THE TEN WORST IDEAS IN ENERGY FUTURE Dr Pasi Vainikka WIND FINLAND 2015 TECHNOPOLIS RUOHOLAHTI, HELSINKI 29 OCT.
/ THE OPTIONS FOR ENERGY SOURCES
CCS NUCLEAR RENEWABLES
One view on the transition Michael Sterner, Ingo Stadler. Energiespeicher - Bedarf, Technologien, Integration. Springer Vieweg, 2014. 978-3642373794
/ WHAT S NEW?
/MWh 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Natural gas Coal Oil LNG 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Natural gas Coal Oil LNG Solar PV 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 /MWh
900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Natural gas Coal Oil LNG Solar PV Wind Power Li-ion battery Power-to-gas 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 /MWh
/ GLOBAL TRANSITION OR NOT
Power Generation New capacity Power plant capacity addings: ~250 GW/y PV capacity addings 2014: ~39 GW (~16% of all addings) Source: Courtesy of Javier Farfan & Christian Breyer, LUT
/ EXAPLE OF PROGRESS
/ DENMARK JULY 2015 From hourly averages 2015 - Wind from consumption: ONLY 43% - Capacity factor: 34%, 2940h - Installed capacity: 4900 MW
/ RENEWABLES. TO WHERE?
WHERE? ALL the sectors in the middle need to be electrified + energy storage needed
/ HOW?
SOLAR AND WIND NEOCARBONISATION STORAGE
/ HOW DOES IT LOOK IN OPERATION
Production follows consumption every second Finland, February 2012 Source: Nordpool, 2012
Case: East Japan 2050 Source: Breyer, C., Bogdanov, D., et al., 2014. North-East Asian Super Grid for 100% Renewable Energy power supply. http://bit.ly/1or7ykz
/ IT S THE INTERNET OF EVERYTHING, MAN
POWER PLANT TRANSMISSION RESIDENTIAL INDUSTRIAL COMMERCIAL ONE-WAY POWER SYSTEM THE ENERGY CLOUD
/ WHICH TECHNOLOGIES
Storages Michael Sterner, Ingo Stadler. Energiespeicher - Bedarf, Technologien, Integration. Springer Vieweg, 2014. 978-3642373794
/ 100% RENEWABLE. NOW. AN EXAMPLE
Snapshot for EU legislation post 2020 Finland needs market or near market piloting and progressive legislation
/ POWER-TO-X Q Q H 2 O CO 2 Electrolysis H 2 CO 2 reduction process C x H y O z O 2 H 2 O Excess electricity Excess electricity to chemicals, fuels and materials by using CO 2 Replacing crude oil, gas and gas condensates sähköpolttoaineet
Renewable synthetic natural gas Hybrid PV-Wind & Battery Power-to-Gas SNG Liquefaction LNG Shipping LNG Regasification Source: M. Fasihi, M., Bogdanov, D., Breyer, C., 2015. Economics of global LNG trading based on hybrid PV-Wind power plants. 31st European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference (EU PVSEC) http://bit.ly/1oy5xcg
LNG-from-air production System integration benefits: 87% of energy needed for CO 2 capture plant is coming from excess heat 48% of electrolyzer s water demand coming out of methanation LNG value chain eff.: 89% Overall efficiency: 58% *LT: low temperature **HT: high temperature Source: M. Fasihi, M., Bogdanov, D., Breyer, C., 2015. Economics of global LNG trading based on hybrid PV-Wind power plants. 31st European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference (EU PVSEC) http://bit.ly/1oy5xcg
Cost Distribution in RE-LNG Value Chain Cost [ /MWhth] 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 22.89 Costs in RE- LNG Value Chain (WACC 0.07) 30.46 Water CO2 Energy Loss Plant 6.77 0.08 Hyb. PV- Wind Elec.&Meth. LiquefacDon 7.19 3.69 1.81 65.61 11.16 12.03 Shipping ARG- JPN RegasificaDon RE- SNG Japan RE- SNG Cost DistribuDon [% share of total] 10 46 Hyb. PV- Wind LiquefacDon RegasificaDon 6 3 35 Elec.&Meth. Shipping ARG- JPN LCOG (7% WACC): 65.6 /MWh th 25.7 USD/MMBtu 148.9 USD/bbl LCOG (5% WACC): 56.1 /MWh th 22 USD/MMBtu 128.4 USD/bbl USD/ = 1.35 Source: M. Fasihi, M., Bogdanov, D., Breyer, C., 2015. Economics of global LNG trading based on hybrid PV-Wind power plants. 31st European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference (EU PVSEC) http://bit.ly/1oy5xcg
Source: M. Fasihi, M., Bogdanov, D., Breyer, C., 2015. Economics of global LNG trading based on hybrid PV-Wind power plants. 31st European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference (EU PVSEC) http://bit.ly/1oy5xcg
/ THE TEN WORST IDEAS IN ENERGY FUTURE
/ THE TEN WORST IDEAS IN ENERGY FUTURE 1. Renewable energy is expensive 2. Digitalisation does not accelerate energy transition 3. Electricity price can not be below zero 4. Basic industry needs baseload power 5. Cheap energy creates industrial jobs 6. Combined heat and power is cheap and efficient 7. Bioenergy reduces emissions 8. Oil refining is facing destruction 9. Energy is about energy 10. Capitalism and free markets have led to climate change
EMISSION-FREE FUTURE NOW AVAILABLE
NEO-CARBON ENERGY project is one of the Tekes strategic research openings and the project is carried out in cooperation with Technical Research Centre of Finland VTT Ltd, Lappeenranta University of Technology LUT and University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre FFRC.