Climate Change and Climate Engineering Term: Fall 2014 Class hours: Room: Wednesday 4:00 7:00 PM The location will alternate between HKS and MIT (see class schedule). HKS location: HKS 1BA 401 1 Brattle Square, 4 th floor. MIT location: 33 422 Building 33, 4 th floor HKS Instructor: David Keith Office: Telephone: E mail: Assistant: My primary office is on the 4 th floor of 1 Brattle Square. 857 294 2050 Note: this is my cell number. I prefer that you contact me by email, if you do need to call do so only between 7 AM and 7 PM. david_keith@harvard.edu Melissa Kappotis (melissa_kappotis@hks.harvard.edu) MIT Instructor: Steven Barrett Office: 33 316 Telephone: 617 452 2550 E mail: sbarrett@mit.edu Assistant: Melanie Burliss (mburliss@mit.edu) TA: Textbook: Sebastian Eastham (seastham@mit.edu) will serve as Teaching Assistnat for both MIT and HKS students. None Overview (Calendar listing) An introductory course bringing rigorous analysis to bear on the emerging global challenge of climate engineering. Important in its own right, geoengineering the deliberate alteration of the earth s climate also provides a new lens with which to view climate science and policy. A gram of aerosol in the stratosphere can offset the warming effect of a ton of carbon dioxide, a factor of a million to one. This is roughly the same factor by which nuclear explosives overpower conventional bombs. Like nuclear weapons climate engineering technologies present an extraordinary governance challenge in a divided world. The course is jointly offered by the faculty at Harvard Kennedy School and MIT. It introduces climate change, climate engineering, and climate policy assuming no prior knowledge of these topics. The course is intended for professional school students or graduate students. Confidence with mathematics and physical science at the freshman level is assumed. The course will have a substantial quantitative component, about two thirds of the content will be science and technology and one third will be public policy. 1
Extended description Climate change is the major environmental science, technology and policy challenge facing society in the 21 st century. So far nations have failed to cut greenhouse gas emissions, there is little obvious prospect of major progress, and significant warming is forecast in the decades ahead. Climate engineering offers a possible way of offsetting the worst of the impacts of greenhouse gas emissions. Research suggests it may work and be low cost. Could climate engineering be the way to avert catastrophic climate change in the event of continued global failure to reduce CO 2 emissions fast enough? Would the "moral hazard" of having a way out of emissions mitigation worsen things in the long run? And might there be an unintended major environmental impact of engineering the climate? This new special subject offered in fall 2014 by MIT and HKS will explore these questions, starting from a rigorous treatment of the science of climate change, introducing the technologies that could enable climate engineering, and debating the policy and governance challenges that it brings about. Note that this is a quantitative subject requiring fluency with freshman level mathematics, physics and chemistry. Who should take the subject? Students interested in the intersection of science, technology and policy Students interested in addressing the challenge of climate change Students who think large scale deliberate engineering of the planet offers great opportunity to improve life on earth, or who think it poses great dangers to life on earth, or who want to develop a view on the topic Each three hour session will typically consist of three parts: 1 2 lectures on scientific or technical topics, and 1 2 other activities. These other activities will include debates/discussions, guest speakers (both research and policy), and regular in class quizzes so that students are keeping up with the technical and scientific content. 2
Learning objectives 1. Develop a quantitative understanding of the leading atmospheric and oceanic consequences climate change and a critical overview of the human and ecosystem impacts of climate change. 2. Explain the main climate engineering proposals, estimate their physical impacts, and describe risks associated with their use. 3. Describe and assess the public policy of climate and climate engineering. Lecture schedule # Date Location Topics 1 9/10/14 HKS Emissions and climate change forecasts; Introduction to climate change and climate engineering. 2 9/17/14 MIT Radiative forcing and climate response. Feedback theory; Climate as a boundary value problem; Linearity of response; Uncertainty. 3 9/24/14 HKS* General circulation of the atmosphere; Climate models; Climate response and climate feedbacks 4 10/1/14 HKS Public policy primer: cost benefit analysis and its limits, optimal policy, game theoretic approaches; other perspectives; Climate policy. 5 10/8/14 MIT Overview of solar geoengineering approaches; Historical perspective; CDR; Cloud brightening. 6 10/15/14 HKS Stratospheric particle injection. 7 10/22/14 MIT Atmospheric chemistry. 8 10/29/14 HKS Climate response to SRM; Hydro cycle; Impacts of climate change and climate engineering. 9 11/5/14 MIT Aerosols in the atmosphere; Inadvertent geoeng. 10 11/12/14 HKS Technical assessment of SRM: effectiveness, risks, costs; Disagreement between experts; Formal assessments. 11 11/19/14 MIT Governance. 12 12/3/14 MIT* Final oral exam. *Note that these locations have changed from the draft schedule in the course brochure 3
Prerequisites Math (including calculus), physics and chemistry at a introductory freshman level. An advanced (e.g., Advanced Placement, A level, or IB) high school course may be sufficient if the student is energetic. For students registering from MIT, the requirement is GIRs (General Institute Requirements) in mathematics, physics and chemistry (or equivalent). No previous knowledge of climate change or atmospheric science assumed. Assignments & Grading While the class is jointly taught and administered, the responsibility for final grades for MIT students rests with Prof Barrett while the responsibility for final grades for Harvard students rests with Prof Keith. All students are expected to participate in both science and policy portions of the course. Students much choose one of two assessment tracks: science or policy. The choice must be communicated to the instructors in writing before 24th September. The choice of track in not determined by the school in which the students are registered (e.g., MIT students can do the policy track and HKS students can do science.) Activity/Assignment Weight (Science Track) Weight (Policy Track) Date All students: Class participation 10% 10% All classes All students: Quizzes/In class exams 5 quizzes administered during class. 45 min each. The best 3 of 5 quizzes will count toward the final grade. Policy track only: Essay A research essay that analyzes a specific aspect of climate policy. 2000 words maximum not including references. 30% 15% Setp 24 Oct 1 Oct 15 Oct 29 Nov 12 N/A 45% 4
Essay topics must be agreed advance with a confirmation by email. We will provide a detailed written critique of each essay. Students will then revise their essays and I will mark the second time. Much student writing involves a one time push to produce a finished product that is soon forgotten. Professional writing almost always involves rewriting. This structure is intended to encourage that skill. The second essay mark is independent from the first. Science track only: Research brief A short technical research paper Topic must be agreed in writing with instructors by 2 nd October. 30% N/A All students: Oral exam 30% 30% 5