Visions of the Future Electricity Supply Structure - How Liberalisation, Increased Share of Renewable Energies, Decentralised Generation and ICT will Change Electricity Systems Prof. Dr. Jürgen Schmid ISET Insitute for Solar Energy Supply Technology Kassel/Hanau, Germany University of Kassel Efficient Energy Conversion The current global energy situation and future trends The potential of energy efficiency New sources of renewable energies Energy and communication European research on future supply structures Markets for energy and power quality Virtual utilities Vision for a sustainable electricity supply of Europe
Institut für Solare Energieversorgungstechnik e.v. Systems Technology for the Utilisation of Renewable Energies and for the Decentralised Power Supply Applications-oriented Research and Development Wind Energy Photovoltaics Use of Biomass Energy Conversion and Storage Hybrid Systems Energy Economy Information and Training Executive Board: Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jürgen Schmid Dr. rer. nat. Oliver Führer Personnel: 75 Employees Budget: approxim. 8 Mio. Euro Information: www.iset.uni-kassel.de www.ired-cluster.org www.dispower.org
Wind Energy 80000 MW 70000 60000 50000 40000 World Europe Germany German wind energy production 40000 GWh 35000 30000 25000 20000 30000 15000 20000 10000 10000 5000 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 0 Sources: BTM consult, windpower monthly, IWR, ISET,BWE, WWEA
Wind Energy 160 m 140 120 Milestones of technology development 3 MW ø 100 m 2,5 MW ø 80 m 5 MW ø 115 m 100 80 60 40 20 100 kw ø 34 m 60 kw ø 16 m 250 kw ø 25 m 500 kw ø 40 m 0 Hütter W34 Growian 1957 1982 1988 1990 1993 2000 200X
Experience Curve of Wind Energy
Change of Energy Supply Structures coal nuclear hydro high voltage grid medium voltage grid low voltage grid Up to now Central generation Sizing for coverage of max. load Time-invariant tariffs Load rejection at customer No information of grid status for customers Strict power limits for feed-in Large power reserves for unexpected loads or failure of power plants required Only unidirectional control required
Change of Energy Supply Structures In the future Additional decentralised generation Load coverage by trading Time-variable tariffs Load and cost optimisation by means of dialog Up to date information by means of variable tariffs Variable power limitation depending on present load Power reserves will be reduced by means of trade Bidirectional communication and large flow of information coal nuclear hydro gas and steam wind farm Wind PV BZ KWK PV BZ
Energy and Communication Energy and Cost Management power decentralized production consumers production 005 3 77 time conventional power stations
Reserve Power Demand Source: D. Schlecht, RWTH Aachen
Energy and Communication Power gradients (one hour mean values) 100 Deutsches Verbundnetz 10 E.ON+RWE WP-Gruppe Küste WP-Gruppe Binnenland Häufigkeit [%] 1 0,1 0,01 0,001-100 -80-60 -40-20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Leistungsänderung [% P installiert ]
DENA Grid Study Forecast of Wind Energy Development in Germany until 2020 Source: DENA 2005 / DEWI Scenario
DENA Grid Study Prediction Errors Frequency of occurence depending on power level Source: DENA 2005 ISET
DENA Grid Study Capacity Credit Dependency on the level of security of supply Source: DENA 2005
DENA Grid Study Capacity Credit Dependency on geographical distribution Source: DENA 2005
DENA Grid Study Additional Reserve Power Demand - depending on installed wind capacity Source: DENA 2005
DENA Grid Study Power Plant Development in Germany 2003 2015 / Basic scenario Source: DENA 2005
DENA Grid Study Source: DENA 2005
European Grid Extensions and Reinforcements European Commission TEN-E Initiative : Priority axes Source: European Commission / DG TREN (2003)
Cluster of R&D projects and experts for the Integration of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) and Distributed Energy Resources (DER) into the European Electricity Grid www.ired-cluster.org
Technology Platform Electricity Networks of the Future Source: European Commission DG Research
Thank you for your attention! More informations on: www.iset.uni-kassel.de www.ired-cluster.org www.dispower.org Institut für Solare Energieversorgungstechnik e.v. Systems Technology for the Utilisation of Renewable Energies and for the Decentral Power Supply Applications-oriented Research and Development Wind Energy Photovoltaics Use of Biomass Energy Conversion and Storage Hybrid Systems Energy Economy Information and Training