GMO Crops, Trade Wars, and a New Site Specific Mutagensis System A. Lawrence Christy, Ph.D.
Background PhD in Plant Physiology from Ohio State University 12 years with Monsanto R&D in PGR s and herbicides 5 years with USDA National program leader for weed science 6 years with Crop Genetics Intl. Co-founder of AgriTech in 1996 CTO, VP of Operations, and board member of Entek, Inc Co-Founder and President of PhyGenics, LLC Consultant on Bio-Tech regulation and Herbicide tolerance
Commercialization of GMO or Transgenic Crops GMO crops have revolutionized agriculture in North America Major impact on the agricultural chemical business Trait development to date Herbicide tolerance Insect resistance Factors other than technology affect commercialization Government Regulation Consumer acceptance Weed control or product efficacy Patents and contracts
Growth of Transgenic Crops Millions of Acres 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Total Industrial Developing 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Transgenic crops by country 120 Acres (Millions) 100 80 60 40 20 1999 2000 2001 2002 0 US Argentina Canada China S. Africa Australia
Growth of Transgenic Crops Millions of Acres 100 80 60 40 20 0 Soybean Corn Cotton Canola 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Market penetration of Roundup Ready in US Soybeans Technology Market Penetration Percent 100 80 60 40 20 0 RR Soybeans DVD Players VCR Decks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Years
Growth of Transgenic Crops by Trait Millions of Acres 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Total Herbicide Tolerance Insect Resistance Both 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Herbicide Tolerant Crops Herbicide tolerant crops can be treated with a nonselective herbicide (e.g. Roundup, Liberty) that controls most weeds without damage to the crop. Conventional weed control requires: Two or more herbicides Narrow application window, as little as one day Higher cost
Growth of Herbicide Tolerant Traits 140 Millions of Acres 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Roundup Ready Liberty Link Clearfield STS/Sulfonylurea Sethoxydim BXN 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 * Roundup Ready = glyphosate tolerance
Benefits and Advantages of Herbicide Tolerant Crops Increased yields Reduced input costs Improved net returns Reduced herbicide use and environmental impact Performance excellent weed control Simplicity single product Rotation crop flexibility Fewer weather and timing problems
Soybean Weed Control Profits Shifting to Seed 1998 2001 2004 Technology fee per acre 6.00 7.50 9.65 Roundup cost / acre @20ozs/acre 5.94 4.38 2.34 Roundup cost / gal 38.00 28.00 15.00 Farmer cost for weed control per acre 11.94 11.88 11.99 Estimate of Monsanto profit on Roundup Ready Soybeans in 2002 Net sales = $520 MM Net revenue = $ 370 MM
Weed Control Profits Shifting to Seed Monsanto Gross Profit Transititon 1400 1200 1000 Millions 800 600 400 Seeds and Traits Roundup Herbicide 200 0 01 02 03 04* Source Monsanto 2003 Annual Report *Estimated
Market Potential of Several Crops CROP Treatable Acres (MM) Herbicide Tolerance Value ($/A) HT Trait Market Potential ($MM) PhyGenics Share in 2011 (%) PhyGenics Potential Market Opportunity ($MM) Spring Wheat 42.9 7.00 300 30% 90.1 Winter Wheat 101.4 5.00 507 25% 126.8 Rice 15.6 20.00 312 35% 109.2 Sugarcane 15.1 15.00 227 35% 79.3 Totals 175.0 1,346 405.3 * Spring Wheat US, Canada Winter Wheat US, Europe Rice US, Japan. Brazil Sugarcane US, Brazil, S. Africa
Biotechnology Research Platforms Monsanto Syngenta DuPont Dow BASF Bayer Commercially Available Traits RR maize, cotton, canola and soybean B.t. maize, B.t. cotton, Stacked gene (RR/IR) crops B.t. maize Licenced in RR and B.t. maize and Herculex I B.t. maize and Herculex I maize LL canola and maize Development traits Inputs RR wheat Stacked gene crops Disease resistance Enhanced Roundup Ready tolerance Glyphosate tolerance Corn rootworm resistant maize Disease resistance Stacked gene crops Disease resistance maize Soybean cyst nematode resistance WideStrike cotton Corn rootworm resistant maize Herculex II maize Disease resistance Other LL crops Output traits Agronomic traits High fermentable starch maize Soybean with low linolenic content Increased yield in soybean and maize Improved grain size and yield in maize Stress tolerance Enhanced shelf life banana Microbial phytase Soybean with high oleic content Soybean with low linolenic content Drought tolerant maize Maize with high oil content Canola with high oleic content High oil content Vitamin content Stress tolerance Altered oil content in canola Novel carbohydrate production Stress tolerance Note: CRW = corn rootworm; LL = Liberty Link; RR- Roundup Ready; IR = Insect resistant
Study of the Impact of GMO crops on Agriculture National Center for Food and Agriculture Policy - NCFAP 40 Biotech Case Studies Herbicide Tolerant Insect Resistant Fungal Resistant Nematode Resistant Viral Resistant Bacterial Resistant 27 Crops in 47 States Literature Review (1100 citations) Interview/Survey of Researchers (180) Written Case Studies Sent to Outside Reviewers (80)
Impact of GMO crops in 2001 Food and Fiber Production + 4 Billion Lbs. Farm Income + $ 1.4 Billion Pesticide Use - 52 Million Lbs.
Impact of 6 GMO Trait and Crop Combinations Crop Trait Acres Total Net Value Pesticide Use ($000/year) (pounds/year) Canola Herbicide Tol. 871,000 11,000-531,000 Soybean Herbicide Tol. 50,016,000 1,010,765-28,703,001 Field Corn Insect Res. 14,927,000 125,356-2,603,456 Field Corn Herbicide Tol. 5,805,000 58,050-5,805,000 Cotton Insect Res. 5,144,000 102,968-5,144,000 Cotton Herbicide Tol. 9,301,000 132,676-9,301,000 Totals 86,064,000 1,440,815-52,087,457
Potential Impact of an additional 20 crops Food and Fiber Production + 10 Billion Lbs. Farm Income + $ 1 Billion Pesticide Use - 117 Million Lbs.
Why do Environmentalists oppose GMO crops? More pesticide use Insertion of foreign genes Foreign promoters disrupt normal gene expression Fear of technology Lack a balanced view Do not play by the rules $$$$$ - follow the money
Some recent headlines US seeks $1.6 B from EU over GMO ban EPA extends registration on Monsanto s Bt corn UDV seeks talks on GMO future Venezuela to prohibit transgenic crops Vermont becomes first state with GE seeds labeling law GM maize: EU ministers fail to agree on safety Europe gripped by phantom fears over GM, business chief says
Are there some valid concerns??? Pests become resistant to valuable pest control technology Bt insecticide Glyphosate Gene flow to other species development of super weeds or pests Can be prevented Harm non-targeted or beneficial organisms Enhanced allergenicity in food GMO crops are carefully tested
Consumer and Trade Issues Food processors not receptive All risk - no benefit from the technology Identity preservation Fear of Frankenfoods Risk vs. benefits drives decisions Indirect benefits to consumers Trade issues/regulation EU food safety issue Food labeling being used to keep crops and products out
Regulation of transgenic crops US 3 to 5 years and as much as $50 million USDA APHIS Transgenics are regulated Mutations and classical breeding are not regulated FDA novel food and feed EPA pesticidial traits only, i.e., Bt Canada 2 to 4 years, $10 to 25 million CFIA ALL traits are considered novel traits and are regulated The more exotic they are the more it costs and the longer it takes, ie., transgenic s take longer than mutations or classical breeding
Regulation of transgenic crops European Union (EU) - many years many $$$ Directive 2001/18 Deliberate release into the environment of a genetically modified organism Transgenics are regulated Mutations and classical breeding are not regulated Regulation 258/97 - Concerning novel foods and food ingredients Recently approved first GMO Other countries Brazil - Regulated by CTNBio Recently approved first GMO India - starting to loosen up Cotton Japan - Number of imports approved no crops in production Australia similar to US
Discussion So what do you think? Are the environmentalists right or are they just out to make a buck? Is the truth some where in the middle? Consumer acceptance?