1st RPN Working Meeting Large-scale penetration of low C policies: Opportunities and threats 3 October 2014 Athens, Greece The effect of RES on the electricity market Dimitris Lalas FACE 3 TS, S.A.
Ban-Ki Moon Climate Summit, NYC 23 Sept 2014 Climate change is a defining issue of our age, of our present. Our response will define our future. To ride this storm we need all hands on deck. That is why we are here today. We need a clear vision. The human, environmental and financial cost of climate change is fast becoming unbearable. We have never faced such a challenge, nor such an opportunity... Ban-Ki Moon Roland Busch, the chief executive of Siemens infrastructure group, declared that renewables simply hadn t advanced enough to replace coal and gas and the German multinational would continue to invest in fossils for the really long term. speaking at Climate Week in New York I must be frank with you: it has been very, very hard for us to make money in that [renewable energy] space. Our solar business we tried for 40 years to make solar work, and at the end of the day we just couldn t make money at it. About a year or two ago, we got out of it. But we still do have a very big biofuels business, particularly in Brazil. We have a very big R&D programme in biofuels. We have 16 wind farms across the country. So we are trying, but I must tell you it s a challenging environment to make money in. Geoff Morrell, US spokesman for BP, also speaking at Climate Week in New York
EU, Brussels 23 September 2014 1. Looks like the 27% total RES target will go ahead but with difficulty 2. Major reason losses on large companies EON, RWE, Iberdrola 3. The 30% for Energy Conservation is moving to 27% 4. The 40% GHG reduction not sure w/o national targets (some MS want single figures for themselves) 5. Pressure to accept credits outside ETS 6. Poland (with HU?) is rumored to want to postpone decision for later, maybe in 2015. 7. Pressure for energy unification
Economist, 26 July 2014: Sun, wind and drain
Daily German electricity demand & supply in August 2022 (Energeiwende- RES in electricity >35% & >50% by 2030)
RES production pushes the cost down (Merit Order Effect)
Diurnal variation of load is also involved
Danish electricity market prices with & w/o wind Wind Energy and Electricity Prices, POYRY EWEA, April 2010
Net gains of Merit Order Effect
The effect on the load duration curve
The (System) Levelized Cost of Electricity (slcoe) Ueckerdt et al., 2013
In LCOE analysis all costs should be counted: Wind energy 20/tCO2 Coal PP eff 38% No imp/exp DE 2011 8% Ueckerdt et al., 2013
Short term & long term effects Ueckerdt et al., 2013
MWh Daily wind energy production: Variable yes, stochastic? 1200 Day Ahead Forecast vs. Actual April 2014 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Day DNV-GH & Facets
Solar & wind full cost analysis: long term integration costs DE 2011 8% DE 2011 3,2% Ueckerdt et al., 2013
LCOE of different generating technologies in Germany 40-45% Fraunhofer Study, 2013 Carbon at 20/tCO2
LCOE of solar technologies in high irradiation areas Kost et al., Fraunhofer Study, 2013
Short term surplus wind penetration from 0 to 30% North-Western Europe i.e. DE, FR, NL,BE, PL Incumbent Producers Consumers Welfare ( /MWh) ( /MWh) ( /MWh) Nuclear rents -13 Electricity Market +28 Consumers +7 Coal rents -9 Heat Market -2 Producers -22 Gas rents -1 AS Market -0.1 Interconnectors -0.2 CO2 taxes NA Wind Subsidies -18 Producer Surplus -22 Consumer Surplus +7 Welfare Surplus -15 Hirth and Ueckerdt, FEEM 82/2012
Short term surplus carbon price change from 0 to 100/ton CO 2 North-Western Europe i.e. DE, FR, NL,BE, PL Incumbent Producers Consumers Welfare ( /MWh) ( /MWh) ( /MWh) Nuclear rents +21 Electricity Market -43 Consumers -29 Coal rents -10 Heat Market -6 Producers +12 Gas rents +0 AS Market -0 Interconnectors -0 CO 2 taxes +20 Wind Subsidies NA Producer Surplus +12 Consumer Surplus -29 Welfare Surplus -17 Hirth and Ueckerdt, FEEM 82/2012
Combined use of RES and Carbon price North-Western Europe i.e. DE, FR, NL,BE, PL Consumer Rent Producer Rent Economic Welfare ( /MWh) ( /MWh) ( /MWh) Existing (0% wind, 0 C price (51 /MWh electricity price) 30% wind penetration (43 /MWh electricity price) 100/Ton CO 2 carbon price (102 /MWh electricity price) Both (89 /MWh electricity price) 51 25 +7-22 -15-29 +12-17 -24 0-24 Hirth and Ueckerdt, FEEM 82/2012
The Cost-Benefit approach $50/tCO2 Coal PP eff 32,5% SC NG eff 31,5% Frank, Brookings 2014
Effect of carbon price gas electricity generation
The Cost-Benefit approach NG price sensitivity Nuclear PP Insurance? Decommissioning? Frank, Brookings 2014
Fraunhofer Study (Kost et al. ) input parameters
Technology Capex-Opex costs EU 2013 RES Technology Installation cost ( /kw) O & M cost ( /kw/year) Wind energy (land) 1021-2041 27-84 Small hydro 1350-7300 35-110 Solar thermal Geothermal Biomass Biogas from waste w/o storage 2100-6000 30-120 With storage 4850-8000 80-160 2-phase fluid flush cycle 1600-3200 56-115 Binary cycle 2600-4500 91-158 combustion 1000-3900 83-202 gasification 1900-3500 78-231 Fluidized bed combustion MEK 2000-3500 82-237 1000-3500 110-275
Latest basis for calculation Greek RAE RES Technology Installation cost ( /kw) O & M cost ( /kw/year) Capacity factor IRR Wind energy (land) 1200 47 25% 11.3% Small hydro (<15MW) 2000 50 36% 10.2% Solar thermal Geothermal w/o storage 3800 76 20% 6.5% with storage (<2 hours) 4800 96 30% 9.9% <90 o C 5000 163 70% 14..5% >90 o C 5000 163 80% 9.7% <1MW 3300 1543 90% 17% Biomass 1MW< and <5MW 3000 1403 90% 17.7% >5MW 2700 1263 90% 18.5% Biogas from waste >2MW 2300 874 75% 22.7%
The price of Carbon EC, US and Economist Dec 2013 EC 2014 SWD values 11-R35-53/tCO 2 US Social Cost of CO 2, 2015-2050 a (in 2011 Dollars) Year 5% Average 3% Average 3% 95 th per 2015 $12 $39 $116 2020 $13 $46 $137 2025 $15 $50 $153 2030 $17 $55 $170 2035 $20 $60 $187 2040 $22 $65 $204 2045 $26 $70 $220 2050 $28 $76 $235
Learning curve of RES technologies
Cost of solar modules, Bloomberg 2013 Dimitri Lalas lalas@facets.gr (Wind turbine cost down 29% since 2008) Commercial cost installed small PV ca $1.6/Wp, Feb 2014 Ca. $0.45 in 2017
Fossil Fuel Subsidies Germany 1.9B hard coal US $1B farmers, $1.5B oil reserves, $0.5B fossil fuel R&D UK UKP280M tax break OECD countries Total subsidies $55-90B/yr i.e. $7/ton CO2eq
12 salient features of Energiewende Agora Energiewende 2013
Concluding remarks Comparison studies need to be examined in detail and be well understood by policy makers. Wind and even solar are at or near grid price parity There are large uncertainties in the estimations that require caution. The use of RES and the imposition of carbon price has winners and losers and it is important to know who is who, and why. National & regional circumstances, RES potential, existing technologies and external factors (e.g. fossil fuel prices) will dictate the best combination of technologies to aim for. The design of a national LCE policy needs to take into consideration all elements (increased use and uncertainty of large scale RES technologies, increase in energy efficiency, electrification of final energy demand, shift from variable to fixed costs, shift from centralized to decentralized investments, infrastructure effectiveness, shift from goods to services) simultaneously The solution to the puzzle may not be optimal (in the economic sense).
And the World vision? On 22 September 2014, the World Bank released a Declaration, signed by 73 nations (including China) and over 1000 major companies including (Shell, Dow Chemical and Coca-Cola), which calls on all nations to enact laws forcing industries to set a price and pay for the carbon emissions that scientists say are the leading cause of global warming. We need to define a new economy of the world, President François Hollande of France said in his remarks at the climate summit. There will have to be a new pricing system for carbon.
Thank you for your attention Dimitri Lalas lalas@facets.gr
Energiewende design