Impact of Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative and Renewable Portfolio Standards on Power System Planning Panel on Impacts of GHG Programs and Markets on the Power Industry PESGM2006 Montreal June 21, 2006 Jim Platts, ISO New England
Presentation Objectives Describe Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) and status RGGI impact on ISO New England states Survey ISO New England RGGI Study Describe New England (NE) States Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) Outlook for RPS projects Implications for planning 2
What is RGGI? RGGI is a CO 2 cap and trade program for power plants in seven Northeastern states including CT, ME, NH, and VT Would be similar to existing SO 2 and NO X cap and trade programs RGGI cap is 121.3 million tons, New England s share is 26.5 million tons Applies to fossil power plants 25 MW or larger Starts January 1, 2009 Model Rule to guide states implementation 3
Seven RGGI States 4
RGGI Features States to allocate 25% (minimum) of their cap allowances for customer benefits or strategic energy purposes Compliance period is three years Plants can use of offsets to comply for up to 3.3%, or more, of their emissions, depending on CO 2 allowance prices Offsets can be created from greenhouse gas reduction projects outside the electricity sector Offsets can be from projects within the RGGI states or elsewhere in the U.S but need state regulatory approval Regional organization to administer RGGI program More info at RGGI Web site: www.rggi.org 5
RGGI Timetable May 22 Public comments due on Model Rule 2006 to 2008 States develop legislation or regulatory rulemaking to implement Model Rule January 1, 2009 RGGI goes into effect March 1, 2012 First compliance true-up deadline for generators 2012 Initial RGGI program results to be evaluated 2015 Start reducing cap by 2.5% per year through 2018 6
RGGI still has many uncertainties Final Model Rule How each state will implement RGGI Allowance allocation approach: free vs. auction? Allowance set aside for new generators? Additional state compliance penalties? Will enough state approved offsets be available (additional 3.3%)? Treatment of CO 2 leakage MA and RI could rejoin RGGI making the New England cap 55.8 million tons. A federal CO 2 cap and trade program could be implemented before or after the RGGI program starts. This would probably incorporate the RGGI program. 7
One Recent CO 2 Allowance Forecast Synapse CO 2 Price Forecast Source: Forecasting and Using Carbon Prices in a World of Uncertainty, Bruce Biewald, January 2006
ISO New England RGGI Evaluations ISO New England consultant surveyed generators and stakeholders on likely compliance strategies and potential operating risks ISO New England study determined potential emissions from simulations by varying CO 2 allowance prices New resource additions Imports and exports Natural gas prices New England states participation (from four to six) 9
RGGI Survey Results RGGI generators general compliance strategy: Use allocated and purchased allowances plus offsets Use risk management tools Potential reliability impacts Dual fuel units may shift to more gas Some RGGI generators could curtail operation if Allowance prices get too high or CO 2 allowance costs can t be fully recovered in existing bilateral contracts Uncertainties for new capacity development RGGI, ISO s Forward Capacity Market, natural gas, and LNG supply 10
Typical Generator Emission Cost Adders: SO 2, NO x and CO 2 CO 2 allowance cost does not appear to change the relative dispatch order of typical fossil plants New Typical Plant Combined Cycle Gas Peaking Steam Oil Base Load Steam Coal Fuel Cost ($/MMBtu) Heat Rate (Btu/kWh) Assumptions: CO2 Content (Lb/Btu) CO2 Allow ance Price ($/ton) Fuel Prices ($/MBtu): Gas & Oil 7; Coal 2.25 Costs $/MWh Fuel SO 2 NO x CO 2 Total w /o CO 2 Total w / CO 2 7.00 7,000 120 10 49.0 0.0 0.1 4.2 49.1 53.3 7.00 10,500 160 10 73.5 11.5 4.4 8.4 89.4 97.8 2.25 8,889 210 10 20.0 4.7 4.4 9.3 29.1 38.4 Allowance prices ($/ton): SO 2 1,085; NO x 2,800; CO 2 10 11
ISO New England RGGI Study Results Allowance Prices New England RGGI Units CO 2 Emissions vs. CO 2 Allowance Price Assumes No Resource Additions and Allows Leakage CO 2 Emissions From NE RGGI Units (Million tons) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 NE RGGI Cap = 26.5 millions tons CO 2 Price 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 $0 $5 $10 $20 Year $0 $5 $10 $20
ISO New England RGGI Study Results New Resource Additions New England RGGI Units CO 2 Emissions with Alternative Resource Additions* and Allows Leakage CO 2 Allowance Price: $5/ton CO 2 Emissions From NE RGGI Units (Million tons) 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 IGCC0_5 NGCC_5 Base_5 QUEUE_5 NE RGGI Cap = 26.5 million tons IGCC90_5 NUC_5 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year Base_5 NUC_5 IGCC90_5 IGCC0_5 NGCC_5 QUEUE_5 *500 MW added in 2012 and another 500 MW in 2015
ISO New England RGGI Study Results New Resource Additions New England RGGI Units CO 2 Emissions with Alternative Resource Additions* and Allows Leakage CO 2 Allowance Price: $5/ton CO 2 Emissions From NE RGGI Units (Million tons) 32.0 31.0 30.0 29.0 28.0 27.0 26.0 25.0 24.0 23.0 IGCC0_5 NGCC_5 Base_5 NE RGGI Cap = 26.5 million tons QUEUE_5 IGCC90_5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 NUC_5 Year Base_5 NUC_5 IGCC90_5 IGCC0_5 NGCC_5 QUEUE_5 *500 MW added in 2012 and another 500 MW in 2015
ISO New England RGGI Study Results Leakage Leakage: CO 2 emissions from small units in RGGI States and units in non- RGGI States RGGI handling of leakage (tracking, financial, etc.) to be determined by Fall 2006 For an allowance cost of $10/ton, the RGGI cap causes total CO 2 leakage in 2015 from non-rggi units in New England of over 3 million tons Total RGGI Emission Leakage (Million tons) 45 40 35 30 25 20 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year Base Base_10
ISO New England RGGI Study Results New England s Sources of Energy Assumed $0 cost for CO 2 produced by imports and non-rggi units HQ and NB modeled as price sensitive sources RGGI cap increases the imports and decreases the percentage of fossil fuel usage coal, oil, and gas Energy for All New England Generators 2015 Production (a) Base Case _ No Cap (b) Base _ With Cap @ $10/ton Renewable 11.2% Net Interchange 5.4% Coal 12.9% Oil 5.9% Renewable 11.2% Net Interchange 6.2% Coal 12.6% 61.3% 60.3% Oil 5.6% Nuclear 22.2% Gas 42.5% Nuclear 22.2% Gas 42.1%
ISO New England RGGI Study Summary Four States The New England RGGI units would be able to meet the New England RGGI cap through 2015 assuming CO 2 allowance price at $5/ton or higher New resources must have zero or low CO 2 emissions to maintain NE RGGI emissions below the cap, especially after 2015 The RGGI cap could result in greater purchases from external sources resulting in an increase of the CO 2 emissions leakage from non-rggi units Six States If MA and RI join RGGI, compliance could be an issue as early as 2010 Offsets will likely be needed 17
Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) 18
2005 Capacity & Energy in New England Summer Capacity: 30,940 MW Pumped Storage 5.4% Other Renewables 2.9% Misc. 5.5% Energy: 138,195 GWh Net Interchange 4.6% Coal 9.2% Hydro 5.4% Gas 38.6% Pumped Storage 1.0% Coal/Oil 3.2% Hydro 4.9% Gas 27.9% Coal 11.8% Nuclear 14.2% Oil/Gas 12.0% Oil 24.3% Nuclear 25.0% Oil 4.1% Note: Units in the Misc. category include Other Renewables (biomass, landfill gas, refuse and wind) and Settlement Only Generators. Energy includes pumping energy.
New England Renewables on the Grid 2005 Type Hydro Refuse Wood Landfill and Bio Gas Wind Total % of New England Energy Capacity MW 1,663 470 389 58 1 2,581 8.4 Energy GWH 6,739 3,766 2,665 388 12 13,570 10 20
State RPS Technologies State Maine Massachusetts Connecticut Rhode Island Common Technologies Solar thermal, photovoltaic, ocean thermal, wave, tidal (except RI), wind biomass, fuel cells, hydro (except in MA), landfill gas (except RI) Special Technologies or Restrictions Allows Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) with recycling, cogeneration, and geothermal Biomass with advanced technology and low emissions, fuel cells only with renewable fuels Hydro < 5 MW, sustainable biomass, MSW Fuel cells only with renewable fuels, geothermal 21
State RPS Requirements % of Load Serving Entity s Energy RPS Required Energy (% of Total) State 2006 2010 2015 CT (Class I only) 2.0 7.0 7.0 MA 2.5 5.0 10.0 RI * 4.5 9.5 VT ** ** *Program does not start until 2007 **VT requires growth in energy 2004-12 be met by renewables 22
NE RPS Energy Requirements GWh ISO New England Projection based on 2006 Forecast Projected RPS Requirement GWh 2005 2006 2010 2015 CT (Class I only) 493 660 2,428 2,617 MA 1042 1,322 2,693 5,770 RI 405 925 VT 225 535 Total 1,535 1,982 5,752 9,847 Net New RPS Requirement (Yr 2005) 447 4,217 8,312 Total New England Projected Energy GWh 135,000 140,330 151,085 Total RPS as % 1.1 4.0 6.5
Renewable Energy Projects in the ISO New England Queue Type (#) of Projects Size MW Assumed Capacity Factor % GWh Landfill Gas (1) 15 70 92 Biomass (3) 128 70 785 Wind Onshore (13) 1,011 30 2,657 Wind Offshore (1) 462 38 1,538 Total 1,616 5,072 24
Outlook for Meeting RPS with NE Projects By 2010 18 proposed projects in the queue could meet the net new RPS requirements if all are built 14 of these are wind projects By 2015 The proposed projects in the queue would provide just over 50% of the projected net new RPS requirements if all are built This leaves a compliance gap for new projects to fill Projects outside the region could help: NY and other states If existing, proposed and new renewable projects meet the required growth in RPS energy, they would provide 6.5% of the region s energy 25
What are the implications for planning? Strong economic and environmental incentives exist to increase conservation, energy efficiency and demand response as well as to add generation at the load. Energy prices and state policies are the drivers to slow down energy growth Attract renewable projects to the market to meet RPS. Issues are interconnections and increase in intermittent energy Attract new zero and low CO 2 emitting resources to meet the remaining market needs e.g. nuclear, coal with CO 2 sequestration, and natural gas combined cycle. 26
Questions? Contact: Jim Platts, ISO New England jeplatts@iso-ne.com 413 540-4516 27