US-China Bilateral Collaboration in Air Quality Modeling Assessment

Transcription

1 US-China Bilateral Collaboration in Air Quality Modeling Assessment Carey Jang, Ph.D. Office of Air and Radiation U.S. Environmental Protection Agency RTP, NC, USA 美国国家环境保护署国家环境保护署 AWMA, Xian, China 5/11/2010 张志诚

2 USA China

3 Air Pollution in China Air pollution is a very severe issue in China China has 7 of the 10 most air-polluted cities in the world 5.8% of China GDP (~US$100 Billion) lost to environmental pollution (air pollution s health damage: ~3.8%) WHO estimates >700,000 premature deaths/yr from air pollution alone China is top SO2 and CO2 emitter Air pollution has no national boundary U.S. is part of China s environmental problems Work Bank Report, February 2007

4 US-China Air Quality Modeling Assessment Projects Under US-China Clean Air & Energy Strategy Cooperation on Regional Air Quality Management as Part of the Air Annex of the MOU between China s MEP and the U.S. EPA Regional AQ Management: Conferences/Workshops (Fall in Beijing; Spring in GD & 2008 in Shanghai) Beijing/Bohai Region, Yangtze River Delta (YRD) Region, Pearl River Delta (PRD) Region: 3 Key regions producing 70% of China s GDP China Regional & Urban AQ Modeling Assessment: Three-Phase Studies Focused on since 2003

5 U.S.-China Strategy on Clean Air and Energy Cooperation China AQ Modeling & Emissions Projects 4-km Beijing & Shanghai modeling & EI are continuing Phase 2 36-km 12-km PRD modeling & EI Initiated in 2007 Phase 3 Phase 1 China national/regional pilot modeling effort

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7 Impact of Local vs. Transported PM 2.5 on Beijing Area Regional Transport + Local Emissions Local Emissions Contribution Regional Transport Contribution Beijing Beijing Beijing Model Nesting Clean B.C. Remove Beijing Emissions PM 2.5 Episodic Average (July 1-20, )

8 Joint Economic Study (JES): China 11 th Five-Year Year-Plan Air Quality Benefit Modeling Project China USA U.S. EPA and China MEP : Phase I:

9 JES: Integrated AQ Modeling Assessment Decision Support System C-PAC Cost Estimate Tool Decision-maker/Analyst Policies Modeling Framework CMAQ Air Quality Model Impacts BenMAP Health Benefits Model Emissions Air Quality China Pollution Abatement Cost Tool Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model Benefit Mapping Tool Cost/Benefit Analysis Emissions Control Air Quality Benefit Health Benefit

10 JES: China AQ Benefit Modeling Assessment Conduct national AQ modeling assessment of key air quality benefits resulting from China s 11th Five-Year- Plan ( ) on 10% SO2 emissions reduction control scenarios in the Chinese Power Sectors Baseline Year 2005 Future Year Growth (No-control) Scenario SO2 Control Scenario NOx Control Scenario

11 2005 & 2010 SO2 Emission Scenarios SO2 Emission (kt/yr) % Ind SP LP 2005 Base +63% +63% +63% +63% Dom Ind SP LP 2010 Growth (No-Control) Transportation Domestic Industries Small powerplants Large powerplants -39% -60% -61% -21% (-52%) Ind SP LP 2010 Control 2005 Non-Control Control 2010 Growth scenario (SO2 & other man-made emissions) : man-made emissions growth factor based on coal & petroleum use growth factor (63% & 46%, respectively) Data source: National Bureau of Statistics of China. China Statistical Yearbook 2010 control SO2 scenario : 11 th 5-year plan ( ) SO2 control policy (new + existing) Industries 31.1% Industries 39.6% 2010 Growth Domestic 9.0% Domestic 11.5% Transportation 0.3% Large pow erplants 18.4% 2010 Control Transportation Large 0.5% powerplants 14.6% Small powerplants 41.2% Small powerplants 33.8%

12 SO 2 : SO 2 Control Benefit (Annual Avg.) 2010 Growth 2010 SO2 Control Diff. : (Control Growth) % : (Control Growth)

13 PM SO 4 2- : SO 2 Control Benefit (Annual Avg.) 2010 Growth 2010 SO2 Control Diff. : (Control Growth) % : (Control Growth)

14 Sulfate Deposition: SO 2 Control Benefit (Annual Avg.) 2010 Growth 2010 SO2 Control Diff. : (Control Growth) % : (Control Growth)

15 JES: Integrated AQ Modeling Assessment Decision Support System C-PAC Cost Estimate Tool Decision-maker/Analyst Policies Modeling Framework CMAQ Response Surface Model Impacts (Real-Time Air Quality Control/Response) Model BenMAP Health Benefits Model Emissions Air Quality China Pollution Abatement Cost Tool Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model Benefit Mapping Tool Cost/Benefit Analysis Emissions Control Air Quality Benefit Health Benefit

16 Summer Winter PM2.5 Response Surface Modeling

17 Summer Winter

18 RSM: Overview Control strategy assessment tool Provide the Real-time model response of emissions control Model sensitivity Evaluate sensitivity of model predictions to changes in emissions (precursors, source categories, etc). Sector Control Factors Matrix MM5/CMAQ Simulated Air Quality Policy Objectives Region Predicted Air Quality Response Surface Summary Metrics Validation Optimization of cost/benefit Help develop cost-effective control strategies leading to optimal benefit of air quality/health Y Emission Reduction Effect N

19 RSM Application in China Domain 1 Domain 2 Model system: MM5v3/CMAQ4.7 Chemical Mechanism: CB05 Horizontal Resolution: 12 km 12 km; Vertical Resolution: 23 Layers <MM5>; 14 Layers<CMAQ>; Grid Number (Domain2): ; Time Period: Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct. in 2008 Space Filling: (Control ratio 0%~120%) Air Quality Comparison under different control strategies PM 2.5 concentration, Daily Average Jul 28 th, 2008 Control Factors Matrix

20 RSM Application in China Emission Source groupings PP: Power Plant TRA: Transportation IND: Industry DOM: Domestic NOx-PP; NOx-IN; NOx-TRA+DOM; SO2-PP; SO2-IN; SO2-TRA+DOM; NH3-TOT; VOC-TRA; VOC-DOM+IND; EC/OC-PP+IN; EC/OC-TRA+DOM; PM_OTH-TOT; Beijing No Interaction among Four Regions (PM2.5 Aug, 2008) Wuhan Shanghai Guangzhou Taiwan

21 China RSM Applications & Visualization RSM-VPA (visual Policy Analyzer) RSM- VT (visualization Tool) Beijing

22 RSM-VT

23 Summary A series of successful China regional/urban multi-pollutant modeling projects have been conducted, including recent Beijing Olympic and JES AQ cost/benefit modeling; PM and O3 will emerge as key regional/urban air pollutants in China; Regional transport plays an important role in contributing to urban AQ problems, (e.g., regional transport contributes 30% ~ 60% to Beijing PM &O3 ) Response Surface Modeling can serve as an effective control strategy assessment and policy analysis tool in China

24 USA: US-China AQ Modeling & Emissions Project Team U.S.EPA: Carey Jang (Project lead), Dale Evarts, Scott Voorhees, Jeremy Schreifels, Sharon Phillips North Carolina State Univ.: Yang Zhang, Kai Wang, Yaosheng Chen DOE/Argonne Lab: David Streets, Qiang Zhang Univ. of Tennessee: Joshua Fu, Li Zuopan Lamar Univ.: Jerry Lin China: Bohai/Beijing: Hao Jiming, He Kebin, Wang Shuxiao, Wang Litao, Lei Yu, Xing Jia (Tsinghua Univ.), Chai Fahe (CRAES), etc. YRD/Shanghai: Chen Changhong, Li Lily (SAES), Fu Qingyan (SEMC), etc. PRD/Guangdong/HK: Yun Zhu, Xuemei Wang, Alexis Lau, Jimmy Fung, Roger Kwok, etc.

25 THANK YOU! 谢谢 Carey Jang US EPA Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards