+ Indonesia Study: Assessing Indonesia Global Commitment in Reducing GHG from Transport Sector Prof. Danang Parikesit Tokyo- 2014
ITPS CAA MTI
+ Outline Indonesia global commitment in reducing GHG emission from transport sector Indonesia Transport Challenges: Paradox of high economic growth Study LPA: simulating national policy and visioning the future Future policy change: fundamental shift to more stringent policy with consistent practice ITPS CAA - MTI
+ Indonesia global commitment in reducing GHG emission from transport sector Unilateral reducing GHG emission 26% from BAU scenario by 2020 or 41% with international support Presidential Decree No 61 Year 2011 on National Action Plan on GHG Emission Reduction (RAN GRK) Transport Ministerial Regulation No 201 Year 2013 on National Action Plan on GHG Emission Reduction in Transport Sector employing AVOID SHIFT IMPROVE approach Recently received USD 14 Million international support from German and UK ITPS CAA - MTI
+ Indonesia Transport Challenges: Paradox of High Economic Growth Rapid motorization and vehicle ownership Diminishing share of public transport Urbanization coexist with inefficiency High consumption of energy and fuel subsidy ITPS CAA - MTI
+ Rapid Motorization and Vehicle Ownership Shift from motorcycle to car due to increasing income Growth of Vehicle number 2000-2011 Motor Vehicle Ownership 2000-2011 90 000 000 80 000 000 70 000 000 60 000 000 50 000 000 40 000 000 30 000 000 20 000 000 10 000 000 0 Passenger car Bus Truck Motorcycle 300 250 200 150 100 50 - Bus Truck Passenger car Motorcycle Future Trend??? Source: Indonesian Central Statistic Agency, 2013
+ Diminishing Public Transport Share Dilapidating Public transport share and stigmatized as mode just for poor Change of Mode Share Jabodetabek 2002-2010 Mode Share by Income 2010 Sourse: JUTPI, 2010 Sourse: JAPTrapis 2011
+ Coexistence of Urbanization and Urban Inefficiency Urban and Rural Population Trend in Indonesia City Km/h City Km/h Bandung 14.3 Surabaya 21 Bogor 15.32 Medan 23.4 Depok 21.4 Makassar 24.06 Bekasi 21.86 Semarang 27 Tangerang 22 Palembang 28.54 Bodetabek 20.12 Metro City 24.8 ITPS CAA - MTI
+ High consumption of energy and fuel subsidy Fuel Consumption by Sector, 2011 Subsidized Fuel Consumption by Sector 2010 38% 95.54 % Industry Household Other Source: MEMR, 2012 Transportation Comercial Land Transport Water Transport SME Fishery Source:: Reforminer, 2010 ITPS CAA MTI 2014
+ Study LPA simulating national action plan and visioning future policy Development Policy: RPJMN, MP3E Mitigation Action Plan: RAN/RAD GRK Visioning future policy ITPS CAA - MTI
+ Possible Impact of RPJMN 2010-2014 Policies Possible effects 1 Economic growth 6.3 6.8% p.a - Increase of transport demand and activity 2 Development of urban public services infrastructure. - Increase urbanization, mobility demand, efficiency, and reduce urban transport pollution 3 Development of 19,370 km of road, inter-mode and inter-island infrastructure 4 Enhancement transportation system and network in Jakarta, Bandung, Surabaya, and Medan 5 Implementation of National Multimode Transportation System - Increase connectivity, demand for based transportation, inter-island people and goods transportation, and sea transport - More efficient urban transport system - Increase in urban mobility - Increase of transport efficiency - Reduce transport fuel consumption 6 Urban electric railway transportation - Increase in urban public transport trips development - More efficient commuting trips 7 Energy savings and alternative fuel - Demand for energy efficiency vehicle - Decrease oil fuel consumption and increase alternative fuel utilization
+ Possible impact of MP3EI 2010-2050 No Policies Possible effects 1 Promoting road infrastructure - Increase private vehicle population and construction demand, and increase road based freight 2 Revitalization of passenger and freight sea and river based transportation 3 Increasing and betterment of air transportation - Increase demand and volume of water based transportation - Increase air transportation demand and volume 4 Development of rail transportation - Increase rail based demand and volume 5 Reduction of cost for logistic system - Increase freight transport integration and efficiency ITPS CAA MTI 2014
+ Possible Impact of RAN/RAD GRK No Policies Effects 1 Development and implementation of ITS - Better travel plan and fuel efficiency, 2 Traffic Impact Control - Reduce congestion and emission 3 Congestion Charging and Road Pricing - Reduce private car usage, congestion, and fuel consumption 4 Revitalization of public transport system - Increase of public transport share and reduce private vehicle travel 5 Development of BRT system - Increase mode share of BRT, and fuel efficiency 6 Development of NMT - Better NMT share and fuel efficiency 7 Electrification of railway system - Increase rail passenger and shift from private vehicle 8 Emission standardization, labeling and emission based tax and - Reduce fuel consumption and emission 9 CNG converter kits - Reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emission 10 Eco driving and speed limitation - Reduce fuel consumption and vehicle emission ITPS CAA MTI 2014
+ Improved RAN GRK Scenario Business as Usual - BAU Respecting current policy taken by the government Predicting impact of current development and economic policy: RPJMN, MP3EI Elaborate scenario for current policies Considering dynamic in policy implementation Improve RAN GRK Additional policy beyond RAN GRK Introduction of more AVOID policy options Advance vehicle technology Fuel pricing and alternative fuels Road pricing and behavioral change ITPS CAA MTI 2014
+ TESTING OF SCENARIO TOTAL EMISSION (Ton eco2/per year) Business as Usual 16% by 2025 RAN GRK Improved RAN GRK CO- BENEFITS ITPS CAA MTI 2014
TTW CO2/capita (tco2/yr/person) A->S TTW CO2/capita (tco2/yr/person) A->S + Per capita emission 0.80 FreightShip 0.80 FreightShip 0.70 FreightAir FreightRail 0.70 FreightAir FreightRail 0.60 Trailer 0.60 Trailar Truck Truck 0.50 PassShip 0.50 PassShip 0.40 PassAir LRT 0.40 PassAir LRT 0.30 PassRail 0.30 PassRail 2W/3W 2W/3W 0.20 BRT 0.20 BRT 0.10 Bus SUV 0.10 Bus SUV 0.00 LV 0.00 LV Car Car
TTW CO2 (million kgco2/yr) A->S TTW CO2 (million kgco2/yr) A->S + Total emission 240000 FreightShip 240000 FreightShip 220000 FreightAir 220000 FreightAir 200000 FreightRail 200000 FreightRail 180000 Trailer 180000 Trailer 160000 Truck 160000 Truck 140000 120000 100000 PassShip PassAir LRT PassRail 140000 120000 100000 PassShip PassAir LRT PassRail 80000 2W/3W 80000 2W/3W 60000 BRT 60000 BRT 40000 Bus 40000 Bus 20000 SUV 20000 SUV 0 LV 0 LV Car Car
+ Co Benefit from policy improvement Transport policies devised GHG mitigation, transport efficiency, system competitiveness and energy consumption. Policy improvement will create co-benefit in energy consumption (61% reduction) congestion relieve (35%). Transport competitiveness, energy efficiency and GHG emission reduction will help Indonesia to achieve global commitment as well as improving the economic and local environmental condition ITPS CAA - MTI
+ Visioning Future Policy Significant improvement is needed to achieve national commitment and meet global target Introduction of various avoid policies: promotion of TOD, higher fuel pricing, Shift to more advance vehicle technology and cleaner fuel options Push policy for transport behavioral changes: set the right price for fuel, and road pricing. Capacity building to manage and safe guard consistent policy implementation ITPS CAA - MTI
+ Combination of transport competitiveness, energy efficiency and GHG emission reduction will help the Indonesian government in achieving global climate change commitment as well as improving the economic and local environmental condition ITPS CAA - MTI