One way to value diversity the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

One way to value diversity the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Wolfgang Cramer Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK) & Institut für Geoökologie, Universität Potsdam

One way to value diversity the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Wolfgang Cramer Erdsystemanalyse, Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Institut für Geoökologie, Universität Potsdam

One way to value diversity the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Assessment or research? Conditions/trends vs. scenarios Global vs. regional From a conceptual framework to factual findings Key findings of the MA

Assessment or research? Assessment: Concern for possible damage (early observations of damage or recognised risks for future) Assembling knowledge about system behaviour Identification of (multiple!) forcings (Intelligent) extrapolation of trends models (statistical, mechanistic...) scenarios (multiple!) for expected trends in forcings Interpretation: valuation and assessment Research: supplies all of the above with knowledge/ understanding

Two major recent assessments: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) / Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) IPCC: supports UN Framework Convention on Climate Change main decisions taken by government representatives line-by-line approval of executive summary MA: supports UN Conventions on Biodiversity, Wetlands, Desertification etc. main decisions taken by board no government approval procedure IPCC & MA: Only scientific results are considered

Largest assessment of the status of Earth s ecosystems Experts and Review Process Prepared by 1360 experts from 95 countries 80-person independent board of review editors Review comments from 850 experts and governments Includes information from 33 sub-global assessments Governance Called for by UN Secretary General in 2000 Authorized by governments through 4 conventions (Biodiversity, Climate, Desertification, Wetlands).

Ecosystems and human well-being A Framework for Assessment Current State and Trends (Volume 1) Scenarios (Volume 2) Policy Responses (Volume 3) Multiscale Assessments (Volume 4) Our Human Planet: Summary for Decisionmakers

Conditions and Trends I: General Concepts and Analytical Approaches II: An Assessment of Ecosystem Services III: An Assessment of Systems from which Ecosystem Services Are Derived IV: Synthesis

Scenarios I: State of Knowledge Concerning Ecosystem Forecasts and Scenarios II: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios III: Implications of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios

Consequences of Ecosystem Change for Human Well-being

Ecosystems and human well-being A Framework for Assessment Conditions and Trends (Volume 1) Scenarios (Volume 2) Policy Responses (Volume 3) Multiscale Assessments (Volume 4) Our Human Planet: Summary for Decisionmakers

Conditions and Trends I: General Concepts and Analytical Approaches II: An Assessment of Ecosystem Services III: An Assessment of Systems from which Ecosystem Services Are Derived IV: Synthesis

Conditions and Trends I I: General Concepts and Analytical Approaches 1. MA Conceptual Framework 2. Analytical Approaches for Assessing Ecosystem Condition and Human Well-being 3. Drivers of Ecosystem Change 4. Biodiversity 5. Ecosystem Conditions and Human Well-being 6. Vulnerable Peoples and Places

Conditions and Trends II II: An Assessment of Ecosystem Services 7. Fresh Water 8. Food 9. Timber, Fuel, and Fiber 10. New Products and Industries from Biodiversity 11. Biodiversity Regulation of Ecosystem Services 12. Nutrient Cycling 13. Climate and Air Quality 14. Human Health: Ecosystem Regulation of Infectious Diseases 15. Waste Processing and Detoxification 16. Regulation of Natural Hazards: Floods and Fires 17. Cultural and Amenity Services

Conditions and Trends III III: An Assessment of Systems from which Ecosystem Services Are Derived 18. Marine Fisheries Systems 19. Coastal Systems 20. Inland Water Systems 21. Forest and Woodland Systems 22. Dryland Systems 23. Island Systems 24. Mountain Systems 25. Polar Systems 26. Cultivated Systems 27. Urban Systems

Conditions and Trends IV IV: Synthesis 28. Synthesis: Condition and Trends in Systems and Services, Trade-offs for Human Well-being, and Implications for the Future

Analytical Approaches for Assessing Ecosystem Condition and Human Well-being Tools Data sources and methods computer modelling, remote sensing, environmental economics... are unevenly distributed for different ecosystem services and regions... Ecosystem responses on different scales including nonlinear responses...

Interacting scales in biosphere dynamics Biosphere Ecosystems Plants carbon allocation and growth global biogeochemistry disturbance and succession storms, fire evolution geographical distribution of vegetation types plant seasonality Leaves Cells plant metabolism water- and nutrient budget competition for resources and ecological strategies Molecules photosynthesis From Wolfgang Lucht, PIK Seconds Minutes Hours Years Decades Centuries

Analytical Approaches for Assessing Ecosystem Condition and Human Well-being Tools computer modelling, remote sensing, environmental economics... Data sources and methods are unevenly distributed for different ecosystem services and regions... Ecosystem responses on different scales including nonlinear responses... Ecosystem services are only one factor of human well-being analysis of linkage is therefore challenging...

Analytical Approaches for Assessing Ecosystem Condition and Human Well-being The analytical approach for this report aims to quantify, to the degree possible, the most important trade-offs within different ecosystems and among ecosystem services as input to weigh societal objectives based on comprehensive analysis of the full suite of ecosystem services.

Key questions What are the current spatial extent and condition of ecosystems? What are the quality, quantity, and spatial distributions of services provided by the systems? Who lives in the ecosystem and what ecosystem services do they use? What are the trends in ecosystem condition and their services in the recent (decades) and more distant past (centuries)? How does ecosystem condition, and in turn ecosystem services, respond to the drivers of change for each system?

Information sources

Deforestation Xingu River, Amazonia (MODIS Image, 19.10.2000)

Lorraine, France, August 2003

Coral Reef Bleaching

The Lund-Potsdam-Jena DGVM (LPJ) AET competition AET functional differentiation crown area leaves C i C i climate CO 2 soil biochemistry height stem diameter LAI sapwood heartwood metabolism 0-50 cm 50-150 cm fine roots APAR = PAR [1 exp( k LAI )] yearly NPP mean structure of an individual functional relationships soil water supply allometry C budget H 2 O budget biogeography allometric conditions old structure new structure

Implementation of agriculture in LPJ Adaptation of LPJ to simulate the carbon and water fluxes for crops: each CFT on a distinct stand with access to a separate soil water pool Sowing date estimation: for 4 temperate CFTs = f(t), for 4 tropical CFTs = f(p) Adaptation of heat sum and vernalization requirement Daily coupled growth and development simulation: Phenology, C allocation to leaves, roots, storage organs, estimation of the harvesting period LAI, ~ 6 Winter wheat For grasses, several cuts (f(lai)), or regular grazing Oct Jul Total biomass, ~ 20 tdm/ha Grain harvested, ~ 6 tdm/ha Harvested biomass removed, residues sent to the litter pool or removed (fodder, biofuel,...) No water stress for irrigated crops, computation of the water requirement and of the effective irrigation Possibility of multiple cropping (e.g. rice) Grass during the intercrop season otherwise

Changing ecosystems at a global mean temperature increase of 3 o C Change: needle-leafed forests becomes broad-leafed forest Extinction Degradation Ecosystems that change are coloured. Improvement Improvement: More trees and higher productivity Change: Different species composition and landscapes Degradation: Fewer trees and lower productivity Extinction: Large habitat decline and irreversible change

The MA Global Scenario Analysis: Quantitative: The Global Modeling Exercise

Indicators, human well-being Indicators for ecosystem condition Economic valuation Other valuation methods (health benefits, poverty & equity, etc.) Intrinsic value assessment

Assessing trade-offs

Scenarios I: State of Knowledge Concerning Ecosystem Forecasts and Scenarios II: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios III: Implications of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios

Scenarios I I: State of Knowledge Concerning Ecosystem Forecasts and Scenarios 1. MA Conceptual Framework 2. Global Scenarios in Historical Perspective 3. Ecology in Global Scenarios 4. State of the Art in Simulating Future Changes in Ecosystem Services

Scenarios II II: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios 5. Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: Rationale and Overview 6. Methodology for Developing the MA Scenarios 7. Drivers of Change in Ecosystem Condition and Services 8. Four Scenarios

Scenarios III III: Implications of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios 9. Changes in Ecosystem Services and Their Drivers across the Scenarios 10. Biodiversity across Scenarios 11. Human Well-being across Scenarios 12. Interactions among Ecosystem Services 13. Lessons Learned for Scenario Analysis 14. Policy Synthesis for Key Stakeholders

Changes in Ecosystem Services and Their Drivers across the Scenarios Indirect drivers of ecosystem services (population, economic development, technological change, social/cultural/political drivers, energy use and production)

Changes in Ecosystem Services and Their Drivers across the Scenarios Direct drivers of ecosystem services (greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution emissions, risks of acidification and excess N loading from air pollution, climate change, sea level rise, change in land use or land cover, use of N fertilizer and N loads to rivers and coastal marine systems, disruption of landscape by mining and fossil fuel extraction)

Changes in Ecosystem Services and Their Drivers across the Scenarios Provisioning ecosystem services (food, fish for food consumption, uncertainty of agricultural estimates and ecological feedbacks to agriculture, fuel, freshwater resources, others) Regulating ecosystem services (climate regulation / C storage, risk of soil degradation, water purification and waste treatment, coastal protection, others)

Land biosphere carbon balance Source Sinks Net Ecosystem Productivity (g C m -2 y -2 )

Changes in Ecosystem Services and Their Drivers across the Scenarios Supporting ecosystem services Cultural ecosystem services

Main chapter 9 messages The demand for provisioning services, such as food, fiber, and water, strongly increases in all four scenarios Trade-offs between ecosystem services continue and perhaps intensify Overall, the largest decrease in the quality of ecosystems and the provision of ecosystem services occurs under the Order from Strength scenario The scenarios indicate certain hot spot regions of particularly rapid changes in ecosystem services, including sub-saharan Africa, the Middle East and Northern Africa, and South Asia.

Main chapter 9 messages In all scenarios, rising income in the Middle East and Northern African countries leads to greater meat demand, which could lead to a still higher level of dependence on food imports Vast changes are expected in world freshwater resources and hence in the ecosystem services provided by freshwater systems

Non-sustainable irrigation

Increasing N transport through rivers

Main chapter 9 messages Land use change is a major driver of changes in the provision of ecosystem services up to 2050 After 2050, climate change and its impacts (such as sea level rise) have an increasing effect on the provision of ecosystem services

Main chapter 9 messages Food security remains out of reach for many people, and child malnutrition cannot be eradicated by 2050, even though the supply of food increases under all four scenarios and diets in poorer countries become more diversified Demand for fish as food will expand, and the result will be an increasing risk of the major long-lasting decline of regional marine fisheries The future contribution of terrestrial ecosystems to the regulation of climate is uncertain

Increases in ecosystem services have brought substantial gains in human well being Since 1960, population doubled, economic activity increased 6-fold, food production increased 2 ½ times, food price has declined, water use doubled, wood harvest for pulp tripled, hydropower doubled. but gains were achieved at growing costs that could diminish the benefits that future generations obtain from ecosystems

Cost of increased ecosystem services: (i) Unprecedented change in ecosystems Since 1945, more land was converted to cropland than in 18 th and 19 th centuries combined Over last several decades, 20% of the world s coral reefs lost, 20% degraded, 35% of mangrove area lost Since 1960, amount of water in reservoirs quadrupled

Cost of increased ecosystem services: (ii) Significant and largely irreversible changes to species diversity The distribution of species more homogenous Humans increase species extinction rate by as much as 1,000 times over background rates 10 30% of mammal, bird, and amphibian species currently threatened with extinction

Cost of increased ecosystem services: (iii) Degradation and unsustainable use of ecosystem services 60% (15 out of 24) of ecosystem services are being degraded or used unsustainably Degradation of ecosystem services often causes significant harm to human well-being

Cost of increased ecosystem services: (iv) Degradation of ecosystem services harms people ½ urban population in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean suffers from one or more diseases associated with inadequate water and sanitation Decline of freshwater fisheries reduce inexpensive source of protein in developing countries. Desertification destroys livelihoods of millions of people, including a large portion of the poor in drylands

Gains in ecosystem services: Food production By 2050: Food production increases by 70 85% Child malnutrition decreases under 3 of 4 scenarios Child undernourishment in 2050 under MA Scenarios

Intensified tradeoffs between ecosystem services: Agriculture land expands over grasslands and forests By 2050: Expansion of agricultural land main cause of 10 20% loss of natural grassland and forests Loss of services associated with grassland and forests (wood products, medicine, climate regulation)

Gains in ecosystem services: Freshwater services By 2050: Global water availability increases by 5 7% Water withdrawals increase 30% - 85% Water Withdrawals in 2050 under MA Scenarios

Increased likelihood of nonlinear changes Changes being made in ecosystems are increasing the likelihood of nonlinear changes in ecosystems (accelerating, abrupt, and potentially irreversible changes) important consequences for human wellbeing.

Example of nonlinear change Fisheries collapse 1992: Collapse of Atlantic cod fishery off coast of Newfoundland Invasive alien species: Introduction of zebra mussels into North American aquatic ecosystems caused $100 million damage to power industry, other users Rapid regional climate change: Desertification causes decline in regional precipitation (Africa, Latin America) further changes in forest cover Newfoundland Cod Fishery

Factors causing increase in likelihood of nonlinear changes Loss of species and genetic diversity decreases resilience of ecosystems Growing pressures from drivers: overharvesting, climate change, invasive species, and nutrient loading push ecosystems toward thresholds that they might otherwise not encounter

MA Global Scenario Analysis: Main findings Ecosystem services will increase but their reliability is unclear Tradeoffs between services will intensify Likelihood of abrupt changes in world ecosystems is increasing

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