European Freight Forwarding Index 1 February 1 Sentiment is improving in the freight market Johannes Møller joml@danskebank.dk +45 45 12 36
Main conclusion from survey Our proprietary European Freight Forwarding Index shows a significant improvement on the leading part of the index, sending a clear signal that volumes are expected to improve within a couple of months following a weak start to 1. Our overall market view has been confirmed, that the recovery in the freight market is in place, but the speed of the recovery is limited so far. European Freight Forwarding Index 7 5 55 5 51 68 3 Jan-9 Mar-9 May-9 Jul-9 Sep-9 Nov-9 Jan-1 Mar-1
Sentiment is improving in the freight market Our freight forwarding index continues to slide for the current situation sending a clear signal that 1 has started off on a weak note. However the underlying recovery in the freight market is still in place and the index is rising significantly on the leading part. We believe that the main driver in the recent movements in the market is that industrial i companies have held a longer Christmas holiday than normal. This is exactly the same situation as during summer 9, when volumes picked up again after the slow summer break. We keep our view that the market is still in a recovery mode, but the recovery is slow and gradual. Looking at the various segments, the uptick in sentiment is most significant within Seafreight. This is in line with the information we are receiving from industry sources in this segment, that tell us rates are rising extremely fast these days as vessels are fully booked and carriers clearly have the upper hand. We believe this is a clear challenge for freight forwarders, who run the risk of being squeezed in this environment of rising rates.
Economic indicators still trending up Forwarding Looking Macro Economic Indicators 1 55 11 5 Index 45 9 35 7 3 Fb7 Feb-7 Aug-7 Fb8 Feb-8 Aug-8 Fb9 Feb-9 Aug-9 Eurozone PMI - LHS UK PMI - LHS German IFO (Expectations) - RHS
Country breakdown of survey Denmark Sweden V 46 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 45 67 58 59 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 75 63 Norway UK 58 63 53 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 63 57 41 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 77
Country breakdown of survey Germany Eastern Europe 67 59 44 5 Mar-9 Jun-9 Sep-9 Dec-9 Mar-1 68 5 3 33 Mar-9 Jun-9 Sep-9 Dec-9 Mar-1 Benelux Spain 67 68 83 ndex Value I 64 May-9 Aug-9 Nov-9 Feb-1 67 In ndex Value 63 67 5 Nov-9 Dec-9 Jan-1 Feb-1 Mar-1
Country breakdown of survey Other Index Value 5 36 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 64 41
Segment breakdown of survey Road Seafreight Index Value 46 53 62 49 Index Value 59 55 52 74 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Airfreight 69 68 47 29 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1
How the survey is conducted Our respondents have answered these two questions: What volume of goods does your company handle today compared with two months ago (adjusted for normal seasonality in the business)? Lower volume Unchanged volume Higher volume How do you expect volumes of goods to develop over the next two months (adjusted for normal seasonality in the business)? Lower volume Unchanged volume Higher volume Their answers have been translated into an index value that can vary between and with values above 5 indicating expansion among participating companies.
Segment breakdown for participants Other 18% Airfreight 12% Road 38% Seafreight 32%
Country breakdown for participants UK 15% Benelux 7% Sweden 9% Denmark % Spain 5% Other 11% Norw ay 8% Eastern Europe 14% Germany 11%
Number of participants Numb ber of Particip pants 17 15 13 11 9 87 135 123 129 123 128 152 148 1 139 152 7 Jan-9 Mar-9 May-9 Jul-9 Sep-9 Nov-9 Jan-1