Agricultural Satellite Monitoring and Crop Yield Forecasting in Ukraine N. Kussul 1, S. Skakun 1, A. Shelestov 1,2 1 Space Research Institute NASU-SSAU 2 National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine Crop Yield Forecasting in South East Europe 30-31 May, 2013, Skopje, Macedonia Who we are: Current Expertise & International Activities Space Research Institute National Academy of Science & National Space Agency of Ukraine Department of Space Information Technologies Active participation in the Working Group on Information System and Services (WGISS) of the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS). Participation in international collaborative activities within GEO Working Plan UN-SPIDER RSO 1
% pixels classified as cereals 10/22/2013 Background: the EC project The Monitoring Agricultural ResourceS (MARS) Project ЕС JRC Crop area estimation with satellite images in Ukraine, 2009-2011 Satellite data Ground data Processing Orthorectification Segmentation Classification Along the road survey Stratified Area Frame Sampling LC map Area estimates (pixel counting) Crop field boundaries Segments Data fusion Adjustment of area estimates (Regression estimator) % oats in ground survey Data: MODIS AWiFS Landsat-5/TM LISS-III RapidEye Final results Area estimates Accuracy assessment The benefit from satellite data usage: Decrease of work cost in 1.5 times Area frame sampling (segments) and along the road surveys (curves) GEO JECAM-test sites in Ukraine Test sites were officially established in 2011 Test sites Kyiv oblast (SRI) Crop area estimation In-situ measurements crop types, along the roads and segment surveys Pshenychne (National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine) Biopar parameters retrieval and crop growth model calibration In-situ measurements crop types, crop height, LAI, fcover, soil parameters Lviv oblast (The State Science- Technological Centre of Soil Fertility Protective) Crop rotation identification Administrative map of Ukraine and location of Kyiv and Lviv region Map of intensive observation sub-site Relationship between humus and satellite-derived biomass 2
JECAM-related tasks (cont ) GEO-GLAM Winter Wheat Yield Forecasting for the whole Ukraine Based on satellite data, meteorological observations, crop growth model SOAR-JECAM SAR parameters optimization for crop classification Based on Radarsat-2 quad-polarized images ESA Sentinel2-Agriculture Participation as a Champion User SPOT-4 will observe JECAM Ukraine every 5 days to simulate Sintenel-2 Within FP7 ImagineS Validation of global satellite products Validation of global products For JECAM test site in Ukraine Within FP7 ImagineS (Dr. Roselyne Lacaze HYGEOS, Earth Observation Department Toulouse, FRANCE) Follows VALERI protocol (30 ESU elementary sampling units) compliant with CEOS Land Product Validation (LPV) guidelines CAN-EYE software Biophysical parameters: LAI, FAPAR, FCover 3
Validation of global products (cont ) Example of processing for winter wheat SOAR-JECAM SAR parameters optimization for crop classification Data Radarsat-2 (quad-pol) 27 and 30 August 2012 EO-1/ALI 28 July and 05 August 2012 Major crop types Maize Soybeans Sunflower Sugar beet Winter and spring crops (wheat) Radarsat-2, 2012-07-30 RADARSAT-2 Data and Products MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates Ltd.(2012) - All Rights Reserved. EO-1, 2012-08-05 4
SOAR-JECAM (cont ) Classification algorithms DT SVM NN (MLP) Overall accuracy 80.4% (MLP) Classification map of Radarsat-2 and EO-1/ALI images using ensemble of MLPs Crop rotation identification Lviv oblast Satellite data Landsat7 (2012.05.10) Landsat5 (2011.05.25) Crop rotation violation Winter rapeseed Landsat 5 2011-05-25 Landsat 7 2012-05-10 5
10/22/2013 Тематическая карта состояния посевов озимых и ярых зерновых культур АР Крым Красногвардейский район, 27 мая 2013 г. Легенда Зерновые культуры степень повреждения посевов Поздние яровые 0-30% 30-70%культуры70-100% Необрабатываемые поля Інститут космiчних дослiджень НАН України та ДКА України проспект Академiка Глушкова, 40 03680, Київ 187, Україна Тел./факс: +380-44-526-25-53 email: inform@ikd.kiev.ua Winter wheat yield forecasting Three approaches empirical regression-based model using MODIS data, empirical regression-based model using meteorological parameters, and adapted for Ukraine Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) based on WOFOST crop growth simulation model and meteorological parameters; 6
Winter wheat forecast for 2012 Operational forecasting of winter wheat yield in Ukraine for 2012 based on Earth observation 50 40 Predicted, c/ha 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Observed, c/ha Winter wheat forecasts for Ukraine for 2012 as of 2 June 2012 Winter wheat crop yield forecast for 2013 (23/05/2013) 7
Change of crop yield forecast between 23.05.13 and 08.05.13 Geoportal: delivery of EO products (jecam.org.ua) soybean, 90 ha Not planted, 40 ha 8
We are interested in collaboration in research and education Thank you! kussul@mail.ru nataliia.kussul@gmail.com 9