P Läderach, A Eitzinger, A Benedikter, J Gordon, K Rhiney Globalization, Climate Change and Rural Resilience: The Challenge of Sustainable Development in the Caribbean and Beyond. May 9-11, 2012, Kingston, Jamaica Impact of climate change on Jamaican Agriculture & longterm sustainability of the hotel industry supply chain
Sampling design and field work Exposure to climate change Sensitivity & adaptive capacity Impacts on the local supply chain Adaptation strategies outline
Diagram of the Methodology
Sampling & study zone ia Criteria for selecting communities: Pre-results of crop-suitability-change Different production areas (covering all crops and production systems) Farmer is/is not a active supplier of Hotel industry
FIELD WORK October 2010 Field-work supported by UWI - University of West Indies 5 focal workshops in selected communities: Douglas Castle St. Ann / Beacon - St. Elizabeth / Christiana Manchester Fort George - St. Mary / Dumfries - St. Thomas 130 individual surveys with farmer 200 GPS points collected of participating farms and production locations (used as crop reference sites for climatic conditions)
Diagram of the Methodology
Exposure to Climate Change Vulnerability Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity
Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) CLIMATE CHANGE GCM predictions for 2030 & 2050 Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) Extracted Climate Data for Jamaica By 2050 average temperature increases 1.7 C passing through 1 C by 2030 By 2050 the maximum annual temperature increases 2 C and the minimum annual temperature increases 1.5 C By 2050 annual precipitation decreases 65 mm passing through a decrease of 53 mm in 2030 It will be hotter year-round and there will be less precipitation
Table of suitability-change of all examined crops
Analysis EXPOSURE of 19 GCM Suitability Models change from the for Fourth banana IPCC under Evaluation progressive Report climate (2007) change current Suitability in % 2030 2050
Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) EXPOSURE Suitability change for tomato (salad) under progressive climate change current Suitability in % 2030 2050
Analysis EXPOSURE of 19 Suitability GCM Models change from for the tomato Fourth (plummy) IPCC Evaluation under progressive Report (2007) climate change current Suitability in % 2030 2050
Analysis EXPOSURE of 19 GCM Suitability Models change from the for Fourth ginger IPCC under Evaluation progressive Report climate (2007) change current Suitability in % 2030 2050
Analysis EXPOSURE of 19 GCM Suitability Models change from the for Fourth mango IPCC under Evaluation progressive Report climate (2007) change current Suitability in % 2030 2050
Exposure to Climate Change Vulnerability Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity
SENSITIVITY & ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
SENSITIVITY & ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Socio-economic analysis Low Sensitivity (high value) Physical Type of road, material of house, ownership Natural Water is quite evenly distributed, enough water, sustainable practices on waste management Medium Sensitivity High Sensitivity (low value) Financial credits are available but not accessible (or not used) Social lack of presence of farm-organizations Human missing training, don t keep records High Adaptive Capacity (high value) Natural Distance to water-access, water quality, waste-management (recycling), Type of soil Medium Adaptive Capacity Physical Short distance to market, good access to electricity, availability of transportation Low Adaptive Capacity (low value) Social missing activities of organizations Financial lack of access to credit, indirect marketing channel, missing certification Human low access to training, degree of education It seems as if specially vulnerable subgroups exist behind the data. Further analysis is needed to characterize them. e.g. marketing channel, ownership of land, education and access to training
Climate-vulnerable crops will be more costly for farmers to produce since yields will decrease and the crops will require more demanding management Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) IMPLICATIONS FOR THE HOTEL INDUSTRY SUPPLY CHAIN Quality and quantity of the goods produced will be more volatile and likely cause unpredictable shortages or excesses on the markets, affecting farm-gate prices and value streams to the customers in many ways climatic suitability for key Jamaican crops, will decrease, reducing the areas of cultivation, adversely affecting quality of the products and cause some crops to migrate to other niches Farmers will be forced to focus on the most climate-resilient and profitable crops, which in turn will reduce the variety of goods available
Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) ADAPTATION STRATEGIES DEVELOPED FROM LOCAL WORKSHOPS Adapting to changing seasons and extreme weather events and long-term focus on sustainable production, particularly with the aid of greenhouses and water storage facilities (tanks) Training and education of farmers in sustainable farming practices, especially soil management, greenhouse technology and mechanization Organization of farmers into groups that will allow them to have better access to financing, information and other resources Implementation of Governmental policy (especially regarding land acquisition) Develop infrastructure to improve marketing
Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) ADAPTATION STRATEGIES Proposed by CIAT Variety sampling for improved climate-suitability Nurseries for seedling production Evacuation containers to house seedling during the passage of hurricanes or heavy rainfalls Crop diversification Supplementary irrigation to control water stress Small, enclosed farming systems to control the harvesting season Alternative crops for highly exposed crops Agroforestry systems
Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) ADAPTATION STRATEGIES Proposed by CIAT cont d Strengthening of local capacity and knowledge sharing Funding of communitybased groups Training and awareness building of communities for climate change Alliance building along value-chains Best practice learning from areas with similar climates
P Läderach, A Eitzinger, A Benedikter, J Gordon, K Rhiney 3rd Annual Sustainable Livelihoods Learning Network Conference, Jamaica 2011 Impact of climate change on Jamaican agriculture & longterm sustainability of the hotel industry Thank you!