Emerging issues in urbanization, internal migration and development United Nations Jorge Bravo, Population Division, DESA Seminar on Population Distribution and Development, New York, 1 December 2009
Two parts I. Urbanization and city growth II. Development and living conditions in urban and rural areas
I. Urbanization in the world
Global urban and rural population, 1950-2050 6,500 6,000 5,500 Urban population Rural population 5,000 4,500 Population (millions) 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Urban and rural population by development region, 1950-2050 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 More developed regions, urban population Less developed regions, urban population More developed regions, rural population Less developed regions, rural population Population (millions) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Urbanization by geographical region 100 Population living in urban areas (percentage) 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 1950 1975 2007 2050 72 66 66 62 51 39 41 26 24 15 17 84 41 61 78 89 64 74 81 90 62 72 71 76 10 0 Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Northern America Oceania
In what type of cities? Megacities have high visibility, and some have grown very fast indeed, e.g., Mumbai, Delhi, Karachi, Istanbul), but they still represent less than 10% of the world population; Most urbanites live in cities of less than 500 thousand inhabitants, and more than 4/5 of them live in cities under 5 million people
Population of urban agglomerations with 10 million inhabitants or more
In what type of cities? Megacities have high visibility, and some have grown very fast indeed, e.g., Mumbai, Delhi, Karachi, Istanbul), but they still represent less than 10% of the world population; Most urbanites live in cities of less than 500 thousand inhabitants, and more than 4/5 of them live in cities under 5 million people (see ICPD, chapter IX)
Components of urban growth Natural increase (urban births-deaths) makes a sizeable (often main) contribution to city growth in most developing countries Notable exceptions are China and India, where rural-urban urban migration and reclassification have accounted for 70% to 80% of urban growth in recent decades
Components of urban growth Internal migration is a dynamic, critically important mechanism of economic transformation: a) Internal population movements are much more massive than international b) Intra-rural and intra-urban migration are as important or larger than the rural-urban flows c) Economic theory and empirical evidence suggest that key motives to migrate are higher expected earnings at destinations, receipt of cash income, and diversification of risk
II. Living conditions in urban and rural areas
Spatial distribution of the population About 1/10 of the world population lives in lowelevation coastal zones, which could be exposed to the risk of increased sea levels brought about by global warming; However, a more significant and immediate risk is faced by the 1/6 of the world population that lives in arid and semi-arid regions, including 250 million directly affected by desertification, most of which are in the developing world;
Demographic structure of urban and rural areas Both urban and rural areas have experienced population ageing in both MDCs and LDCs, and the differences in urban-rural age structure remain notable only in LDCs; Cities in LDCs are home to large numbers of young adults (urban youth bulge ); Cities throughout the world are increasingly becoming the home of the older population, especially women
Poverty in urban and rural areas Recent study by the World Bank (2007) shows: During 1993-2002, the urban share of poor people has increased, due mostly to rapid urbanization and to significant declines in rural poverty rates But the poor population remains largely concentrated in rural areas (75%), and Poverty rates in urban areas remain substantially lower (less than ½) than in rural areas
Health and mortality in urban and rural areas Ample evidence that in the LDCs, living conditions, health and survivorship are better in cities than in the countryside (Montgomery, 2008). Health and general living conditions have not always been good in cities; in fact they were very bad during the early industrialization of the current MDCs. Also, health indicators and child mortality in city slums can be worse than in the rural areas of some countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (e.g., in Kenya and Zambia; Fotso and colleagues, 2008). Thus it is in the cities of the poor countries that better access to health services, including reproductive health promoted in ICPD is likely to have a greater impact on improving living conditions.
Life expectancy and urbanization, 1950-2007.
Health and mortality in urban and rural areas Ample evidence that in the LDCs, living conditions, health and survivorship are better in cities than in the countryside (Montgomery, 2008). Health and general living conditions have not always been good in cities; in fact they were very bad during the early industrialization of the current MDCs. Also, health indicators and child mortality in city slums can be worse than in the rural areas of some countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (e.g., in Kenya and Zambia; Fotso and colleagues, 2008). Thus it is in the cities of the poor countries that better access to health services, including reproductive health promoted in ICPD is likely to have a greater impact in improving living conditions
Conclusions Cities have become the predominant habitat of humans. They host increasing numbers of older persons (especially women) in MDCs,, and young adults in the LCDs; Natural increase continues to make a sizeable contribution to urban growth. Internal migration, an engine of city growth in many countries, benefits the individuals who move, their families and the aggregate economy, by redistributing labour force toward more productive occupations This, together with the lower dependency ratios in urban areas, provide an opportunity for economic growth and development
Conclusion (cont.) The world s s poor are increasingly concentrated in urban areas, but still today a great majority live in rural areas. Since urban poverty rates are lower than in rural areas in all the regions of the world, continued urbanization is expected to make a positive contribution in improving living conditions of the population. Continued urbanization will probably also have an overall positive effect on the health status and mortality indicators. Nonetheless, efforts to improve access to health services, including those for reproductive health promoted in ICPD, will likely lead to much greater impact in improving living conditions
Thank you http://www.un.org/esa/population/unpop.htm