Feedstock & Investment Strategies for Revitalising Europe WPC2017 Tom Crotty INEOS
INEOS Background A world scale producer of petrochemicals and polymers Turnover $54bn (2015) 18,600+ employees 105 manufacturing sites worldwide in 22 countries Asset value of $55 billion 60 million tonnes of chemicals capacity 20 million tonnes of refinery products (400,000 bbls/day) 8 million boe per annum of oil and gas
Turnover - USD Millions INEOS Growth 60,000 55,000 Over 20 acquisitions from blue chip companies including: BP, BASF, Bayer, Dow, ICI, NorskHydro, Solvay 54000 50,000 47400 47000 45,000 43600 43000 43000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 Acquired ICI s chemicals businesses Acquired BP s petrochemicals businesses 35500 28900 36200 10,000 5,000-9800 7400 4500 5400 5800 320 470 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 3 May 2015
INEOS A Global Company North America 22 sites: 12 mtes Grangemouth 11.9 mtes Runcorn 4.0 mtes Antwerp 2.4 mtes Rafnes 2.3 mtes Wilhelmshaven 1.0 mtes Köln 5.5 mtes Ruhr 1.4 mtes Europe 77 sites: 31.8 mtes Mobile 0.8 mtes South Houston 4.1 mtes Lavéra 11.0 mtes Asia 6 sites:
US Shale Gas
US Shale Gas Revolution Unlocking the Barnett led to rapid development in other US plays
The US Shale Revolution One shale basin in the US (the Marcellus) has grown from 1 bcf/d in 2007 to over 15 bcf/day today For comparison, total UK gas demand is 8 bcf/day
Sep-07 Feb-08 Jul-08 Dec-08 May-09 Oct-09 Mar-10 Aug-10 Jan-11 Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Gas Pricing US gas prices have disconnected from European and global markets due to infrastructure and regulatory constraints 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 HH (usd/mmbtu) NBP (USD/MMBTU) 0 Source UK NBP and Henry Hub wholesale prices
Influence of energy costs Fuel, Power Costs (% of total costs) for Selected Chemical Products Fuel-based inputs are significant in chemicals production most sectors >50% of total costs This has a major impact on the competitivity of the industry Other energy intensive industries are similarly impacted (eg, Refining, Iron and Steel, Glass, Cement, Paper) Source - American Chemistry Council
$/MT Impact on global chemicals economics US shale gas has been a game changer World Cost Curve: Ethylene (Price Basis = IHS, Cost Basis = Plant Gate, Product Basis = Ethylene 2000 1800 1600 2008 1400 1200 NEA WEP China 1000 NAM 800 US 600 400 200 MDE 0 Source: IHS Markit 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Cumulative Production - Million Metric Tons
$/MT Impact on global chemicals economics US shale gas has been a game changer World Cost Curve: Ethylene (Price Basis = IHS, Cost Basis = Plant Gate, Product Basis = Ethylene 2000 1800 1600 2008 1400 1200 NEA WEP 2012 China NEA WEP 1000 NAM China 800 US 600 400 MDE NAM US 200 MDE 0 Source: IHS Markit 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Cumulative Production - Million Metric Tons
US Chemical Industry response A long term threat to the European chemicals business >$140bn planned spend on chemical capacity to 2022 485,000 new jobs during construction, and over 500,000 new permanent jobs Adding $80-120bn in economic output Source: ACC 2012
Impact in the US: huge investment in Chemicals This is a long term threat to the European chemicals business US chemical industry capacity set to exceed Western Europe Market share will be captured from Europe Reshoring Initiative $140Bn of new chemical industry investment in the US to 2022
Natural Gas ($/MM BTU) Henry Hub Price Forecast NG to recover to $3-4/MM BTU with industrial & export demand Encourages production 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Production is economical increasing supply Switching to coal occurs & decreases demand Fuel switching away from coal increases demand Dry gas drilling production slows supply 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 $4/MM BTU $3/MM BTU Source: IHS Markit Forecast constant 2014 US$
What can European Petrochem manufacturers do? Rationalisation - closure of uneconomical sites - mergers There will be an impact, but we need to respond and mitigate the impact Performance improvement - Invest to improve cost of production - Concentrate on specific specialty sectors Access improved feedstock and energy costs - Import feedstocks - Produce shale gas locally
Shale Gas in Europe
The Ineos US Ethane Project 17
Rafnes (Norway) 600 ktonnes/y of ethylene capacity 140kt LDPE, 180kt PVC One of the few facilities worldwide that can import and crack LPG mixes New ethane tank built and imports commenced in May 2016 * pressurised
Grangemouth (UK) 700 kt/year of ethylene capacity 330 kt/year LLDPE 235 kt/year PP Flexible gas steam cracker New ethane import terminal & tank Commenced importing gas Sep 2016
Ethane: From regional to global sea borne traded commodity Pre 2016 From 2 nd Half 2016 From 2 nd Half 2016 Reliance (India) 21
Security of Supply: A major challenge for Europe
Bcm North Sea Gas Decline UK gas production decline 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: IHS Markit, BEIS 2017 IHS Markit
What can UK and EU shale production deliver? Utilise a national asset for national benefit - Exchequer revenue - Balance of payments - Wealth and job creation - Downward pressure on gas price - Security of supply Play a part in making European energy and feedstock prices competitive The very survival of the Chemicals industry and other energy intensive industries is at stake Source: BGS 2013
INEOS Licences
Seismic data acquisition Vibroseis trucks and receivers (geophones) Started 2016 2D Seismic image 3D Seismic image Tractor mounted drill
Drilling Rig Test drilling mid 2017
Hydraulic Fracture Spread
Production Site
Can we extract Shale Gas safely? The industry needs to win the general support of the public We ll never convince everyone But we must ensure that we don t kill the opportunity without proper scientific assessment of the facts There is much expert third party evidence that says we can develop this resource safely and without harm to the environment
INEOS will work with communities INEOS committed to working with and properly consulting host communities INEOS believes that host communities should share some of the benefits INEOS 6% offer Committed to industry agreed payments ( 100k / 20k) within that Details to be worked up over next year with host communities, industry partners, and local and national Governments
Community Benefits 6% of shale gas revenues* to homeowners, landowners & communities close to its wells Estimated that we will give away over 2.5 billion from our new UK shale gas business Those living in an INEOS shale gas community (100km square) would typically share 375 million** over the life of the project Home owners and land owners directly above the wells would share 4% of the revenue typically 250 million Shale gas communities living close to the wells would share 2% of the revenue, typically 125 million
Conclusions A West Virginia shale gas pad - drilling and production phases Gas needed in Europe for decades Home heating, industry and renewables back-up supply requires it CO2 emissions lower than coal a bridge to a lower carbon future? several Govt / Utiility scenarios assume gas demand static Shale gas can help..to supply the need replace imports? Industry jobs can be preserved..and others created Will be intensely regulated Community benefits we believe that local communities should share the benefits