Impact evaluation for: Special Program for Food Security and Productivity Enhancement of Small Farmers in Pakistan (Crop Maximization Project-II)

Impact evaluation for: Special Program for Food Security and Productivity Enhancement of Small Farmers in Pakistan (Crop Maximization Project-II)

Section A: Presentation of project

Area and Target Group Areas of intervention: 1,012 Villages: Punjab 430, Sindh 230, NWFP 160, Balochistan 150, AJK 40 and FATA 2. Description of target group or beneficiaries: Small Farmers with land holding of up to 20 acres in Punjab, 25 acres in Sindh & Balochistan, 15 acres in KPK and 5 acres in AJ&K. Size of the target group: About 30,360 farmers in 1,012 villages

Description of existing data on beneficiaries before the program started: There is considerable gap between the yield per acre of a progressive farmer and a small farmer. The small farmers lack access to credit, technical know-how, farm implements, etc, which result in the low productivity of the small farms. The credit to these farmers is provided by middlemen (Arhties) who give the farmer rate of their choice for his produce. This project proposes to help small farmers get out of the clutches of these middlemen.

Brief description of the problem tackled by the project: The project envisages enhancement of farm productivity and sustainability of agriculture for food security. It will establish collective institutions, i.e., beneficiary owned and managed 1,012 Village Organizations (VOs) in 1,012 villages of 27 districts of all the provinces, AJ&K and FATA for procurement of critical inputs / services, marketing of outputs and diversification of income generating activities. It will be a technology-led project with main focus on small and resource poor farmers having land holdings below 25 acres. A pilot project was implemented in three districts, popularly known as Sargodha Model. Finding the results to be encouraging, increase in productivity by about 30 %, Crop Maximization Project (CMP) was launched in 109 villages. Upon evaluation of this project, it was decided to implement the project on 1,012 villages, albeit with certain modifications.

Specific Objectives a). Increase agricultural productivity in rural areas of Pakistan. b). Enhance food security through provision of sustainable livelihood programs. c). Empower small farmers and agricultural producers through the establishment of self-managed rural organizations backed by appropriate laws and regulations that enable them to manage their resources efficiently and become profitable market oriented entities. d). Build sustainable financial mechanisms to channel smallholder s own resources as well as external investments into the smallholder agriculture sector.

SPECIFIC SERVICES DELIVERED TO THE PROJECT BENEFICIARIES/ PARTICIPANTS Organizing and empowering farmer s community through social mobilization, formation / registration / empowerment of 1,012 Village Organizations (VOs) and establishment / operation of revolving fund by VOs. Revolving Fund: To solve credit problems of small farmers, a Revolving Fund of Rs. 4.391 billion will be established in 1,012 villages, 50% of which will be recovered in 5 equal installments starting from 6th year of loan disbursement. The remaining 50% will be Government equity. The VOs will extend the input loan to the farmers at 10% handling charges. The revolving fund will be recovered by the concerned revenue department of the District Governments from VOs and returned to the Federal Government. Capacity building for crop productivity and income enhancement through training of VOs for administrative, financial and business management, farmers field schools, short-term training, field days / meetings, study tours, workshops, seminars, etc. It involves training to 2,676 staff and 25,040 farmers. Crop productivity Enhancement: Crops such as wheat, cotton, rice, maize, sugarcane, potato, oilseeds, pulses and vegetables will be planted on an area of 1,680,860 acres with the target to enhance their productivity by 35%. Small Animal Health Units / Animal Breeding Farms: About 1,012 each of animal breeding farms / health units will be established in the project area.

SPECIFIC SERVICES Cont d Market linkages development through formation of 2,900/340 Commodity Specific Groups / Clusters (CSGs/CSCs), linkage producers with market functionaries / value chains, linkage producers with financial institutions, facilitating technical support, facilitating capacity building and training, building physical sale and marketing points. Establishment of Farm Services Centers / Implement Pools in each village or a cluster of 3-5 villages to facilitate farmers in the availability of farm machinery: 80% cost will be borne by the project and 20% by the farmers. Rent of implements will go to revolving fund. Input Sale/Marketing Centers (66 in total) working as houses of sale / marketing of inputs and farmer s produce will also be established in one cluster of 30 villages. Establishment of small enterprises through income diversification interventions such as establishment of enterprise clusters, rural poultry farming, fish farming, offseason vegetable production, aquaculture, bee farming, provision of specialized farm services, goat and sheep farming, calf farming, dairy farming, feed mill, inputs sale centers, milk collection centers, establishment of fruit and forest plant nurseries, introduction and promotion of women operated homestead tube plant nurseries. For these, 80% cost will be borne by the project and 20% upfront by the beneficiary farmers. The Project cost will be recovered in 24 equal installments along with 10% handling charges.

Annual Financial Phasing Financial Requirements (Rs Million) COMPONENTS Total Percent share Year-1 Year-2 Year-3 Year-4 Year-5 FMCU, MINFAL* 245.340 128.450 144.100 75.469 79.769 673.128 8.40 PUNJAB 978.531 1,097.469 656.938 379.901 156.508 3,269.347 40.79 SINDH 430.094 483.456 378.026 213.110 102.326 1,607.012 20.05 NWFP 297.744 339.897 264.745 139.243 70.121 1,111.750 13.87 BALUCHISTAN 293.210 334.355 238.705 132.015 69.424 1,067.710 13.32 AJK 68.393 71.129 65.774 40.556 23.574 269.426 3.70 FATA 4.740 5.940 2.252 1.280 0.938 15.150 0.19 TOTAL 2,318.052 2,460.696 1,750.540 981.574 502.660 8,013.522 100.00 * Federal Monitoring and Coordination Unit, Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock

Annual Financial Phasing for Revolving Fund COMPONENT Financial Requirements (Rs Million) Year-1 Year-2 Year-3 Year-4 Year-5 Total FMCU, MINFAL 0.000 0.000 8.112 0.000 0.000 8.112 PUNJAB 759.000 871.560 390.800 117.960 0.000 2,139.320 SINDH 285.000 346.120 207.800 63.600 0.000 902.520 NWFP 198.000 245.040 142.400 42.400 0.000 627.840 BALUCHISTAN 186.000 241.440 127.200 33.960 0.000 588.600 AJK 33.000 43.368 30.224 10.368 0.000 116.960 FATA 2.500 3.100 0.600 0.448 0.000 6.648 TOTAL 1,463.5 1,750.628 907.136 268.736 0.000 4,390.000

Project Management Structure MINFAL National Steering Committee Revolving Fund Other Rural Partners National Project Director (NPD) (FMCU) Provincial Project Director (PPD) (PMCU) & PIMC* Provincial Steering Committee District Implementation Committee (DISC) District Project Implementation & Supervision Unit (DISU) District officer (Livestock) District officer (Agri. Extension) District officer (Fisheries) District officer (OFWM) District officer (Revenue) District officer (COOP) Village Organization Farmers sub groups * Provincial Implementation & Monitoring Committee

Provincial Project Monitoring & Coordination Structure Provincial Steering Committee under ACS (Dev.) Secretary Fisheries Secretary Agriculture Secretary Livestock ` DG/Director Fisheries DG Agriculture Extension Registrar Cooperatives DG/Director Livestock Provincial Project Director (PPD) Transfer of Technology & Training Expert Planning & Monitoring Expert Business Development & Marketing Expert District Implementation Unit Village Organization

District Project Implementation Structure District Implementation & Supervision Committee under DCO District Officer/Deputy Registrar (Cooperatives) Executive District Officer (EDO) (Agriculture) District Officer (Revenue) District Project Manager District Officer (Marketing) Assistant Registrar (Cooperatives) District Officer (Agri. Extension) District Officer (Livestock)/ ADLO District Officer/Deput y or Asstt (Fisheries) Social Mobilizer and Income Diversification Officer Business Development & Market Linkage Officer Credit & VO Support Officer Planning & Training Officer Agriculture Officers Village Organization

A Similar Project in Tanzania: ASSP Theory of Change

A Similar Project in Tanzania: ASDP-L Theory of Change

Tanzania: Organization chart for ASSP AND ASDP-L Financers IFAD / SMZ Lead ministry PROGRAMME STEERING COMMITTEE PROGRAMME COORDINATOR Programme Advisor PROGRAMME TECHNICAL TEAM Technical Support Officer Assistant Programme Coordinator Liaison Officer ASFT Financial Manager M&E Livestock Officer CADO Operation Manager Agricultural Officer Planning Officer Asstt. Liaison Officer Procurement Officer Accountant Assistant M&E Messenger Drivers Secretary Driver Secretary Cashier Accountant DMT DFT Implementers and Beneficiaries Farmer Groups Individual farmers

Section B: Impact evaluation of project

Evaluation framework and context Baseline study for the 1012 villages with village profiles, income of farmers, use of technique, Household survey for Pakistan Planning commission is monitoring

Evaluation questions How much did household income go up in participating households? Did agricultural productivity go up due to the project? Did the dependence to middlemen go down? Are there any unintended effects, e.g. environmental effects?

Outcome indicators Household income Yield per acre Months of food availability, number of meals % borrowed from middlemen, % of yield sold to the market

Theory and results-chain Lower prices for inputs incl. credits plus improved agricultural practices plus decent prices for output will lead to higher income of household will lead to better food security More access to credits will lead to higher productivity will lead to higher food security

Evaluation design To make with and without comparison Either add an immediate baseline on other villages (of how many?) Or try to implement a randomized approach on sequencing implementation Use propensity score matching to compare similar households with and without

Challenges and risks (to project implementation) Natural disaster, e.g. drought, flood, earthquake Terrorism

Methodology Quantitative methods to compare with and without Qualitative survey (interviews of a restricted number of (150?) Households) to find out why the effect occurred

Other remarks The objective of the evaluation might influence the evaluation question: If it is to scale up the project If it is to modify the project If it is to target the roll out The question could be: What worked under what conditions