THE FUTURE OF THE OCEAN ECONOMY: EXPLORING THE PROSPECTS FOR EMERGING OCEAN INDUSTRIES TO 2030 AN /IFP FORESIGHT PROJECT Workshop on Global Value Chains in Shipbuilding, 27 November 2013 1 The global context to 2030/50 2 1
Population Growth Global population density World population to rise from 7 billion today to 9 billion by 2050. Average population density in coastal zones is three times higher than the world average, and in recent decades the overall growth of coastal populations has outstripped that of inland populations. Today, about one in every three people on the planet lives within 100 kilometers of the sea. India 13% The engine of world growth will shift from China to India and slow 2012: 3.6% non- 11% China 46% United States 12% Japan 1% Euro area 4% 13% India 22% Source: Economic Outlook 93 long-term database. Growth of world GDP and contribution of the main regions non- 12% 2030: 3.2% United States 11% China 33% Japan 2% Euro area 7% 13% India 38% non- 12% 2060:1.6% United States 14% China 14% Japan 2% Euro area 8% 12% 2
Rising energy demand to 2035 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 5 Energy demand to 2035 by region Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 6 3
Long-term scenarios for world trade Level of global trade volume according to different assumption on trade intensity (100= current level) 900 800 700 600 World trade growth=world GDP growth*1.7 World trade growth=world GDP growth*1.3 World trade growth=world GDP growth World trade history 500 400 300 200 100 0 The volume of world trade would have doubled by Future developments in the ocean economy Trends in ocean-related sectors: a forward look at energy and mineral resources, food supplies, maritime tourism, maritime surveillance, monitoring and control. 8 4
Offshore oil deepwater production to rise from 4.8 mb/d in 2011 to 8.7 mb/d by 2035 formidable S&T challenges (in exploration, extraction, environmental security) but huge potential rewards 9 Interregional trade in crude oil 2035 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 10 5
Offshore wind capacity to 2035 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 11 Deep-sea mining Source: Joyce & Soule Prices of metals such as copper, zinc, gold and silver have hit all time highs over the past few years. With the global demand for minerals rapidly increasing, mining of mineral deposits at deep-sea vents appears to be becoming a prime target of commercial marine mining interests with lucrative prospects for the future. 12 6
Marine aquaculture further significant S&T advances required to sustain production growth (new species, development of openocean techniques, reduction of environmental impact, etc.) 13 New sea routes and natural resource opportunities opening up in the Arctic Source: Chatham House The environmental change in the Arctic has sparked new global interests in Arctic energy, fishing, shipping and tourism. 14 7
Implications of the development of emerging ocean industries to 2030 on a business-asusual basis Growth in demand for ocean services and new market opportunities Increased need for maritime monitoring, surveillance and control Scientific research, mapping etc. Increasing specialisation/diversification in shipbuilding and offshore structures Increasing demand for servicing of offshore activities New opportunities for multi-purpose platforms Changing dynamics of regional and global supply chains and networks Important impacts on more traditional ocean activities such as shipping, capture fisheries, tourism 15 Uncertainties New energy sources shale gas, tight oil, biofuels (high-growth algae), methane hydrates Disruptive technologies (e.g. robotisation, automatised ships/platforms ) Geopolitical shifts Prolonged slow growth worldwide Opening of Arctic routes sooner and faster than expected Offshore environmental disasters 16 8
The Future of the Ocean Economy The Project in a Nutshell playing its part in addressing many of the grand challenges facing the world in the coming decades, challenges such as supporting economic growth, feeding extra 2bn people, combating poverty, mitigating the effects of climate change, managing natural resources sustainably, finding renewable sources of energy, the ocean is indispensable in addressing these future challenges But growing the ocean economy needs to be done in a responsible way because oceans /marine eco-systems already under stress Forward look (to 2030) at the development of the ocean economy and its traditional and emerging sectors: shipping, shipbuilding, fisheries, traditional ocean and coastal tourism, ports, as well as off-shore wind, deep/ultra-deep oil & gas exploration and extraction, ocean energy, marine bio, aquaculture, sea-bed mining, ocean monitoring, ocean tourism) Focus on: ocean sectors contributions as potential sources of economic growth & employment creation; likely impacts on marine eco-systems and sustainability; future implications for managing ocean activities. 17 Work on the Project Start date: end-october 2013 Finishing date: mid-2015 Cross- collaboration fisheries, shipbuilding, biotechnology, energy, tourism, environment 18 9
Thank you Barrie.Stevens@oecd.org www.oecd.org/sti/futures 19 10