Water Scarcity and Agriculture Risk Analysis and Policy Measures Klaus Wagner, Julia Neuwirth, Hubert Janetschek Federal Institute of Agricultural Economics Marxergasse 2, 1030 Vienna klaus.wagner@awi.bmlfuw.gv.at www.awi.bmlfuw.gv.at K. Wagner, 1
Federal Institute of Agricultural Economics, Vienna: Research Institute of the Austrian Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management Staff: 14 scientists Departments: Agricultural Policy, Regional Research, Agricultural Sociology, Business Economics Market and Food Economics Methodology Library Scope: National and international projects for the ministry and also other institutions, more on www.awi.bmlfuw.gv.at K. Wagner, 2
Content 1. Impacts of climate change on agriculture 2. Agricultural risk evaluation in pilot regions 3.Agricultural policy measures and its influence on water quantity 4.Agricultural options for adaptation / mitigation of water scarcity K. Wagner, 3
Objectives Agriculture Water Scarcity Climate Change Risks for agriculture currently and in future concerning water scarcity Adapted land use in view of future water scarcity and strategies/options to achieve this K. Wagner, 4
1 Impacts of climate change on agriculture Agriculture Soil LAND N Nd Ns T E I SI Climate Overall precipitation throughfall precipitation stem flow transpiration evaporation canopy interception percolation Examples: Heat stress Infestation by pests Vegetation period Degradation of land Availability of nutrients Quantity and quality of crops Abo surface inflow & outflow K. Wagner, 5 Abu subsurface inflow & outflow
2 Risk Evaluation Alp-Water-Scarce Final Conference 20 22 September 2011 Development of indicators: Water consumption of agriculture Plant cultivation (5 classes, crop coefficient FAO) Animal husbandry (3 classes, guidelines for livestock water consumption) Irrigation (share of irrigable area) Soil Capacity of available water (3 classes) Climate Aridity index (3 classes, relation of temperature and precipitation) K. Wagner, 6
2.1 Current Situation Agricultural Risk Analysis for Water Scarcity Pilot regions - overview Alp-Water-Scarce Final Conference 20 22 September 2011 Type of Agricultural Area Arable land % Grassland intensive % Grassland low input % Orchard % Vineyard % XXX Agricultural area in ha Austria Steirisches Randgebirge 30.247 France Switzerland Sandey 648 Noce 40.380 Piave 236.570 Steirisches Becken Lower Gurktal 161.079 Koralpe Steiermark Kärnten gesamt 17.331 15.242 235.542 Koralpe Kärnten 22.846 Jauntal Karawanken 12.148 7.583 Slovenia Julian Alps 37.907 Dravsko-Ptujsko 52.433 Tarentaise 25.156 Arly 1.771 Risk Classification Land Use National borderline K. Wagner, 7 Scrivia 1.002 Alp Water Scarce Project Federal Institute of Agricultural Economics Vienna Klaus Wagner 2009 12 Source: own calculations, national statistic data Italy Weighted risk points 500 400 300 200 100 0 Steir. Randgebirge Kärnten gesamt* Koralpe Kärnten Koralpe Steiermark Karawanken Jauntal Lower Gurktal Steir. Becken Tarentaise Arly* Dravsko-Ptujsko* Pilot region Scrivia* Julian Alps* Noce Spöl* Sandey* Piave
2.1 Current Situation Agricultural Risk Analysis for Water Scarcity Pilot regions - overview Alp-Water-Scarce Final Conference 20 22 September 2011 Type of Livestock Units Proportion Cattle % Pigs % Poultry % Sheep, Goats, Horses % Austria XXX Livestock units per ha Steirisches Randgebirge 1,5 France Arly 0,6 Switzerland Sandey 1,0 Noce 0,5 Piave 0,7 Steirisches Becken Lower Gurktal 1,1 Kärnten gesamt 0,9 Koralpe Steiermark 0,9 1,1 Koralpe Kärnten 1,3 Jauntal Karawanken 0,8 0,9 Slovenia Julian Alps 0,3 Dravsko-Ptujsko 1,3 Tarentaise 0,5 Italy Risk Classification Livestock National borderline K. Wagner, 8 Scrivia 0,0 Alp Water Scarce Project Federal Institute of Agricultural Economics Vienna Klaus Wagner 2009 12 Source: own calculations, national statistic data Weighted risk points 300 200 100 0 Steir. Randgebirge Kärnten gesamt* Koralpe Kärnten Koralpe Steiermark Karawanken Jauntal Lower Gurktal Steir. Becken Tarentaise Arly* Dravsko-Ptujsko* Pilot region Scrivia* Julian Alps Noce Spöl* Sandey* Piave
2.1 Current Situation Agricultural Risk Analysis for Water Scarcity Soil-Risk Classes Alp-Water-Scarce Final Conference 20 22 September 2011 Risk Classes Proportion Lo w risk % Lo w - med ium risk % Medium risk % Medium - high risk % High risk % Austria Steirisches Randgebirge France Switzerland Lower Gurktal Kärnten gesamt Jauntal Steirisches Becken Koralpe Steiermark Koralpe Kärnten Sandey Noce Piave Karawanken Julian Alps Dravsko-Ptujsko Slovenia Arly Tarentaise National borderline K. Wagner, 9 Scrivia Alp Water Scarce Project Federal Institute of Agricultural Economics Vienna Klaus Wagner 2009 12 Source: own calculations, national statistic data Italy Weighted risk points 500 400 300 200 100 0 Steir. Randgebirge Kärnten gesamt* Koralpe Kärnten Koralpe Steiermark Karawanken Jauntal Risk Classification Soil Lower Gurktal Steir. Becken Tarentaise Arly* Dravsko-Ptujsko* Pilot region Scrivia* Julian Alps Noce Spöl* Sandey* Piave
2.1 Current Situation Agricultural Risk Analysis for Water Scarcity Pilot regions - overview Alp-Water-Scarce Final Conference 20 22 September 2011 Climate, monthly avg. of last 10 available years Temperature Precip itation Austria Steirisches Randgebirge France Switzerland Lower Gurktal Koralpe Steierm ark Steirisches Becken Koralpe Kärnten Sandey Spöl Noce Piave Karawanken Jauntal Dravsko-Ptujsko Arly Slovenia Tarentaise Italy Risk Classification Aridity National borderline K. Wagner, 10 Scrivia Alp Water Scarce Project Federal Institute of Agricultural Economics Vienna Klaus Wagner 2009 12 Source: own calculations, national statistic data Aridity index (avg. year) 1,00 0,50 0,00 Steir. Randgebirge Kärnten gesamt* Koralpe Kärnten Koralpe Steiermark Karawanken Jauntal Lower Gurktal Ste ir. Becken Tarentaise Arly* Dravsko-Ptu jsko* Pilot region Scrivia* Julian Alps Noce Spö l* San dey* Piave
2.1 Current Situation Alp-Water-Scarce Final Conference 20 22 September 2011 Risk Classification Standardized 3 2 1 0-1 Steir. Randgebirge Kärnten gesamt * Koralpe Kärnten Koralpe Steiermark Karawanken Jaunt al Lower Gurktal St eir. Becken Tarentaise Arly* Dravsko-Pt ujsko* Scrivia* Julian Alps* Noce Spöl* Sandey* Piave -2 Standardized risk points -3 Pilot re gion Land use Livestock Soil Aridity Irrigation K. Wagner, 11
2.2 Future Situation (2050) Alp-Water-Scarce Final Conference 20 22 September 2011 Background of the agricultural development Agricultural outlook mostly short-, middle-term FAO, G20, EU, national, depending on: global food market energy market, demographic development, technical progress, policy measures / prices climate development K. Wagner, 12
2.2 Future Situation (2050) Alp-Water-Scarce Final Conference 20 22 September 2011 Development of agriculture In general: strong need for agricultural products, production has to increase by 70% (in development countries by 100%) Liberalisation -specialisation scenario:growing market pressure, depending on policy interventions different regional concerns: lower production in disadvantaged, marginal regions, higher, more intensive production in advantaged regions Conservative scenario:more policy intervention: keeping production in disadvantaged regions (environmental, regional economy concerns), environmental concerns in intensively used regions, development more balanced K. Wagner, 13
2.2 Future Situation (2050) Alp-Water-Scarce Final Conference 20 22 September 2011 Agricultural Risk Analysis for Water Scarcity Climate Risk Seasonal aridity index (3T/P) dif f erence of scenario 1 to current situation Aridity index difference winter Aridity index difference spring Aridity index difference summer Aridity index difference autumn XXX Aridity index, difference avg. year Austria Steirisches Randgebirge 0,173 Switzerland Koralpe Steiermark Steirisches Becken 0,107 0,201 France Spöl Sandey 0,139 0,056 Noce 0,181 Piave 0,145 Lower Gurktal 0,143 Karawanken 0,072 Koralpe Kärnten 0,152 Jauntal 0,122 Dravsko-Ptujsko 0,182 Arly 0,078 Slovenia Tarentaise 0,070 Italy Scrivia 0,497 National borderline Alp Water Scarce Project Federal Institute of Agricultural Economics Vienna Klaus Wagner 2009 12 Source: own calculations, national statistic data K. Wagner, 14
2.3 Future Risk Patterns Agriculture Alp-Water-Scarce Final Conference 20 22 September 2011 K. Wagner, 15
3 Agricultural policy measures and its influence on water consumption Measure category Effects related to water scarcity Type Tendency Austria France Italy Slovenia Switzer -land Decoupled direct payments Coupled direct payments Indirect Positive X X X X X Direct Positive X X X X X Market regulation measures Direct / indirect Positive/ indifferent/ negative X X X X X Rural Development Competitiveness Direct Positive X - X X X Rural Development - Environment and Countryside Direct / indirect Positive / indifferent X X X X X Rural Development - Quality of Life and Diversification Indirect Indifferent X - X - X Leader Indirect Indifferent X X X X - Source: A: Lebensministerium 2010 a, F:, I. Sl: European Union, Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development, 2010; Information of Pilot region project partners, CH: Bundesamt für Landwirtschaft, 2010 K. Wagner, 16
Subsidies in pilot regions Percentage of subsidies with: Austria France Italy Slovenia Switzerland Indifferent effects 65 77 46 51 n.a. Effects of decreasing water consumption 35 23 54 49 n.a. Source: A: Lebensministerium 2010, F:, I. Sl: European Union, Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development 2010; Information of Pilot region project partners, CH: Bundesamt für Landwirtschaft 2010 3 Clusters: Italian regions: measures concerning water saving in force, highly dependent on irrigation, some regions with high aridity risk North-eastern regions: grassland farming, water intensive livestock, only a small share of subsidies dedicated to water saving measures South-eastern regions: relatively low aggregated risk of water scarcity, only special sectors concerned, small share of money in water saving measures K. Wagner, 17
4 Agricultural options for adaptation to / mitigation of water scarcity General: Land / stable management, soil cultivation Intensity / organic farming Varieties, species Products Farm management Water management Policy, administration K. Wagner, 18
4.1 Regional specific options, depending on risk patterns Short-term measuresin every case (positive environmental effects, indifferent economic effects) Adapted nutrient, weed, pest management Conservational tillage, mulch seeding, landscaping measures Adapted crop calendar, plant density, grazing / stable systems Efficient irrigation technology Risk management (insurance systems to minimise risk of crop losses for farmers, multiple risks, hail, frost, public support in some member states, special funds for flooding or droughts) K. Wagner, 19
4.2 Regional specific options, depending on risk patterns: Long-term measuresto change structures and systems (negative economic effects, indifferent effects on production, landscape, regional economy) change from intensively used grassland to low input systems (focus in SteirischesRandgebirge, Koralpe, Karawanken, Julian Alps, Noce, Tarentaise) Adapted crops (winter / spring, reduction of field forage crops, focus in SteirischesRandgebirge, Koralpe, Karawanken, Pohorske, Dravsko-PtujskoPolje, Scrivia) Reduction of livestock intensity, Change of livestock systems (focus in SteirischesRandgebirge, Koralpe, Jauntal, UnteresGurktal, Sterisches Becken, Noce, Pohorske, Dravsko-Ptujsko Polje) Extension of irrigation only under certain conditions. K. Wagner, 20
4.3 Economic effects: advantages, disadvantages for farm enterprises, examples for Austria: Land management, soil cultivation (additional expenditure for autumn mulch seed in planting: 109 /ha, saving of expenditure in case of direct seeding in winter planting: 31 /ha) Crop rotation (important in Austria: maize ear silage, change to maize whole plant silage which makes better use of winter humidity means 1,359.- /hadisadvantage for farmers per year) Irrigation (to reduce climate-induced yield variations, but most expensive investment in agriculture, also high operative costs, (400-1,900 /ha per year), paysonly in case of special products, high producer prices and really dry years, long term sustainability??) K. Wagner, 21
Agriculture: essential sector of an integrated water management system K. Wagner, 22