Environmental and Transportation Policy on Emission Mitigations in Shanghai, China Huang Cheng Chen Changhong Li Li (Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences, Shanghai 2233, China) Abstract: Shanghai is one of the biggest cities in China in terms of its population and economic activities. Fast economic growth and increase in average income drive a higher demand on the transport. The number of motor vehicles in Shanghai has been growing rapidly, which has brought a heavy pressure on both environment and transportation. To mitigate the vehicle emissions and to protect citizens health, Shanghai switched to lead-free gas in 1997, and started Euro I and Euro II emission standards in 1999 and 23, respectively. However, the air pollution related to vehicle emissions remains an alarming situation, due to the rapid growth of vehicle population. The Municipal Government of Shanghai and related administrative bodies have to meet the challenge of controlling motor vehicle pollution, improving environment and air quality, and improving residents health level, so as to achieve a well balanced development in social economy, environment, and transportation. In this paper, the economic, transportation and air quality situations were described in detail. Based on the relationship among the above factors, vehicle emissions were predicted using and IVE Model under three scenarios. The scenarios were set up based on proposed policies. Results show that the CO, VOC, NOx, PM, and CO 2 emissions from vehicles in the business as usual () scenario reach 1823 kt, 143 kt, 121 kt, 18 kt, and 25.5 million tons respectively in 22, which are 3.2, 1.8, 1.4, 1.5, and 2.3 times of those emissions in 24. However, if environmental and transportation measures are adopted in time by the policy makers, namely Euro III and Euro IV emission standards will be implemented in 27 and 29; I/M program for in-use vehicles will be performed in 26; cars elder than 1 years will be scraped; carburetor vehicles are forbidden to enter the city center, etc., the pollutant and CO 2 emissions will decrease significantly. CO, VOC, NOx, PM and CO 2 emissions will be 574, 7.6, 5.5, 7.1 thousand tons and 22.4 million tons in 22, being 69%, 5%, 58%, 6% and 12% lower than the scenario. Results show that if all the policies advised in this paper are well implemented, there will be significant mitigation on vehicle emissions. Key Words: Vehicle emission, Environment, Transportation, Policy, GHG mitigation, Shanghai 1. Introduction Shanghai is one of the biggest cities with the population over 18 million, being the fifth largest city in the world. Rapid economic growth has accelerated its process of urbanization and motorization, leading to a rapid increasing trip demand and fast growth of road traffic in Shanghai. Particularly in resent years, the vehicle population in Shanghai has been increasing rapidly, reaching 2.3 million (including mopeds) by the end of 24 (Shanghai Statistic Year Book, 25). Although some environmental and transportation policies were put into practice since early 199s, which has brought improvements in both transportation and environment fields, Shanghai are still facing with huge environmental and transportation pressure due to the rapid growth of Corresponding author.. Tel: +86-21-648 5119. Fax: +86-21-6484 7827. Email address: seschen25@21cn.com. 1
transportation volume and vehicle population (Chen et al, 1997). Shanghai started to use unleaded gasoline in 1997, and adopted Euro I and Euro II emission standards on July 1 st 1999 and March 1 st 23, respectively. Even though, vehicle emissions are still heavy (Huang et al., 23). The environmental monitoring data show that NO x and PM 1 concentration were still high in Shanghai (Shanghai Environment Protection Bureau, 24) in 24. It can be predicted that with the appearance of much more transportation problems, environment and climate change issues will be faced in the near future in Shanghai. Controlling vehicle pollution, improving air quality, and enhancing the health level for the civics are fatal tasks to Shanghai municipal government. 2. Economy and Transport 2.1 Current Economic Situation Gross domestic products (GDP) has been continuously growing at a high speed since early 199s in Shanghai. By 24, GDP of Shanghai has been growing with an increase rate over 1% for 13 years. The GDP of Shanghai amounted RMB 745 billion (approx. USD 92 billion) by the end of 24. The GDP per capita is over USD 45, and over USD 65 is based on registered population (Shanghai Statistic Book, 25), as shown in figure. With the increase of household and personal income, the share of expenses on food keeps decreasing. As defined by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (UNFAO), when the Engel Coefficient is or over 6 percent, it is labeled poor; 5-59 percent is labeled basic; 4-49 percent, well-off; 3-39 percent, affluent; and 2-29 percent, rich (Shanghai Statistic Year Book, 25). The overall living standard of the urban residents in Shanghai has achieved well-off since 1998, see figure 2. GDP Volume, 亿元 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Engel coefficient / % 8 7 6 5 4 3 Above 59% as poverty Between 4% and 5% as comparatively well off Between 3% and 4% as affluence Between 5% and 59% as warmly dressed and well 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 2 1 Below 3% as very rich Primary Secondary Tertiary 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 Figure 1. GDP of Shanghai, 198-23 Figure 2. Trend of the Living Quality of Shanghai Residents 2.2 Vehicle growth The increasing trend of residents income and per capita GDP leads to a fast growth of urban mobilization. Statistics show that the vehicle population has a close correlation with per capita GDP. In case of Shanghai, the cut-point is 4 USD in per capita GDP. When per capita GDP is greater than 4 USD, the growth rate of vehicle population is much faster than the one with lower than 4 USD, see figure 3. 2
Vehicle ownership, 1 3 25 2 15 1 5 y =.1889x - 53.275 R 2 =.9945 y =.5427x - 131.9 R 2 =.9759 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 GDP per capita (2'price), USD per capita Figure 3. Vehicle population p vs. GDP Growth Figure 4 shows that Shanghai is moving from bicycle era, before 1985 when per capita GDP was lower than 1 USD, to private cars period starting from 1999 when per capita GDP was lower than 4 USD. Between 1985 and 1999, it was a moped period when per capita GDP was 1 USD to 4 USD. Due to the difference of residents income, people are using different travel tools for traveling, see figure 5. GDP per capita,usd/person ('s price) 6 5 4 3 2 1 Bicycle period 1965 1975 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 period 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 Car period 21 23 Accumulated percentage / % 1 Bicycles and on foot s L Low income people Medium income people High income people Private cars 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 Disposable income per capita / Yuan Figure 4. GDP Per Capita vs. Level of Mobilization Figure 5. Disposable Income Per Capita vs. Level of Mobilization 2.3 Air Qualities Lots of emission control policies have been performed since middle of 198s mainly on stationary emission sources. Factories were relocated from city center to industrial park in the rural area; fuel quality was strictly controlled in terms of surfer content and heat value in coal, and so on. These policies and actions changed the city from an industrial center to a business and service center. Air quality has been improved in the last decades. From figure 6 we can see, the coal-burning related pollutants, SO 2 and TSP, has declined since 199. However, although Euro I and Euro II emission standards for new vehicles were implemented, the trend of air pollution shows that the reduction caused by these policies were less than vehicle emission growth due to fast increase of vehicle population. 3
.12.4.1 Air quality Standards.35.3 Air Quality Standard SO2 level, mg/m3.8.6.4 TSP, mg/m3.25.2.15.1.2.5. 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26. 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 City Avg. Urban City Avg. Urban.12.1 NOx Level, mg/m3.8.6.4.2. 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 City Avg. Urban Figure 6. Air quality in Shanghai 199-24 3. Future Vehicle Emission 3.1 Tools for Vehicle Emission Estimation Many scholars in China are using the U.S. or European based emission models to estimate vehicle emission in Chinese cities. Examples include the work done by Fu, Zhu, He, and Li for Beijing, Guangzhou, and Nanjing (Fu et al., 1997; Zhu, 1997; He et al., 1998; Fu et al., 2; Li et al., 21; Li et al., 23). While these approaches provide a basic estimation of vehicle emissions, there are many uncertainties since emission factors, for example, are based on model year of the U.S. To better understand the impact of transport and environmental policy on vehicle emission, an on-site survey including vehicle technology, vehicle start-up, vehicle driving behavior, and emission in a real world was performed in 24. This work was conducted by the Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences (SAES) and the University of California, Riverside (UCR), supported by U.S. Energy Foundation, USEPA, and EMBARQ (SAES, ISSRC, GSSR, UCR, 25). The emission model used here is International Vehicle Emission (IVE) model which is developed by International Sustainable Systems Research Center (ISSRC), and the UCR which funded by USEPA (http://www.issrc.org/ive). The update work was done before the model application for policy analysis (Wang H et al., 26). 3.2 Vehicle Emission Estimation 1) The Structure of Transportation and Environmental Projection System Figure 7 shows the structure of transportation and environmental projection system used in this study. The system has the following causal relationships: with the development of economy, trip demand will increase correspondingly; more frequent travels induce more vehicle population in the future in Shanghai; emissions from the vehicles will definitely cause degradation of local air 4
quality in Shanghai if without any further environmental friendly policy or actions. How to mitigate the air quality deterioration while keeping the whole transportation still growing will be a crucial topic for policy makers in the near future in Shanghai. Economic development Transport demand Transport system Vehicle Population increase GDP per capita Income per capita Others Vehicle population increase Road construction Transportation modal split Income per capita Income per capita 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 35 Transport saturation 3 25 2 15 1 5 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 35 Air quality degadation 3 Integrated Assessment of sustainability of transport Environmental issues Air pollutant emission and air quality degradation Income per capita 25 2 15 1 5 Air quality improvement 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 Figure 7. The Interrelations between Key Factors in Transportation and Environment 2) GDP growth and trip demand To estimate emission from transport, Huang (Huang et al, 25a, and 25b) collected GDP and trip volume in terms of person-times, and ton kilometers from 198 s to 23, and build a GDP and trip model for Shanghai, see figure 8. It shows that the trip volume in future Shanghai will keep increasing when the GDP growth. 年出行总量, 亿人次 14 13 12 11 y = 31.92Ln(x) - 136.57 R 2 =.9687 1998 年 2 年 1 1995 年 9 8 1986 年 7 6 1 2 3 4 5 GDP 总量 (2 年价格 ), 亿元 年货运总量, 亿吨公里 8 7 y = 34.495Ln(x) - 233.1 R 2 =.9867 2 年 23 年 6 5 4 1997 年 3 2 1 1986 年 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 GDP 总量 (2 年价格 ), 亿元 Figure 8a GDP and trip volume in person-times, 1986-2 Figure 8b GDP and freight volume in ton-kilometers, 1986-2 Passenger and freight transportation volume in future Shanghai can be expressed in formula (1) and (2): Passenger transportation volume = 35.554 Ln(GDP) - 17.51, R2=.9631 (1) Freight transportation volume = 34.495 Ln(GDP) 233.1, R2=.9867 (2) In which, the unit of GDP is RMB 1 million (2 price). The assume GDP growth rate for trip volume projection is listed in table 1. Based on the assumed, it can be predicted that the passenger trip demand and freight transport demand will increase 25% and 48%, respectively. 5
Table 1 Trip volume estimation for future, 24-22 Year GDP growth rate GDP value Passenger Trip Demand Freight Transport Demand % Billion RMB Billion Person-times Billion Ton-kilometers 24 9.2 745 14.3 7.1 21 7. 134 15.8 8.6 215 6.3 14 16.9 9.6 22 5.5 183 17.8 1.5 If the transportation split model doesn t change greatly, it can be estimated that the vehicle population will be greater than 3 millions in total in 22, which is 1.5 times of that in 24. The growth of vehicle population and trip mileage is shown in figure 9 and figure 1. Vehicle Population, thousand 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 1995 2 25 21 215 22 Figure 9. Growth of vehicle population, 1995-22 Vehicle Kilometer Travels billion kilometers 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1995 2 25 21 215 22 Figure 1. Growth of trip mileage, 1995-22 3) Vehicle emission in business as usual scenario Figure 11 presents the future emission from vehicles in business as usual () scenario (SAES, et al. 26). It can be seen that CO, VOC, NOx, PM, and CO 2 emission will reach 1823 kt, 143 kt, 121 kt, 18 kt, and 25.5 million tons per year in 22, which are 3.2, 1.8, 1.4, 1.5, and 2.3 times of those in 24. From the figure we can see that passenger cars are the main source of CO, VOC, and CO 2 emissions. In addition, trucks, buses and passenger cars are the main sources of NOx and PM 1 emissions. 6
CO Emission, K ton 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 26 28 21 215 22 VOC Emission, K ton 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 26 28 21 215 22 NOx Emission, K ton 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 26 28 21 215 22 PM Emission, K ton 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 26 28 21 215 22 CO2 Emission, M ton 3 25 2 15 1 5 26 28 21 215 22 Figure 11 Future vehicle emission in business as usual scenario 4. Environmental and Transportation Policy and Emission Scenarios 4.1 Proposed Environmental and Transportation Policy Leading the city to move from private transport to public transit, hundred kilometers subways will be built, as shown in figure12 (http://www.bepet.net/post/62.html). By 22, 22% of the total passenger trip demand will be transported by subway system, other 22% will be transported by buses, 25% will is transported by private cars (SAES, 25). To reduce vehicle emissions and improve the air quality, the lately launched Three-year Action Plan for Environmental Protection in Shanghai (SEPB, 26) request that Euro III emission standards for buses and taxi to be implemented since July, 26, and for all vehicles in 27. New vehicles with low emissions will replace those with high emissions. Meanwhile, Shanghai will strengthen the vehicle inspection and maintenance (IM) program for in-use vehicles. The old and heavy polluted trucks will be scrapped out by introducing new trucks. Vehicles with carburetor technology are forbidden to enter the highway inside the Inner Ring Road area since February 15, 26, and the forbidden area will be enlarged to all roads inside the Inner Ring Road since October 1, 26. 7
Figure 12 Future subway system in Shanghai 4.2 Policy and emission scenarios 1) Policy Translation Three scenarios were simulated in this study. One is public transit scenario (SCE. 1), in which we suppose 8 km subway will be built step by step. The subway system will provide 5% of the transport service of total passenger trip volume in Shanghai by 22. Scenario two (SCE. 2) is a combination of proposed policies which include Euro III and Euro IV implementation, old car scrapage, I/M program, etc. In the scenario, all the road facilities keep the same as the one in 24 except trip volume. More description of policies for modeling is listed and shown in table 2 and figure 13. SCE. 1 SCE. 2 Table 2 Scenario and policy translation Policy Definitions Transport facilities and emission control would be iness as usual as same as the one in 24, except the trip volume. More than 8 km long subway will be built, and it will take 22% of total passenger trip volume by Public Transit 22. es will take second 22%, private cars take 25%, taxis take 5%, etc Euro III and Euro IV emission standards will be implemented in 27 and 29. IM for in-use Emission Control vehicles will be built in 26. Cars with more than Scenario 1 years age would be scraped. Carburetor vehicles is ban entering into city center, etc. 8
Figure 13a. Public transit scenario Figure 13b. environmental policy scenario 2) Vehicle emission comparisons In the public transit scenario (SCE.1), a new city transport development prospect was designed to fulfill a more sustainable transportation system in Shanghai. In this scenario, share of public transport, such as bus and metro, were enhanced in future instead of private transport. To evaluate the emission mitigation between scenario and SCE 1, vehicle emission projections was simulated by IVE model, which is listed in table 3. Table 3. Vehicle Emission Projection of and SCE 1 Scenario Pollutant Unit 26 28 21 215 22 CO K ton 684 855 116 1432 1823 VOC K ton 72.5 81.3 91.5 117.7 142.6 SCE 1 NOx K ton 91.1 92.3 96.1 18.1 121.2 PM K ton 12.2 12.4 12.9 15.3 17.7 CO 2 M ton 12.7 14.4 16.1 2.7 25.5 CO K ton 665 816 95 1271 1563 VOC K ton 7.2 76.8 84.4 11.8 117. NOx K ton 9.2 9.6 93.2 12.3 111.9 PM K ton 12. 12.1 12.4 14.2 15.9 CO 2 M ton 12.4 13.6 14.9 18.4 22. When the modal splits were shifted from private to public transit, local vehicle pollutant emissions and CO 2 emission will decrease correspondingly. CO, VOC, NOx, PM and CO 2 emission will be 1563, 117., 111.9, 15.9 thousand tons and 22. million ton in 22 in scenario SCE 1, being 14%, 18%, 8%, 1% and 14% lower than the scenario. Figure 14 demonstrates the benefits of developing public transport on climate change and environment in Shanghai. 9
CO Emission, K ton 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 2 25 21 215 22 225 VOC Emission, K ton 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 2 25 21 215 22 225 NOx Emission, K ton 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 2 25 21 215 22 225 PM Emission, K ton 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 2 25 21 215 22 225 CO2 Emission, M ton 3 25 2 15 1 5 2 25 21 215 22 225 Figure 14. Vehicle Emission Projection of and SCE 1. Besides the public transit development policy, vehicle emission control strategies, such as new vehicle emission standard, I/M program, old car scrapage, etc. (SCE 2), could be considered as more immediate measures to control the vehicle emission growth in Shanghai. Table 4 and figure 15 present the simulation results from IVE when environment policy combined with public transit policy (SCE 2+SCE 1). From table 4 and figure 15 we can see that CO, VOC, NOx, PM and CO 2 emissions will be down to 574, 7.6, 5.5, 7.1 thousand tons and 22.4 million tons in 22 in scenario SCE 2+SCE 1, being 69%, 5%, 58%, 6% and 12% lower than scenario. It is obvious that vehicle emission control policy will be a direct and effective way to mitigate criteria vehicle emissions in Shanghai. As for CO 2, the improvement of vehicle exhaust control technology could not restrain its growth, while shifting the modal splits of residents in a macro scale to public transport would be a better option for Shanghai. Compared to the scenario, emission intensity would be reduced greatly if transport and environment policy (SCE 2 + SCE 1) is well implemented. The hot pot area in the city center will turn into light, more people could avoid exposure to high pollutions in future, see figure 16. 1
Table 4. Vehicle Emission Projection of, Sce 1 and Sce 2. Scenario Pollutant Unit 26 28 21 215 22 CO K ton 684 855 116 1432 1823 VOC K ton 72.5 81.3 91.5 117.7 142.6 NOx K ton 91.1 92.3 96.1 18.1 121.2 PM K ton 12.2 12.4 12.9 15.3 17.7 CO 2 M ton 12.7 14.4 16.1 2.7 25.5 SCE 1 CO K ton 665 816 95 1271 1563 VOC K ton 7.2 76.8 84.4 11.8 117. NOx K ton 9.2 9.6 93.2 12.3 111.9 PM K ton 12. 12.1 12.4 14.2 15.9 CO 2 M ton 12.4 13.6 14.9 18.4 22. SCE 2+ SCE 1 CO K ton 517 554 55 529 574 VOC K ton 6.8 63.3 64.7 65.7 7.6 NOx K ton 8.9 72.8 65.7 47.4 5.5 PM K ton 1.2 9. 8. 6.8 7.1 CO 2 M ton 12.5 13.8 15.1 18.9 22.4 CO Emission, K ton 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Sce.2 2 25 21 215 22 225 VOC Emission, K ton 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Sce.2 2 25 21 215 22 225 NOx Emission, K ton 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Sce.2 2 25 21 215 22 225 PM Emission, K ton 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Sce.2 2 25 21 215 22 225 CO2 Emission, M ton 3 25 2 15 1 5 Sce.2 2 25 21 215 22 225 Figure 15. Vehicle Emission Projection of, SCE 1 and SCE 2+SCE 1 11
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