Central Asia. Energy-Water Development Program. Working Regionally for National Shared Prosperity

Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program Working Regionally for National Shared Prosperity

Development Aspirations of Central Asia The Benefits of Smart Management of Natural Resources 2 Central Asia is a dynamic and geographically diverse region enjoying steady economic growth and new development opportunities. A key element in the continued growth, prosperity, stability, and well-being of the population is the smart management of the region s energy and water resources. Although Central Asia is increasingly globalized, national aspirations, such as food security and reliable energy services, still drive development decisions. The competition for energy markets and the anticipated scarcity of water resources have strained relations among the countries of the region. Climate change and population growth have the potential to strain resources and relations further. The Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program (CAEWDP) recognizes that strengthened cooperation at the national and regional levels can lead to increased incomes, poverty reduction, sustainable development, shared prosperity, and political stability across the region. Central Asia is endowed with water and an abundance of rich and varied energy resources hydropower, oil, gas, and coal. These resources can support increased agricultural production and have the potential to exceed domestic energy demand to supply export markets. However, water and energy resources across the region are highly unbalanced and access to them is uneven. In some cases there is a lack of physical infrastructure and the outdated systems that exist are unreliable and inefficient. Some communities cannot meet citizens electricity needs during certain times of the year, while others lack adequate water supply. Working at the national and regional levels to manage water and energy resources can bring: Reliable energy supply and reduced winter energy shortages Higher earnings generated by exporting and trading energy Greater agricultural productivity through more reliable access to water Improved water quality and reduced land degradation Better adaptation to climate change and water/hydrological variability Cost-effective infrastructure development Enhanced environment for international and private investment for both water and energy Change of Water Availability in Central Asia 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 5.9 thousand m 3 /capita/year 8.4 4.2 2.55 Categories of water availability >1.7 significant 1.0-1.7 not significant <1.0 shortage Central Asia Europe 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 years Over the past 40 years, water supply in Central Asia declined from 8.4 th. m3/person/year to 2.5 th. m 3 /person/year. By 2030, at the current rate of population growth in Central Asia, this reduction will reach a critical value of less than 1.7 th. m 3 /year. And it is still necessary to annually provide an additional 500-700 million m3 of water to sustain the population of Central Asia even at very low levels of consumption. Source: EC IFAS Total Fossil Fuel MTOE Coal MTOE Crude Oil MTOE Gas MTOE Hydro MTOE MTOE=million tons of oil equivalent UZBEKISTAN 4,589 2,851 80 1,657 32 TURKMENISTAN 2,698 82 68 2,549 4 AFGHANISTAN KAZAKHSTAN 4,080 2,549 58 TAJIKISTAN 514 507 2 5 412 16,000 22,629 KYRGYZ REPUBLIC 590 5 580 5 266 CHINA Source: Energy Supply/Demand balances and Infrastructure Constraints in Central Asia. Asian Development Bank. 2009 3

Water Melting snow from the high peaks of the Himalayan water tower and precipitation provide the seasonal flows to the two major rivers that feed the Aral Sea Basin: the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya. The origins of the Syr Darya are the snow-covered slopes of the Tien Shan Mountains in Kyrgyz Republic. The Amu Darya originates from the glaciated northern slopes of the Hindu Kush and from Wakhan in the Pamir Highlands in Afghanistan and the Pamirs in Tajikistan. Water Resources in Central Asia Water is a vital but disparate resource across the basin. In the summer, both the Syr Darya and the Amu Darya rivers have the potential to provide abundant low-carbon hydropower for the mountainous Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan. Downstream, these rivers are vital arteries for livelihoods providing water for agriculture and local fisheries, and sustaining environmental ecosystems, human health, and electricity generation across Central Asia. However, the water sector faces many challenges: 50 percent of irrigated lands are affected by salinization and waterlogging as a result of poor irrigation and drainage systems. In Turkmenistan that number is 96 percent, compromising both agricultural productivity and water quality. Improvements to Increase Efficiency National governments are struggling to rehabilitate aging irrigation and drainage infrastructure and implement innovative irrigation technologies to address these problems and improve food security and resilience to hydrologic variability. Looking ahead, population growth and the need for increased agricultural production will continue to strain the region s water resources, making smart water management both nationally and regionally a key factor for the livelihoods of farmers and agriculture. Across Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, over 10 million hectares of agricultural land depend on these waters for irrigation, where agriculture on average contributes 11 percent to these economies GDP. Proposed improvements in irrigation efficiency could begin to alleviate the problem. For example, in Uzbekistan, a 1 percent increase in water pumping efficiency would result in savings of $10 million per year; and a 10 percent increase in water pumping efficiency would result in regional savings of $188 million per year. 4 Photo to the left and cover Daniel Korzhonov, Moscow, Russia. 5

WATER RESOURCES OF THE ARAL SEA BASIN Kazakhstan 16.8 $9,780 $203.5 86% 2,699 Southern Aral Sea seasonal lake A r a l K u m Aralsk Northern Aral Sea 5 (38) Lake Balkhash K A Z A K H S T A N Ili Kyrgyz Republic Tajikistan Turkmenistan 5.6 $990 $6.5 82% 192 8 $880 $7.6 64% 140 5.2 $5,410 $35.2 54% 470 Golden Age Lake (under construction) Sarygamysh Lake Muynak Dashoguz 6.5 Horezm 4.4 (UZB) Dashoguz Collector (under construction) T U R K M E N I S T A N Ashgabat Karakalpakstan 7.9 Planned collector Lebap 3.9 Great Turkmen Collector (under construction) 0.9 1.5 U Z B E K I S T A N Karakum Canal 11 UZB 5.3 Aydar Lake KAZ 10 UZB 10 Amu-Bukhara 5.2 Kashkadarya 5.3 Kafarnigan 0.3 TJK 6.6 1.2 Dushanbe Surhandarya Karshi 4.19 UZB 0.6 1.5 Sherabad 1.4 Amu Darya 0.2 Syr Darya (37) Zarafshan 4 0.5 5.6 1 Tashkent 9 Chirchik- Charvak TJK 2 1 20.2 Panj Ahangaran UZB 10 2 KYR 0.1 Vakhsh T A J I K I S T A N 15 KYR 3 4 Kara Darya Rivers of Ferghana Valley: 8 Bishkek Ysik-Kol K Y R G Y Z R E P. Naryn C H I N A Uzbekistan Source: World Bank 2012 29.8 $1,720 $51.1 81% 425 0 I.R. OF IRAN 250 Zoï Environment Network 500 750 1000 km Tejen Murgab Hari Rud Prospective expansion of irrigation Kunduz 33.3 Kokcha Rivers of Northern Afghanistan: 6.1 A F G H A N I S T A N Kabul Average river flow and water intake by canals (km 3 /year) Mountain regions above 2000 metres Irrigated lands 70 Water discharge 30 (km 3 /year) 10 5 6 7 Source: water flow and water use data www.cawater-info.net

Energy Updating Infrastructure to Meet Needs Central Asia is rich with diverse energy resources. In the downstream countries of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan there are significant reserves of oil, gas, and coal. The upstream countries, Tajikistan and Kyrgyz Republic, are rich in undeveloped hydropower needs on a seasonal basis in the most cost-effective and environmentally friendly manner taking maximum advantage of abundant low-cost hydropower in the summer, and having the reliability of thermal resources in winter when the cold climate limits hydro- Current energy systems are becoming less reliable as the Central Asia power system deteriorates. The region is trading 90 percent less energy than in the early 1990s. Although new transmission lines linking north and south in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan improve the The challenges are to maintain and rehabilitate infrastructure, provide new generation infrastructure for energy-hungry, growing economies, and explore new models for energy trade both within and outside the five-country community. potential. The diversity of such a mixed energy system power supplies. distribution situation, these plentiful resources do not offers an opportunity to meet all countries electricity meet domestic needs and 2 million households across the region are affected by winter heat and power shortages per year. www.energia.gr RICHARD FUGGLE 8 9

CENTRAL ASIA ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE More effective energy and water management, including at the regional level, could accelerate investment, promote economic growth and stable livelihoods and improve environmental quality: In one Central Asian country, comprehensive energy efficiency measures could reduce energy costs by $12.3 billion by 2030, avoiding investments in new generating plants and reducing fuel consumption. $2 billion savings are available over 3 years from restoring energy trade within Central Asia and added environmental benefits in reduced greenhouse gas emissions. $200 million per year in new revenues from energy exports to South Asia from the initial phases of the CASA 1000 project. Source: World Bank 2014 80 E 65 E Torgai Kustanaiskaya Sokol RUSSIAN FED. Aksu Es Pavlodar Esil Ekibastuzskaya Zhitikara (Lisakovskaya) Astana Astana RUSSIAN FED. Nura Vostochnaya 50 N 50 N Agadyr Zhezkazgan Zhezkazganskaya Tets KAZAKHSTAN Lake Balkhash 10 11 Yukgres Balkhash 1320 MW (ADB, EBRD, IFC, Korea Exim Bank) Aiteke-bi (Novokazalinsk) 45 N 45 N Balkhash 2640 MW Kzyl-Orda Kerbulakskaya Syr Almaty Shu Alma Darya KOKSARAI RESERVOIR Max. Volume 5 Bil. cubic meters Kemin Burnoye Lake Issyk-Kul Bishkek Ala-Bel Zhambylskaya Gres 1230 MW Shymkent KYRGYZ REP. Kara-Keche 1200 MW SHARDARA RESERVOIR Max. Volume 5.2 Bil. cubic meters Toktogul 1200MW Charvak Gazalkent Angren Kurpsai 800 MW Novo-Angren 2100MW (under expansion) Datka 500/220 kv Kairakkum 126MW Uzbekiston Lochin Tashkent 1860 MW Shardara ARNASAI DEPRESSION Max. Volume 66 Bil. cubic meters TOKTOGUL RESERVOIR Full storage 19.5 Bil. cubic meters Active storage 14.0 Bil. cubic meters Tashkent Shardarinskaya UZBEKISTAN Syrdarya 3000MW Navoi 1250 MW Amu Darya 40 N KAIRAKKUM RESERVOIR Full storage 3.1 Bil. cubic meters Active storage 2.5 Bil. cubic meters Khudjand 40 N Karakul Sogdiana Tajik Fang-Yagnob Coal TPP 1500 MW Seidi Dushanbe Dushanbe Nurek 3000 MW Sangtuda 2 C Sangtuda 500/220 kv and Converter Station 200 MW Sangtuda 1 670 MW Guzar CHINA TAJIKISTAN NUREK HPP AND RESERVOIR Full storage 10.5 Bil. cubic meters Active storage 4.5 Bil. cubic meters Talimarjan 800 MW (expansion) TURKMENISTAN Surkhan Mary IBRD 40753 JULY 2014 80 E CENTRAL ASIA POWER NETWORKS 35 N Naghlu Peshawar Charikar Kabul Kabul 300MW 35 N Tarbela AFGHANISTAN Islamabad Peshawar 1300 MW Helmand OPERATIONAL UNDER CONSTRUCTION PROSPECTIVE Gazi- Brotha 765-1150 kv OVERHEAD LINES 500 kv OVERHEAD LINES 765-1150 kv SUBSTATIONS 500 kv SUBSTATIONS Indus HYDRO POWER PLANTS: >1,000 MW 500 1000 MW PAKISTAN I.R. OF IRAN 30 N 30 N THERMAL POWER PLANTS: >1,000 MW 500 1000 MW INDIA 150 Kilometers 0 0 150 Miles 70 E 75 E This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank. The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other information shown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World Bank Group, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. GSDPM Map Design Unit

Climate Change in Central Asia Seasonal Flow of the Syr Darya Projected to Decrease? Glacial Melting Accelerating in Central Asia? Central Asia is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change. The World Bank s 2009 report, Adapting to Climate Change in Central Asia, notes that average temperatures in the region have already increased by 0.5 C and are projected to increase by 1.6 to 2.6 C by 2030-50. Regionally, climate change is projected to lead to higher temperatures, changes in precipitation, increased incidents of flooding and more severe and prolonged droughts, with corresponding variable water availability. The region s vulnerability to climate change is exacerbated by inefficient resource use and aging infrastructure, limited enforcement of regulations, and an inherited severely degraded environment. water discharge m 3 /second 2,000 1,600 1,200 800 400 0 JAN Projection 2071-2100 (A1B emission scenario) irrigation season Flow today FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC Source: Shiklomanov 2009 Cumulative mass balance (5,000 mm w.e. units) 1910 Level of first measurement Golubin Sary-Tor Tuyuksu Karabatkak Abramov Urumqi No. 1 1930 1950 1970 1990 Source: Nature Climate Change, DOI:10.1038/NCLIMATE1592 2010 Climate change affects all sectors vital to economic growth and development in the region, not least of which are energy, agriculture, and disaster risk management that also cut across national borders. Weather-related disasters are currently estimated at 1% of GDP per year in Tajikistan and Kyrgyz Republic. Adaptation will be a requirement, rather than an option, for the region. Policies and interventions to address climate change vulnerabilities have the potential to drive innovation, open up new areas of investment and private sector activity, as well as promote plant-level efficiencies and economic savings. For example, a clear plan to align agricultural policies, develop capabilities of key agricultural institutions, and make needed investments in infrastructure and on-farm improvements can help offset risks. In the energy sector, energy efficiency and diversification provide both immediate economic benefits and help build long-term climate resilience. Water demand in both sectors will emphasize the need for effective national and transboundary water management. 12 13

Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program The Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program (CAEWDP) is building energy and water security by leveraging the benefits of enhanced cooperation. It aims to strengthen security through partnerships with all five Central Asian countries plus Afghanistan in regional initiatives and with development partners in the context of a changing global environment. The program delivers substantial technical expertise, analytics, and diagnostics for informed decision making and smart investments. Global experience in transboundary water management encourages crossborder dialogue on coordinated management of energy and water resources while strengthening the institutions that manage these resources. Regional dialogue has been significantly bolstered by the transparent knowledge platform the program provides. With initial activities successfully underway, the CAEWDP has established several important building blocks. These activities identified critical infrastructure, institutional and analytical constraints, and helped establish long-term priorities for the program. In upstream countries (Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan), the focus will be to identify and secure new sources of winter energy supply and manage current shortages to reduce the burden on households and associated economic impacts on small business, commercial enterprises, and industry. The Three Pillars of the Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program (CAEWDP) Energy Development Water Productivity Energy-Water Linkages Promote and study high-value energy investments that focus on winter energy security, energy efficiency, trade and accountability, infrastructure planning and institutional development. Focus Winter energy security including infrastructure planning Energy trade Energy accountability Energy efficiency Enhance the productive and efficient use of water in agriculture and energy sectors through capacity strengthening, institutional strengthening, and investment planning. Focus 3rd Aral Sea Basin Management Program National investment plans for new and rehabilitated infrastructure for irrigation efficiency Introduction of new technologies, and efficient delivery of water supply services Improve the understanding of linkages between energy and water at the national and regional levels through dialogue, energy-water modeling, regional hydrometeorology and exploring the future impact of climate change. Focus Energy-water modeling Regional hydrometeorology Climate vulnerability Energy-water dialogue Knowledge portal (web-based open access data) Promoting irrigation efficiency Methodology for prioritizing irrigation investments for water efficiency Analysis of economic benefits of power trade Winter energy crisis study and action plan In downstream countries (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan), the focus will be to improve the productivity and efficiency of irrigation systems, address impacts of climate change, and help build resilience to hydrologic variability. Regional hydrometeorology program Regional climate change knowledge forum EARLY EFFORTS OF THE CAEWDP AND WORKS IN PROGRESS A basin-level water-energy model based on earth-systems satellite imagery and remote sensing data Regional programs offer substantial potential to achieve results on development issues. Regional projects have successfully built new assets and protected existing ones in ways expected to benefit all participating countries. World Bank Group Independent Evaluation 14 15

Partnerships are critical to the rational use of water and energy in Central Asia Regional dialogue and cooperation are necessary to manage energy and water resources in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan as well as Afghanistan. The CAEWDP brings together national and regional governments, civil society organizations, an engaged international panel of advisors, donors and development partners, and international financial institutions such as the World Bank. The program is founded on partnerships with governments so that program activities reflect national aspirations and priorities. CAEWDP also partners with regional organizations whose mandates are to convene discussions on regional issues, such as the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS). Cooperation from the development and financing communities assists the CAEWDP to meet program goals, collaborate on methodologies, provide technical assistance, or contribute funds for core program activities. A Multi-Donor Trust Fund has been established with cumulative contributions of over US$10 million, including contributions from Switzerland ($3.71 million), the United Kingdom ($5.27 million) and the European Commission ($1.35 million). The trust fund s Donor Advisory Committee provides strategic guidance to the CAEWDP. The CAEWDP has worked jointly with other development partners on specific activities and projects, in both water and energy, including the Swiss Development Corporation (SDC), the United Nations Centre for Preventive Diplomacy (UNRCCA), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), Germany (GIZ), the United States (USAID), and the Aga Khan Foundation. The World Bank welcomes other potential partners to support livelihoods, economic growth, peace, and security in this important region of the world. For further information, please contact: Daryl Fields, CAEWDP Program Manager, World Bank, dfields@worldbank.org Abena Akuffo-Akoto, CAEWDP Partnership Specialist, World Bank, aakuffoakoto@worldbank.org Andrei Shevelov, Almaty, Kazakhstan