Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke Strategic Topic 1 of the GJETC study program: Energy transition as a central building block of a future industrial policy Comparison and long-term energy transition scenarios Based on presentations of I. Kutani(IEEJ), E. R. Weber (BEARS), K. Nomura, GJETC-meeting at 9/4/2017 Impulse presentation at the GJETC Outreach Event on the subject: German- Japanese Cooperation on the Energy Transition Strategic Insights of the German-Japanese Energy Transition Council GJETC, 16 th February 2018, Berlin
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Structure of the GJETC Renowned energy experts from Japan and Germany METI JAPAN CHAIR: Masakazu Toyoda Organization Office & Scientific Secretariat: IEEJ Financing Management Full Member Experts GERMANY DBU + Mercator + Others CHAIR: Prof. Peter Hennicke Organization/Consulting: ECOS Consult Scientific Secretariat: Wuppertal Institute Jun Arima Yasumasa Fujii Claudia Kemfert Patrick Graichen Toshiharu Ikaga Koji Nomura Felix C. Matthes Miranda Schreurs Junichi Ogasawara TomihiroTaniguchi Stefan Thomas Eicke Weber Associated Members Mami Ito Hiroshi Okamoto Shinichi Sasayama Uwe Leprich Manfred Rauschen Franzjosef Schafhausen 16.02.2018 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 3
Study Program of the GJETC 4 comprehensive German-Japanese studies (total of 800 pages) 10 Input papers, Topical papers Recommendations report (2018) Japan Inventory Transformation Analysis National Recommendations Germany Inventory Transformation Analysis National Recommendations Comparative Analysis Lessons Learned Transferability Dissemination 16.02.2018 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 4
Consortium Organized by: Financed by: Supported by: Media Partner: 16.02.2018 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 5
Mutual learning and problems to be solved Japan`s energy challenges: Minimize the risk of Earthquakes and Tsunamies (resilience) Reduce energy prices and emissions of CO 2 Guarantee reliability of supply Reduce dependence on imports Competitiveness in a global context Cost reduction of renewable energies + Efficiency First Germany`s lessons to learn from Japan: Excellent (system) technologies e.g. in the areas of electromobility, rail transport/public transport, batteries, information and communication technologies, fuel cells, hydrogen economy and impressive energy-saving campaign ( Setsuden ) 16.02.2018 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 6
Absolute (G) and relative (J) Decoupling of primary energy, GDP and GHG emissions 16.02.2018 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 7
Japan surpassed Germany at the global lead market for solar PV 16.02.2018 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 8
-...but Japan could play a much greater role at the global lead market for wind power 16.02.2018 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 9
Japan: New electricity providers (PPS) often big players by sales volumes in the household segment (Apr.-Nov. 2016) Sales volume Share under PPS Sector / Category Tokyo Gas 1.057.522 MWh 31,8% Gas Osaka Gas 441.092 MWh 13,3% Gas KDDI 299.796 MWh 9,0% Mobile communication JX Energy 271.114 MWh 8,2% Oil Saisan 101.485 MWh 3,1% Gas Tokyu Power Supply 89.090 MWh 2,7% Railway company K-opticom 72.872 MWh 2,2% Subsidiary company of Kansai EPCO J:COM West 71.515 MWh 2,2% Cable television Tonen General Sekiyu 55.697 MWh 1,7% Oil SB Power (Softbank) 50.139 MWh 1,5% Mobile communication Restliche Stromanbieter 812.680 MWh ~24,5% - After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, nearly 800 PPS companies filed documentation required by law, but only 135 have actually supplied any electricity, and they held only about 9 percent of the market share at the end of fiscal 2015 (i.e., March 31, 2016). Source: Japan For Sustainability, No. 171, Nov. 2016); PPS = Power producer and supplier Source: Eigene Darstellung von Robin Goeßmann; Die Liberalisierung des japanischen Strommarktes nach dem Atomunfall von Fukushima/ Hintergründe, Auswirkungen/ Rahmenbedingungen; Masterarbeit 2017; Daten entnommen aus: METI (2017b: Internet) 16.02.2018 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 10
The challenges for Japanese energy policy decrease import dependensy, energy costs and C02-emissions Source: Oba, Mayu, Energy conservtion Policy in Japan, METI/Tokyo 2015 16.02.2018 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 11
Common and different goals of the Japanese and German Energy Policy A keycontroversy: IsJapan an energypoororan energyrichcountry? 16.02.2018 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 12
Different szenario methodologies reflecting different policies 16.02.2018 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 13
Innovative dialogue style of research encourage mutual comments to get better peer reviewed results 16.02.2018 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 14
Different status/expectations of electricity costs J: one main reason for different electricity mix 2030 16.02.2018 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 15
Unsubsidized clean energy world records 2017 a new world record for PV: 1.79 cts/kwh in Saudi Arabia! Solar PV Onshore wind Offshore wind Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Price: United Arab Emirates Marubeni and Jinko Solar 2017 2019 US$ 2.42 c/kwh Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Price: Morocco Enel Green Power 2016 2018 US$ 3.0 c/kwh Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Price: Germany DONG/EnBW 2016 2024 US$ 4.9 c/kwh Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; Images Siemens; Wikimedia Commons; Masdar 16.02.2018 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 16
Cost degression of PV systems ->driven by Japanese, German and Chinese market shares Source: Matthes 2018 16.02.2018 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 17
Energy Efficiency First? Expectations of efficiency increase in J lower than in G 16.02.2018 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 18
Electricity mix and total generation in 2030 low efficiency increase nuclear instead of renewables? 16.02.2018 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 19
Energy-related GHG-Emissions/cap (2010-2030) too high for full decarbonization in 2050 16.02.2018 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 20
Common policy recommendations 16.02.2018 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 21
Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke Thank you for your attention! 16.02.2018 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 22