Coal, Carbon, and the Future of the Global Energy Mix
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1 Coal, Carbon, and the Future of the Global Energy Mix By Richard Morse Woods Institute Energy Seminar March 4, 2009
2 Agenda 1. Background 2. Fundamentals of the Global Trade 3. Coal in the West: Impact of Carbon on Coal 4. China s Coal Market 5. Coal and CO 2 Mitigation 2
3 Coal under siege? Coal fired power stations are death factories. Close them. [ ] coal is the single greatest threat to civilization and all life on our planet. Dr. James Hansen of NASA If somebody wants to build a coal fired power plant they can, its just that it will bankrupt them because they are going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that s being emitted. Barack Obama to SF Chronicle Coal is my worst nightmare. Steve Chu (pre DOE) 3
4 Or coal renaissance? Coal is the world s fastest growing fossil fuel Mtoe Increase in primary demand, (IEA) 4.8% % = average annual rate of growth 100% Shares of incremental energy demand Reference Scenario, (IEA) Coal All other fuels % % % 2.6% 40% % 20% % Coal Oil Gas Renewables Nuclear 0% Non OECD OECD Source: IEA WEO 2008
5 Emissions from coal outpace all other energy sources Gigatonnes IEA Projection of Energy Related Emissions to International marine bunkers and aviation Non OECD gas Non OECD oil Non OECD coal OECD gas OECD oil OECD coal Source: IEA WEO 2008
6 Asia s massive growth of coal fired generation capacity Drivers Cheap cost of energy fuels development Energy security: wide distribution of reserves and suppliers Total: GW 20% realization = ~400 million tons of coal new demand annually Source: ABARE 6
7 PESD s work on coal Goal: How will country level political economy factors affect global patterns of coal production, trade, and use under different scenarios? Two Part Study: 1. Global Coal Trade Model (DIW Berlin) 2. Political Economy Case Studies 7
8 Agenda 1. Background 2. Fundamentals of the Global Trade 3. Coal in the West: Impact of Carbon on Coal 4. China s Coal Market 5. Coal and CO 2 Mitigation 8
9 Distribution of global reserves Ritschel, Schiffer
10 Steam coal trade has increased dramatically Overland Trade million metric tons Steam Coals Coking Coals Source: IEA Coal Statistics 10
11 The global market: trade flows Ritschel, Schiffer
12 Sep 03 Nov 03 Jan 04 Mar 04 May 04 Jul 04 Sep 04 Nov 04 Jan 05 Mar 05 May 05 Jul 05 Sep 05 Nov 05 Jan 06 Mar 06 May 06 Jul 06 Sep 06 Nov 06 Jan 07 Mar 07 May 07 Jul 07 Sep 07 Nov 07 Jan 08 Mar 08 May 08 Jul 08 Sep 08 Nov 08 Jan 09 Price formation is increasingly linked in the international market Europe Central Appalachia Richards Bay Newcastle Source: Reuters 12 $ / metric ton
13 Domestic markets are increasingly linked to international markets USD/ton Spot price of Qinghuangdao(QHD) and Newcastle QHD Newcastle Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Source: Newcastle data from Reuters; Qinhuangdao Data from CCTD converted with exchange rate data from NY Fed. Newcastle coals are 6700 kc/kg, QHD coals are 5800kc/kg 13
14 Agenda 1. Background 2. Fundamentals of the Global Trade 3. Coal in the West: Impact of Carbon on Coal a) Europe b) USA 4. China s Coal Market 5. Coal and CO 2 Mitigation 14
15 70 60 Power generation economics favor coal The German power market 70 Coal is More Profitable Carbon Starts to Close the Gap Dark 40 Clean Dark / MWh Spark / MWh Clean Spark Spark Dark Clean Spark Dark Source: Reuters 15
16 Carbon markets to EUA Futures Markets / ton Dec '12 Dec '11 10 Dec '10 Dec ' Post 2012? Source: Reuters, ECX NO REAL MARKET Huge policy uncertainty creates big risks for coal investment 16
17 Agenda 1. Background 2. Fundamentals of the Global Trade 3. Coal in the West: Impact of Carbon on Coal a) Europe b) USA 4. China s Coal Market 5. Coal and CO 2 Mitigation 17
18 Lurking cap and trade The risk is real but not much else Obama s budget assumes roughly $14 / ton in 2012 with full auctioning. 18
19 Political tolerance for carbon prices are likely to constrain carbon s impact on coal $55/ton Regional politics are likely to dictate the amount of carbon permits that are initially sold vs. given away for free (allocations vs. auctions) Source: PJM 19
20 Mass vs. EPA signals looming CO 2 regulation Regulation is being used to stop coal plant permitting and is likely to have a greater impact than carbon price signals for the foreseeable future. 20
21 The environmental movement poses a serious challenge to coal Source: Sierra Club Coal Campaign 21
22 Agenda 1. Background 2. Fundamentals of the Global Trade 3. Coal in the West: Impact of Carbon on Coal a) Europe b) USA 4. China s Coal Market 5. Coal and CO 2 Mitigation 22
23 Coal is Dominant Energy for China Hydro electric 6% Nuclear 2% Wind Others Nuclear Energy 1% Oil 20% Hydro 17% Natural Gas 3% Coal 70% Coal fired 81% 70% of China Primary Energy from Coal Source: 2007 data from China National Bureau of Statistics, % Electricity Generated by Coal Source: 2008 data from China Electricity Council 23
24 Uneven reform of the Chinese energy sector Aug 20: power creates erratic market behavior prices raised 60 July 1: power prices raised slightly slightly again Implied margin for power generators (excluding O&M) Beijing Power ($/MWh) Coal Cost ($/ MWh) Aug 20: export taxes on all coals 20 June 19: coal prices capped July 24: price cap reinforced 10 0 Jun 06 Jul 06 Aug 06 Sep 06 Oct 06 Nov 06 Dec 06 Jan 07 Feb 07 Mar 07 Apr 07 May 07 Jun 07 Jul 07 Aug 07 Sep 07 Oct 07 Nov 07 Dec 07 Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sources: McCloskey s, China NRDC 24
25 Agenda 1. Background 2. Fundamentals of the Global Trade 3. Coal in the West: Impact of Carbon on Coal 4. China s Coal Market 5. Coal and CO 2 Mitigation 25
26 The state of clean coal for power generation Vattenfall s 30 MW demo plant at Schwarze Pumpe, Germany 26
27 Efficiency gains represent huge mitigation potential in the near term CCS: Green Gen 400 MW demo plant to be fully operational by 2020 Efficiency investment may represent the greatest CO 2 mitigation potential in the near term Coal plant efficiency and emissions Source: IEA Clean Coal Center 27
28 Agenda 1. Background 2. Fundamentals of the Global Trade 3. Coal in the West: Impact of Carbon on Coal 4. China s Coal Market 5. Coal and CO 2 Mitigation Conclusions: 1. Large growth in coal demand ahead 2. Cap and trade has some impact in the West when carbon prices are strong, but regulation and policy risk could play a larger role in the near term 3. Asian development currently depends on coal 4. Need to understand China (and Asia s) coal markets and evaluate all possible mitigation options Contact: rkmorse@stanford.edu 28
29 US coal pricing Central App 29 $ / metric ton Sep 03 Nov 03 Jan 04 Mar 04 May 04 Jul 04 Sep 04 Nov 04 Jan 05 Mar 05 May 05 Jul 05 Sep 05 Nov 05 Jan 06 Mar 06 May 06 Jul 06 Sep 06 Nov 06 Jan 07 Mar 07 May 07 Jul 07 Sep 07 Nov 07 Jan 08 Mar 08 May 08 Jul 08 Sep 08 Nov 08 Jan 09 PRB Wyoming Source: Reuters Europe
30 Long term generation outlook: capacity shortage will need to be filled Source: RWE 30
31 Coal s carbon exposure is complex Key Cap and Trade Issues from Coal s Perspective Political tolerance for strong carbon prices? Will we reach a meaningful switching point? Customer First proposal AEP, Duke, Progress Energy, Southern Company back 100% free permits 31
32 Policy uncertainty is the biggest threat to investment in new coal capacity Carbon Post 2012: Indecision on Kyoto offset provisions, CER quantity and quality, EC favors tightening Long term prices could reach meaningful switching points Possible increase to from 20% to 30% Kyoto reduction target Coal Emissions Performance Standard? Renewables Threaten Coal Utilization Rates and Favor Gas: Renewables target 20% by 2020, could be exceeded (IEA 27%) Decreases coal utilization rates, creates uncertain economics Increasingly favors gas for balancing power 32
33 What we know about EU ETS beyond 2012: auctions vs. allocations EU ETS Phase III: 1. Regional discrepancies in the cost of emissions permits split coal economics Full auctioning in the West The East ramps up auctioning slowly, reaching full auctioning in Impacts: RWE cancels all coal plants in western Europe Are we seeing an East / West split for coal economics? Implications for US cap and trade? 33
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