The Battle of Big versus Small Zenith Adspend Forecast 2017
The global ad market will continue to grow steadily +5,9 Year-on-year growth (%) +5,6 +5,6 +5,5 +4,0 +4,1 +4,2 +4,1 2017 2018 2019 2020 Adspend Nominal GDP Source: Zenith/IMF
Eastern Europe, Central Asia & Fast track Asia lead global growth Western & Central Europe includes UK, Germany, France Eastern Europe & Central Asia includes Russia, Turkey, Bulgaria North America USA, Canada +3.2% +3.0% -2.2% +8.9% +6.4% Japan +2.1% Global +4.1% Latin America includes Brazil, Argentina, Mexico +4.4% Middle East & North Africa includes Egypt, UAE, Saudi Arabia Advanced Asia includes Australia, South Korea, Hong Kong +3.1% Fast track Asia includes China, Indonesia, India Adspend CAGR 2017-2020 Source: Zenith
Growth is concentrated in the big markets Contribution of new ad dollars to global market 2017-2020 (%) 27 20 4 4 2 USA China Japan UK Germany Source: Zenith/IMF
The dynamics of big and small in today s media market Big cities are driving adspend growth Big platforms are driving growth in digital Big tech is increasing share of marketing spend What this means for brand building
The dynamics of big and small in today s media market Big cities are driving adspend growth Big platforms are driving growth in digital Big tech is increasing share of marketing spend What this means for brand building
Big cities are driving adspend growth 21,1 Total growth in adspend 2017 (US$bn) 60% OF TOTAL 12,7 12% OF TOTAL 2,6 Source: Zenith Global Top 725 cities Top 10 cities
New York London Los Angeles Total growth in adspend 2016-2019 (US$m) 1.469 1.346 1.026 563 888 817 London and Manila have weakened since our last forecast Jakarta Manila 430 793 839 848 Tokyo 770 1.044 Shanghai 624 735 Beijing 570 671 Dallas Houston 622 582 621 583 Source: Zenith Prediction made in 2016 2017
Total growth in adspend 2016-2019 (US$m) New York Tokyo 1.044 Jakarta 848 1.346 Chicago has entered our new top ten, while Manila drops out Los Angeles 817 Shanghai Houston Dallas Beijing London Chicago 624 583 582 570 563 560 Source: Zenith
Polarisation is also happening in the media landscape Big cities are driving adspend growth Big platforms are driving growth in digital Big tech is increasing share of marketing spend What this means for brand building
Average time spent with media worldwide 2017 (minutes) Mobile internet 100 Newspapers 11 Magazines 5 Television remains the largest media activity Desktop internet 40 Total time 7.6 hours vs 7.0 in 2012 Television 170 Outdoor 77 Cinema 1 Radio 52 Source: Zenith
Newspapers Magazines Television Radio Cinema Outdoor Desktop internet Mobile internet TOTAL But mobile internet use is gaining quickly, driving growth in overall consumption Media consumption CAGR (%) 2017 v 15 2019 v 17 6,5 6,1-0,3-1,6-1,8-1,1-1,0-1,7 20,7 10,5 1,3 0,8-9,2-8,0-6,5-6,2-12,2-12,8 Source: Zenith/IMF
Change in global adspend 2017-2020 (US$bn) Mobile internet 69,7 Television 5,1 Almost all adspend growth is coming from mobile internet advertising Outdoor Cinema Radio 2,9 1,7 0,9 Desktop internet Magazines Newspapers -2,4-4,6-6,7 Source: Zenith
US television budgets are shifting to internet display, social media and online video Change in US adspend 2017-2020 (US$bn) Mobile internet Outdoor 0,7 Cinema 0,1 29,7 Radio 0,0 Internet display +US$3.9bn Social media +US$7.0bn Online video +US$7.9bn Television Desktop internet Magazines Newspapers -2,1-2,2-2,9-3,7 Source: Zenith
Share of global internet adspend (%) Since 2014, five digital platforms have increased their share of internet adspend from 67% to 72% 2014 2016 47.2 9.1 44.3 15.0 6.2 5.8 3.5 4.4 1.1 2.4 Source: Zenith
Global adspend CAGR 2016-2019 (%) 28,2 23,9 19,719,6 17,8 18,3 Online video has strengthened, while programmatic is slowing as it reaches 80% of spend in key markets 12,7 13,3 10,6 10,0 9,0 7,2 TOTAL DISPLAY Programmatic Social media Online video PAID SEARCH 2016 2017 CLASSIFIED Source: Zenith Predictions made December 2016 and December 2017
Advertisers are investing well ahead of time spent on the internet Internet share of time spent with media and total adspend (%) 17,7 19,7 20,9 22,6 23,5 26,2 25,7 30,3 28,0 34,0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Time spent Total adspend Source: Zenith, Publicis Media Touchpoints ROI Tracker Global Norms
But brand experience has caught up as brands have used digital more effectively 17,7 Internet share of time spent with media, total adspend and Brand Experience (%) 34,0 30,3 30,5 28,0 26,2 25,7 22,6 23,5 19,7 20,9 22,1 20,7 19,0 35,0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Time spent Total adspend Brand Experience Source: Zenith, Publicis Media Touchpoints ROI Tracker Global Norms All rights to the MCA measurement system including CCF, BEP and BES are owned by Integration (Marketing and Communications) Limited and licensed to Publicis Media Limited and its affiliates
Digitisation is moving money away from advertising Big cities are driving adspend growth Big platforms are driving growth in digital Big tech is increasing share of marketing spend What this means for brand building
Growth in digital and owned brand experience 2008-2017 42,9 33,4 30,9 Brand experience is moving to online and owned touchpoints 21,0 13,3 16,2 12,0 10,0 Alcohol Automotive Beauty Finance Food & drink Retail Telecoms Travel Source: Zenith All rights to the MCA measurement system including CCF, BEP and BES are owned by Integration (Marketing and Communications) Limited and licensed to Publicis Media Limited and its affiliates
Marketer s ad tech budgets have risen well ahead of digital adspend Growth in ad tech sales* and internet adspend 2010-2016 (%) 931 176 Ad tech Internet adspend *Sales of 14 listed ad tech companies Source: Zenith, Annual reports
The dynamics of big and small in today s marketing world Big cities are driving adspend growth Big platforms are driving growth in digital Big tech is increasing share of marketing spend What this means for brand building
The battle of the big and small brand models Big brands losing share Big brands add sales New & small brands growing Share not key Influencer, social & retail model Digital ROI unproven Subscription media Reach is still key
Food & drink Finance* Pharma Automotive Luxury CPG Retail* Telecoms* 100 = strong growth 50 = no growth Survey conducted in 2016 2017 77 75 75 67 68 66 65 65 65 58 56 56 56 50 50 50 Brands are feeling the pressure from transformation as confidence drops 10 points 0 = strong decline Source: Zenith *Small sample Average confidence in 2016: 67 Average confidence in 2017: 57
Summary Steady growth in adspend Growth polarising to big markets, big cities, big players Transformation sees marketing spend go to big tech The battle of the big-brand and small-brand models Advertisers feel the pressure from urgency of transformation Vittorio.Bonori@zenithmedia.com