Japan, February 12, 29
India Economy-Energy-Emissions Trends 3 28 Electricity Consumption 26 Indices, Base:198=1 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 GDP at factor cost Energy consumption Energy/person Population 1 8 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 Energy Intensity of GDP 26 28 Data Sources: CMIE, CEA, Census 21, Economic Surveys and Government of India Ministry reports
Base Scenario: Assumptions Base Scenario 1. GDP Ann. Growth Rate: 7.2% from 25-5 25 Economy: 23 times larger than 25 2. Population 2: 121 Million 25: 1593 Million 3. 65 ppmv CO2e Concentration Stabilization (or 55 CO2) 4. 4.7 W/m2 Radiative Forcing 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Savings Rate?? 37 35. 33. 22.8 24.6 32 2.6 198 199 2 21 22 23 Base Year 25=1 25 2 15 1 Annual Growth Rate 25-5: 7.3% Annual Growth Rate 25-32: 8% GDP US $/person 12 1 8 6 4 Per Capita Income 5 2 25 22 235 25 2 21 22 23 24 25
Future Energy Mix: India Mtoe 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 Other Renewables Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil Coal Commercial Biomass Non Com Biomass 1, 5 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25
Future Carbon Emissions: India 8, 7, 6, Million Ton CO2 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25
Alternate Development Visions Stabilization Target and Visions 1. Global Stabilization Target Assumption: 55 ppmv CO2e Concentration 3.4 W/m2 @ 3 o C temperature increase (5:5) 2. Two Development Pathways for India: (with same total CO2 emissions from 25 to 25) 1. Conventional Vision: Climate Actions at Margin of Conventional Development path 2. Sustainability Vision: Aligning Climate Actions with Mainstream Development Actions What path shall best deliver national development goals while fulfilling Climate Commitments?
LCS via Climate Centric Actions Aim Drivers Interventions Target Allocation of Rights Carbon Market Universal Participation Market Structure/ Rules Global Greenhouse Gas Concentration Stabilization Technologies Remove Market Barriers Cooperative R&D Tech Transfer Stabilization at Minimum GDP Loss Competition/ Trade Energy Resources Energy-Mix Mandates Modify Preferences Forecasting
Vision I: Climate Centric Scenario 1. Top-down/Supply-side actions 2. High Carbon Price as main instrument 3. Climate Focused Technology Push 7, Others 6, Base CCS Million Ton CO2 5, Device Efficiency 4, Renewable Energy 3, Electricity (Fuel Switch) 2, 1, CT 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25
India: National Climate Change Action Plan 8 National Missions: 1. Solar Energy (1 MW PV/yr; 1 MW Thermal by 217) 2. Enhanced energy efficiency (1 MW saving by 212) 3. Sustainable habitat 4. Water Sector (2% water use efficiency improvement) 5. Sustaining the Himalayan eco-system 6. A Green India (6 Mil. Hectare afforestation; Forest cover from 23 to 33%) 7. Sustainable agriculture 8. Strategic knowledge for climate change
LCS with Sustainability Aim Drivers Interventions Targets Low Carbon Society Innovations Co-benefits Sustainability Technological Social/Institutional Management Aligning Markets Win/Win Options Shared Costs/Risks Long-term Vision Avoid Lock-ins National Socio-economic Objectives and Targets Global Climate Change Objectives and Targets Modify Preferences Back-casting
Vision II: 1. 2. 3. 4. Sustainability Scenario Low Carbon Price Bottom-up/Demand-side Actions Behavioural Change Diverse Technology Portfolio 7, Million Ton CO2 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 Others CCS Transport Mode Urban Planning Consumption Recycling Material Substitutions Appliance Efficiency Renewable Energy Building Electricity (Fuel Switch)
Sustainable Cities: Planning and Infrastructures Land-use Planning Building Choices Infrastructures Service Networks Technologies for Train Corridors Bus Rapid Transport System
Dematerialization 7 1 Steel Cement Steel 6 Conventional Development 3 2 Sustainable 1 2 2 Society 21 21 4 22 22 23 23 24 24 Conventional Development 15 1 Sustainable 2 Society 21 22 23 Development 4 Sustainable Society 2 21 22 23 24 25 Transport 25 5 Conventional 3 3 2 6 2 25 25 Paper 35 Demand (Million Ton) Demand (Million Ton) 4 Demand (Trillion Ton-Kms) Demand (Million (Million Ton) Ton) Demand 8 5 24 25 2 Conventional Development 1 2 Sustainable Society 21 22 23 24 25
Co-benefits of Energy Choices MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, MDG 7: Environmental Sustainability Co-benefits of South-Asia Integrated Energy-Water Market Benefit (Saving) Cumulative from 21 to 23 $ Billion % GDP Energy 6 Exa Joule 321.87 CO 2 Equiv. 5.1 Billion Ton 28.8 SO 2 5 Million Ton 1.3 Total 359.98 Bahrain Qatar!. Iran United Arab Emirates!. Uzbekistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan!.!. Herat Afghanistan Chotila Ѻ Ѻ Oman Legend Important Places Existing Gas Pipelines Ѻ Gas Pipelines under construction Proposed Gas Pipelines Existing LNG terminals Proposed LNG terminals Existing Gas Basin Saudi Arabia Yemen Somalia South-Pars Bandar-e-Abbas Iranshahar!. Delaram Proposed Gas Basin!.!. Kandhar!.!. Khuzdar Quetta Karachi Pakistan!. Nangal Ludhiana BathindaSangrur Ambala Multan Panvel Pune Maldives Sonipat Delhi Faridabad Mahesana Kalol Ujjain Jhabua NadiadAnand Rajkot Bharuch Olpad Surat Valsad Dadra ChiptunGuhagar Ratnagiri F Gadag Kochi Bareilly Nepal Shahjahanpur Auraiya Kanpur Gwalior Jagdishpuri Jhansi Kota Vijaypur Guna Solapur India Nellore F Palmaner Hassan Chennai Mangalore Chittoor Bangalore Coimbatore Tiruchchirappalli Kayankulam Tutikorin Sri Lanka Kokinada Vijaywada Patna Gaya Vishakhapattnam China Bhutan Dispur Bangladesh Kolkata Myanmar (Burma) Laos Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Spill-over Benefits / Co-Benefits More Water for Food Production (MDG1) 16 GW additional Hydropower (MDG1&7) Flood control (MDG1&7) Lower energy prices would enhance competitiveness of regional industries (MDG1)
LCS with Lower Carbon Prices 12 CO2 Price 1 Price CO2 (US $/tco2) 8 6 4 2 Conventional Society Sustainable Society 21 22 23 24 Base Case 25
Water Availability: DELHI Existing and Envisaged Water Sources for Delhi Water Supply from Various Sources 25 55 55 55 55 2 4 4 4 4 55 15 2 865 865 865 865 55 44 2 1 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 45 8 45 8 45 8 45 8 45 8 45 8 45 8 1 1 51 1 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Yamuna river bed potential NCR Augmentation (CGWB) Additional Plan Sub Surface Water Recycling of Waste Water Saving of Seepage Upper Ganga Canal BBMB Yamuna River 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 21 26 211 216 221 241 261 281 211 Year
Water Availability: DELHI Existing and Envisaged Water Sources for Delhi under Climate Change Water Supply from Various Sources Under Climate Change 25 55 2 55 4 55 55 4 4 2 15 55 692 462 2 648.75 631.45 1 135 135 45 45 135 135 8 8 45 8 45 8 135 135 288 288 45 247.2 45 1 1 22.8 8 8 5 1 1 168 168 144.2 26.4 128.8 199.2 14 14 12.4 116.2 55 4 51.7 135 45 8 192 112 31 31 372 372 372 372 248 248 248 21 26 211 216 221 241 261 281 211 Year Yamuna river bed potential NCR Augmentation (CGWB) Additional Plan Sub Surface Water Recycling of Waste Water Saving of Seepage Upper Ganga Canal BBMB Yamuna River
Sustainability: Domains, Elements and Actions Sustainability Domains Domain Typologies Key Elements (Examples) Actions/Instruments (Examples) How to sustain & enhance capital stocks in interest of present & future generations? Capital Stocks Natural Manmade Human Social Natural Resources, Ecology Buildings, Infrastructures Education, Health Institutions, Social Networks Conservation, Tax Design, Standards Investments, Access Awareness, Media How do human and natural systems evolve? How do they interact? Systems Human (e.g. Food System) Natural (e.g. Environment) Diets, Technologies Climate Change, Bio-diversity Water Management, Trade Cap & Trade, Eco-funds What are the drivers of key socio-politicoeconomic development processes? Processes/ Institutions Globalization Urbanization Industrialization Trade, Migration Urban Planning, Regulations Industry Structure, Innovation Market Reforms, Tariffs Zoning, User Charges Competition, R&D How can preferences be shaped & aligned with sustainability goals? Preferences Public Private/Personal Community Rights, Equity, Public Goods Lifestyle, Savings Norms, Customs, Traditions Social Security Choices, Freedoms Dialogue, Media
Conclusions: Low Carbon Transition with Sustainability Focus on Behavior Change & Technology RD&D/ Transfer Actions to shift from Margin to Mainstream Development vision matters to LCS transition Investments that avoids lock-ins into high emissions paths Bottom-up actions coordinate with top-down vision and policies Paradigm Shift towards Co-benefits and Co-operation : Co-benefits makes it a positive-sum game Deliver LCS at Low Carbon Price Focus on Drivers of Long-term Energy and Environment Future Even in LCS with sustainability, exclusive climate-centric actions for stabilization and adaptation will be needed, but their costs and risks shall be much lower
How this matters to post-212 negotiations? Mainstream Climate Actions with Development Priorities Focus on funding for actions which deliver Co-benefits New framework to assess investments Global Co-operation Technology transfer and cooperative R&D Investments in sustainable infrastructures in developing countries Combination of Climate and Sustainable Development Policies Combination of Market and Regulations (e.g. Carbon Price, Funds) Investments that avoid long-term carbon emissions lock-ins Measures to alter behavior (e.g. 3R) Varied Targets (e.g. Energy Intensity, CAFE Standards, Sector Targets) Thank you