German Energy Policy: Reactions after the Fukushima Accident ( Energiewende )

Transcription

1 German Energy Policy: Reactions after the Fukushima Accident ( Energiewende ) - Energiewende & Nuclear Phase-out (NPo) - Energy consume & Energy mix - Consequences of the NPo - Self-imposed goals & EC-goals - Alternatives: Wind & Solar - Problems Grids, Energy Storage, Investments - Conclusions toscano.enrique@tiscali.it

2 PRIMARY ENERGY andgdp Primary Energy [PJ] GDP 2.500, ,0 2011: 2,439.1 [billion ] From % 2.400, , ,0 (2011: Toe) 2.250, , , ,

3 ENERGY FLOW 3

4 PRIMARY ENERGY MIX Various (including saldo electricity import/export) 2% Nuclear 9% Renewables 11% Oil 34% Oil 34% Lignite 12% Black coal 12% Natural gas 20% (February 2012, Toe) 4

5 ELECTRICAL ENERGY 2010 Renewables 16% Mineral oil 1% Rest 4% Lignite 23% Electricity consumption (2011): GWh Natural gas 14% Bituminuos 19% Nuclear 23% : Fukushima ENERGIEWENDE (Nuclear phase out) 2011 Renewables 20% Rest 4% Lignite 25% Mineral oil 1% Natural gas 14% Bituminuos 19% Nuclear 17% 5

6 Nuclear Energy in Germany Plant Type MWe (net) Start Commercial operation Operator Scheduled shut-down 2010 agreed shut-down March 2011 shutdown & May closure plan Energy (2009) Total Energy (2010) Time [%] Location of spent Production [GWh] Production [GWh] Disponibility Fuel Storage Biblis-A PWR 1167 Feb 75 RWE shutdown In containment Neckarwestheim-1 PWR 785 Dez 76 EnBW shutdown In containment Brunsbüttel BWR 771 Feb 77 Vattenfall shutdown In reactor building Biblis-B PWR 1240 Jan 77 RWE shutdown In containment Isar-1 BWR 878 Mrz 79 E.ON shutdown In reactor building Unterweser PWR 1345 Sep 79 E.ON shutdown In containment Phillipsburg-1 BWR 890 Mrz 80 EnBW shutdown In reactor building Kruemmel BWR 1260 Mrz 84 Vattenfall shutdown In reactor building Total shut down (8) 8336 Grafenrheinfeld PWR 1275 Jun 82 E.ON In containment Gundremmingen-B BWR 1284 Apr 84 RWE In reactor building Gundremmingen-C BWR 1288 Jan 85 RWE In reactor building Grohnde PWR 1360 Feb 85 E.ON In containment Phillipsburg-2 PWR 1392 Apr 85 EnBW In containment Brokdorf PWR 1370 Dez 86 E.ON In containment Isar-2 PWR 1400 Apr 88 E.ON In containment Emsland PWR 1329 Jun 88 RWE In containment Neckarwestheim-2 PWR 1305 Apr 89 EnBW In containment Total operating (9) 12, Total (17) 20,339 MWe Fuel Tax 6

7 Self-imposed goals Energy Policy Specific targets established A monitoring process settled A sound financing plan (??) 180 individual measures Greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced (reference 1990) by: 40 % by % by % by % by 2050 (EU-Target) Primary energy consumption is to diminish (reference 2008) by: 18 % by % by % by % by 2050 Energy productivity should rise by 2.1 % a year compared to final energy consumption Renewable energy sources should achieve an 18 percent share of gross final energy consumption by 2020 and 60 percent by 2050 Moreover, by 2020 renewables should generate at least 35 percent of electricity consumption and 80 percent by 2050 Electricity consumption is to fall by 10 percent by 2020 and by 25 percent by 2050, compared to 2008 Heat demand in buildings must be reduced by 20 percent by

8 Consequences of the NPO Fuel Tax Legal problems 8

9 Import/Export - Variation Variation Export 22.3 TWh 25.8 TWh TWh 16% Import 11.4 TWh 5.0 TWh TWh 31% 9

10 Main problems posed by the Energiewende Refashioning the electricity grid Solving the electricity storage conundrum Dispersed power generation (smart meters) Redesigning energy market incentives Making up ground to hit efficiency targets Lifetime of solar and wind installations 10

11 Electrical Grid Last (but probably not least) cost appraisal: 3800 km new high voltage lines 4000 km refurbishing Total cost: 32 billions 11

12 Energy Storage Storage capacity: about 6 GW Installed capacity: about 110 GW 12

13 Renewables in the Energy Mix (electric) How much installed power? 13

14 Renewables: Installed Capacity Solar: 2011: 22,000 MW Wind: 2011: 29,000 MW 14

15 Renewables: Production Winter 2010/11 Winter 2011/12 Wind 2011:7.7 % (26% of the installed capacity) Solar 2011:3.1 % (20% of the installed capacity) Capacity factor: Wind ~30-35 %, Solar ~10-12 %, Nuclear ~ 90% 15

16 Lifetime Wind farms: 20 years Solar roof: 25 years Source: Fraunhofer Institut für Solare Energiesysteme: Studie Stromgestehungskosten Erneuerbare Energien,

17 Energiewende & Job Creation KfW Reconstruction Credit Institute Wing-Wing Strategy: Credit low rate Monthly installment VAT Enterprise Research & Development Energy efficiency: implementation of climate protection measures in buildings alone will create nearly 100,000 new jobs in Germany by This figure could even rise to over 350,000 by

18 Costs Increased energy efficiency: $20 b/yr x 9 yr = $180 billion Phase out 23 nuclear reactors and restore sites: $1 billion/reactor = $23 billion Plants to replace nuclear plants: 25,000 MW of $1,250,000/MW = $31.3 billion Wind turbines, offshore: (53, , existing) $4,000,000/MW = $212.6 billion Wind turbines, onshore: (27,900-27,204, existing) $2,000,000/MW = $1.4 billion Solar systems: (82,000-17,320, existing) $4,500,000/MW = $291 billion EEG feed-in tariff costs added to electric rates over 9 years $450.3 billion, less $142 billion revenue from sale of EEG energy (0.79% of total renewable energy): $308.3 billion (UMLAGE) Balancing plants: 25,000 MW of OCGTs and $1,250,000/MW = $31.3 billion Reorganizing the German grid and neighbor grids: $100 billion Biomass (incl. biogenic waste): 1,400 $3,000,000/MW = $4.2 billion JAPAN: 500 billion dollars 18

19 CONCLUSIONS The energy transformation in Germany is perceived not only as an element of protection of the natural environment but primarily as part of the state s economic and social policy In this sense the Energiewende is a new social deal to consolidate German society using this as a pivotal idea At the same time is a catalyst and stimulus for innovation, technological development and a new driving force of the German economy These goals would had been much easier to be achieved, should Germany had adopted an evolutionary approach to replacing its nuclear and conventional power plants with those based on renewable energy sources The chances of success for Energiewende can be improved by shifting the problem to the EU level. This has been admitted by German experts: if energy transformation in Germany is to be successful, it must be backed up with political initiatives at the EU level [ 19