SEKA Agro Processing PLC. Mango Fruit Production and Pulp Manufacturing Project At Kuja, Benchmaji Zone, SNNPR, Ethiopia Developed to the requirements of Potential Strategic Partners and Equity Investors
1. Executive Summary 1.1. Project Background and Rationale Horticulture is of major significance to Ethiopia. The industry bases itself on the country s diversified and rich agro-ecological resources. The country has a comparative advantage in exporting the various types of horticultural output such as fruit and fruit products. There is a need to convert that huge comparative advantage into a competitive advantage, by addressing key constraints and utilizing the existing and emerging opportunities. Among the critical constraints that hamper the sector s growth are poor farming practices, a predominance of smallholders, low production of improved varieties, inadequate collection and marketing networks, low investment in agro-processing, and a lack of technological skills and equipment. The opportunities include expanding domestic and regional market demand due to population growth, higher purchasing power and lifestyle changes; and the increased regional and global trade liberalization that is fueled by the faster flow of technology, information and investment. There have already been promising developments and initiatives to address some of these constraints, and use more of the opportunities within the horticulture value chain. The Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) of Ethiopia makes horticulture a priority. The GTP II aims to industrialize the agriculturedominated Ethiopian economy to continue and accelerate the double-digit GDP growth registered in GTP I years. The plan identifies the strategic importance of horticulture in terms of promoting links between agriculture and industry, food security, poverty reduction, employment for the rural poor, agroprocessing, technology transfer, positive environmental impacts and foreign-exchange earnings. It was anticipated that the foreign exchange earnings from the vegetable, fruit and herb exports to reach $948 million in 2014/15 from $37.1 million in 2009/10. Earnings from flower exports are forecasted to rise to $1 billion million in 2020 versus $270 million in 2015. The project meets Ethiopia s green economy agenda stipulated in its Climate Resilient Green Economy strategy. The project neither depletes nor pollutes natural resources as it hardly disposes waste. The main raw material is perennial mango trees planted as part of the project, which has the secondary positive effect of absorbing considerable carbon dioxide emissions. The project also adds value by the processing of mango pulp, which contributes to Ethiopia s povertyreduction efforts by creating job opportunities and a market for smallholder farmers via an out-grower scheme. They will also benefit from technical support to promote commercialization of agricultural produce, which both will enhance food security and export earnings. The project s alignment with Ethiopian government policies means it will enjoy various incentives and support that will facilitate a conducive legal, policy and operational environment that also benefits and enhances the agendas of its global development partners including special arrangement to mobilize finances from within and outside Ethiopia. Despite these array of benefits market players have been hesitant to start the business. Generally Fruit tree plantation like Mango requires a long gestations period takes on the average six years to start the first harvest and requires long term vision and commitment to for an investor to stat Mango pulp
production from scratch. Most market actors depends only on the out grower scheme which is not sufficient and reliable source of supply for optimum scale of operation. As a result the huge production and growing market opportunity remained untouched. It is against this background the project s chief promoter, Mr. Seifu Woldemichael, and his partners conceived the plan. Mr. Seifu Woldemichael, the major shareholder and Managing Director of SEKA Agro Processing, is a prominent businessman involved in agriculture. He started his career by joining the now-defunct Horticulture Development Corporation, under the then-ministry of State Farm Development. He acquired over 27 years of hands-on experience in horticulture while working in different enterprises since graduating from the former Alemaye University in 1985, where he studied agriculture. Mr. Seifu also obtained his Master of Business Administration degree from Corallines University, USA complementing his Agriculture background and long experience in managing horticultural businesses. Since 2006, the promoters have been investing large resources in establishing the mango plantation and currently out of the 2714 Ha land of the farm over 1379 Ha land planted with over 407,000 trees of Mango. In addition about 172 Ha land covered with over 410,000 coffee tree. The first batches of mango trees has started yielding fruits and the first harvest made from 216 HA land in 2014 and in the current year about 15,000 Tons of Mango raw fruit is expected to be harvested from about 734 Ha. The company had been continued to invest in the maintenance of the existing young trees and transplanting of the mango seedlings. This will be further augmented by setting up a mango pulp processing plant, with the aim of trading and exporting to the targeted market segments globally. This proposal is prepared with the view of mobilizing the requisite resources to grow the plantation to a size that creates the required economies of scale, and to build a state-of-the-art processing plant. 1.2. The Market The global fruit and vegetable sector is growing faster than any other agricultural segment. It provides livelihoods to about 1.3 billion people and contributes about 40 percent to global agricultural output. For many poor farmers in developing countries, fruit and vegetable production is a primary source of income. Mango is among the fruits such as banana, guava, peach and pear that produce purees while apple, grape, and orange and grapefruit are common juices. Mango pulp is used to produce juices, nectars, jams and multi-fruit beverages, and is also used as a flavoring and ingredient for processed foods such as ice cream, yoghurt and bakery food. Mango is the fastest-growing tropical juice, and more and more consumers are buying fresh mango fruits. Mango s natural sweetness provides a good counter-balance to the acidity of common juices. Producers are increasingly blending small quantities of mango juice with orange juice, one of the most widely-consumed juices in the world, to take advantage of this effect and consumers preference for a sweeter taste. The global production of mango depicting a growth from 37.4 million tons in 2010 to 45.2 million tons in 2014 with an annual average growth rate of 4.2%. The growth in production volume is more than proportionate relative to acreage depicting the productivity increase by nearly 74%. The production of mango is highly concentrated in few countries as 81% of the production comes from 10 countries. India alone accounts for over 40% of the production followed by china, Thailand and Indonesia accounting
105, 7% and 5% respectively. Ethiopia stands among the 38 th mango producing countries producing 94 Thousands of tons accounting for less than 0.2% of the global production. The global export of mango reached 2.9 Million tons in 2013 from 2.1 Million ton in 2009 depicting an average annual growth rate of 8%. The top ten countries accounts for 83% of the export volume showing the high concentration in trade as it was in production. Mexico is leading exporter of Mango followed by, India Netherlands and Brazil.The export value mango reached US$ 1.7 Billion (2013) from US$ 1 Billion portraying annual average growth of 14%. Mexico accounts for 16% of the global export value while India, Netherlands and Brazil accounts for 15%, 13% and 10% respectively. The global import of mango grew with an average annual growth of 7.3% from 891 Thousands tons in 2009 to 1,213 Thousand of tons in 2013. The top ten countries accounts for 73% of the import quantity of Mango again suggesting a high concentration in the import as it did in export and production. United States is the leading importer followed by Netherlands, Germany, United Kingdom and France. Ethiopia ranked 120 th importing about 1 thousand tons. The global value of import reached about US$1,683 Million in 2013 compared to US$1,045 million in 2009. United states accounts for 24% of the value of global import followed by Netherlands accounts 15%. Germany, UK and France account for 8%, 7% and 5% of the value of import respectively. United Arab Emirates accounts for 4% of the global import value. Looking further the global trade for fruit juice market (HS 2009) which can serve as a proxy for Mango fruit juice trade, 12.35 Million tons of fruit juice has been imported globally of which United states accounts for 2.1 Million tons or 13% of the global trade followed by Germany and Netherlands both accounting 10% and France, Belgium and UK accounting for 8% and 7% respectively. Again the import trade is dominated by few countries and top ten alone accounts for 69% of the whole volume imported. The average value of import during the last five years (201l-2015) is estimated at US$15.6 Billion per annum with United State taking the share of 13%. The trend shows some decline due to the decline in import of the majoring importing countries. The global export volume of juice (HS 2009) is averaged at 14 Million Tones during 2011 to 2015. The leading exporter is Brazil followed by Netherlands, USA, Belgium and China.The global value of export is US$ 16.2 Billion of which top ten countries accounts for 2/3rd of the value depicting the high concentration of export trade as it did for production and import. Brazil as a leading exporter country accounts for 15% of the global trade value followed by Netherlands USA, Belgium china and Germany accounts for 9%, 7%, 7%, 6%, 6% respectively. USA is not just a leading importer but also among the top 3 exporter of juice products. The plausible explanation for such state of affairs is that the juice products imported and exported could different and also there could be re-exported products. The fast-growing population and increased purchasing power of the Middle East is opening up tremendous opportunities for eastern African mango producers and exporters. With a population of more than 600 million people - including nearly 300 million Arabs, 160 million Pakistanis, 75 million Turks, 70 million Iranians and 7 million Israelis - the Middle East represents a significant market for mango commodities. According to projections by the United Nation s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the population of the Middle East will increase to 870 million by 2025. Because of its large population and the fact it is a destination for Islamic pilgrimage, Saudi Arabia is the largest market for mango in the region. Africa s import volume of fresh and dried mango increased over the last decades by 10% with the value obtained during the period 2009 to 2015 estimated at $3 million, showing the growing market demand. Botswana imported 33% of the continent s total of fresh and dried mango followed by Morocco (24%),
South Africa (15%) and Niger (10%).Equally important is the domestic Ethiopian market which is not only large but continuously growing alongside the last decade s rapid economic growth. These trends suggest a sizable and geographically diverse market for the envisaged products, both at home and abroad with a focus on the EU, Middle East and Africa. Ethiopia is expected to account for up to 30 percent of the total the project s total market. 1.3. Technical The project s ultimate aim is processing and marketing of mango pulp, with fruits collected from own plantation, smallholder and commercial farmers. Since the project commenced in 2008, the plantation of trees and production of fresh fruits has been accomplished. Accordingly, preliminary assessment and survey of general locations, specific site and agro-climatic conditions, and ecology of the surrounding environment have been made and based on the assessment, an appropriate location was selected. The land was acquired by paying the requisite lease down payment and the development of land, electricity supply and roads has already been made. The first phase of the project started with seedling propagation and nursery following the development and adaptation of the selected improved seed variety. Transplantation of the seedlings and maintenance of the young trees is being carried out on a continuous basis. The second phase will include the setting up of the processing plant alongside the transplanting of mango seedlings and maintenance of young mango trees and procurement of additional farm machinery and tools. Currently out of the 2714 Ha land of the farm over 1379 Ha land planted with over 407,000 trees of Mango. In addition about 172 Ha land covered with over 410,000 coffee tree. The first batches of mango trees has started yielding fruits and the first harvest made from 216 HA land in 2014 and in the current year about 15,000 Tons of Mango raw fruit is expected to be harvested from about 734 Ha. The company had been continued to invest in the maintenance of the existing young trees and transplanting of the mango seedlings. This will be further augmented by setting up a mango pulp processing plant, with the aim of trading and exporting to the targeted market segments globally. Mango pulp processing involves production of puree from fresh fully-matured mango fruits. The process has four distinct stages. The first stage involves selecting and sorting fully ripened fruits and washing off any external contaminants. Bruised and blemished fruits are removed and then the fruits cores are removed. The second stage is heat treatment of the mash containing peels, pulps and fibrous material. This process refines and increases the yield of the fruits and produces raw pulp with a concentration of about 14 brix. The third stage is mainly meant to the raw pulp to about 28 brix in a single-effect evaporator with forced circulation. The final stage is sterilization and aseptic filling the mango pulp into 200-230 liter bags in a drum as per client preferences. 1.4. Cost and Financing Plan The overall project cost is estimated at $67 million, consisting of three categories namely fixed investment of $62 million (92%), pre-operational expenditure of $ 2.6 million (4%), and working capital of $2.35 million (3.5%). The initial fixed investment includes the land acquisitions and development, drip irrigation and infrastructure, Mango and coffee tree development, main and auxiliary building constructions and civil works, plant materials, plant, machinery and heavy duty equipment, vehicles, office furniture and equipment and pre-production expenditure. The existing loan bears 7.5% annual interest rate to be computed on year-end balances. The repayment period is assumed to be five years with equal annual installments. The annual operating cost and the initial working capital requirement of the project are determined on the basis of the assumptions for the coverage of the operational days for each expense in the operational cost and also considering the optimum stock of raw material, goods in process and finished items. The numbers of days covered are determined by considering the prevailing practice of material procurement
from local and foreign sources and the raw, goods-in-process and finished stock requirements. In the case of imported materials, additional time for port clearing and transportation has been considered. Based on the number of days, annual turnover is estimated for each item on the basis of which an average turnover for the entire operational cost and stockholding turnover is estimated. Accordingly, the turnover, operating expense and working capital are estimated for the start year at 3.22 per year. $7.6 Million and $2.35 million respectively. The detailed of working capital estimate is presented in Error! Reference source not found.. The financing mix of the project consists of owners equity, loan and equity finance. Owners contribution accounts to 68% of the total investment while loan is 9% and the equity finance is expected to cover the remaining 15%. The loan bears 7.5% annual interest rate to be computed on year-end balances. The repayment period of the loan is assumed to be 5 years. 1.5. Financial Analysis Cash Flow: The net cash flow which can be generated by the project over its life amounts to $ 735 million out of which $5.8 Million (1%) is to pay back the initial investment loan. The remaining $729.7 million is available to finance the plantation and the factory. Error! Reference source not found. portrays the projected Cash Flow schedule. SALES REVENUE Based on the proposed production program and prevailing market prices, the average annual sales revenue of the factory over 15 years of operation is $58.8 million. Details are shown in the Error! Reference source not found.. PROFITABILITY: The project will show profit beginning its second year of operation. The ratio of the average net profit to total sales and the average net profit to equity are computed to be 23.4% and 22.3%, respectively. Although there are no cut-off rates for these ratios, they are taken to be adequate. At the end of its fifteen years, the project will generate a cumulative return of $206 million net of tax of which $136 million will be paid as a dividend to the shareholders and equity financer, $36 million is retained as capital and the remaining balance of $9 million as a legal reserve.(see Error! Reference source not found. for details) BALANCE SHEET: A projected balance sheet calculated for the next fifteen years indicates that the net worth of the factory will reach more than $131.7 Million. Details are shown in Error! Reference source not found.. IRR AND NPV: The cash flow of the project discounted at 10% yielded a net present value (NPV) of $147 million and a corresponding internal rate of return (IRR) of 22.8% before tax and after NPV of $112 Million and IRR of 18.4%, indicating that it is financially viable. PAYBACK PERIOD: The payback period in which the project will be able to recover the total initial investment through its generated profits is 6.7 years. BREAK-EVEN ANALYSIS: The project will have an average breakeven point at the start year is 52.9% production and sales and decline to 18.4% in sixth year of operation. On the average the breakeven point for production is 34,642 Tons of with a sales value of $43 million. IMPORTANT RATIOS: The end-of-year financial position of the envisaged project is shown in the annex. As indicated in the balance sheet, the factory will have strong positions of liquidity and working capital. The most important ratios are assessed to show liquidity position, self-efficiency to meet short
and long-term loan obligations and credit worthiness. Error! Reference source not found. presents important ratios worth nothing. Leverage Ratio: At the initial stage of the project, its debt-equity ratio and debt-total assets ratio are computed to be 1.73 and.63 respectively. The first ratio tells that for every $1 the owners contributed, the creditors have furnished $1.73. The second ratio tells that for every $1 of assets, creditors have furnished 0.63 birr or 63% of the total assets. Profitability Ratios: The profit margin ratio and return on investment ratio are computed so as to measure the operational performance of the project. To that end, the two ratios are computed to be 23% and 30% of the sales revenue and of the total assets. The results are hence adequate enough although there is no cut-off rate to be used for comparison SENSITIVITY TESTS: A series of tests are conducted to see the likely sensitivity of the project to changes of important variables such as sales revenue, production costs and investment costs. The project is moderately sensitive to a decrease in sales revenue, to an increase in production costs and in investment cost. 1.6. Socio-Economic Benefits The project creates about 255 permanent employees and several hundred seasonal workers. In addition the project will: Contribute to the overall poverty alleviation efforts of Ethiopia Helps address the food security problem and generate income to the involved small farmers Enhance the resource bases of the environment Enhance the sink capacity of the environment for carbon emissions Promote the resilient green economy and growth agenda of Ethiopia Contribute to the growth of the country s foreign exchange earnings Encourage the development of skilled labor in the sector Help to promote the country s horticulture products in the international market Stimulate backward linkages that will encourage producers to increase output and give them technology feedbacks to improve the quality of their products Help to encourage the expansion of the horticulture sub-sector Generate government revenue