Climate Change/Extreme Weather Vulnerability and Risk Assessment for Transportation Infrastructure in Dallas and Tarrant Counties Yekang Ko (School of Urban and Public Affairs) With Arne Winguth & Jun Hak Lee (Earth and Environmental Science) University of Texas at Arlington Climate Resilience and Adaptation Symposium, Feb. 6, 2015 1
Global Surface Temperature Change ( C ) 2 0 Historical records of climate: global surface temperature change 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G. K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J.,... & Midgley, B. M. (2013). IPCC, 2013: climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. 2
Business as usual Aggressive GHG mitigation Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G. K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J.,... & Midgley, B. M. (2013). IPCC, 2013: climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. 3
More Extreme Events: an increase in temperature mean and variance Field, C. B. (Ed.). (2012). Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation: special report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press. 4
The climate risk assessment methodology for DFW transportation infrastructure 2. Asset Inventory & Criticality 1. Climate Projection Climate projection 3. Transportation networks 5
1. Climate Projection 2. Asset Inventory & Criticality 1. Climate Projection 3. 6 6
Future climate projection Extreme temperatures of up to 125 F by the end of 21st century, exceeding historic heat waves by 12 F. By 2050, lower precipitation in particular during the summer season with a reduction in soil moisture by 10 15% compared to historical values. Higher likelihood of drought and amplified urban heat island, in particular during summer months Extreme flooding events, more tropical storms occurring in the fall season. Increase in severe thunderstorms and rainfall by up to 10% in the spring season 7
2. Asset Inventory & Criticality Assessment 2. Asset Inventory & Criticality 1. Climate Projection 3. 8
Projected growth of the DFW region from 2013 to 2035 Regional Performance Measures 2013 2035 % Change Population 6,778,201 9,833,378 45% Employment 4,292,516 6,177,016 44% Vehicle Miles of Travel 181,516,746 281,580,581 55% Hourly Capacity (Miles) 42,593,607 51,288,092 20% Vehicle Hours Spent in Delay (Daily) 1,165,512 2,489,440 114% Increase in Travel Time Due to Congestion 32.1% 44.9% 40% Annual Cost of Congestion (Billions) $4.7 $10.1 114% Source: Mobility 2035 plan (NCTCOG, 2013) 9
Asset Inventory & Criticality Assessment Assets Format Source Criticality Roads GIS NCTCOG AADT / number of lanes (2014 and 2035) Critical Bridges GIS NCTCOG AADT / number of lanes (2014 and 2035) Railroads (2014 and 2035) GIS NCTCOG, DART, TRE, The T Annual passenger ridership / line Airports (2007) GIS NCTCOG, Federal Aviation Administration Airport passenger boarding 10
2035 Roadways Criticality (AADT/# of lanes) 11
3. Risk and Vulnerability Assessment 2. Asset Inventory & Criticality 1. Climate Projection 3. 12
Risk assessment matrix for roadways to heat stress Risk = f (magnitude of consequences, likelihood of failure ) Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk 13
Critical roadways vulnerable to heat risks in Tarrant &Dallas Counties for the period 2091 2100. 14
Potential impacts to roadways due to higher temp. & extreme heat waves: Pavement rutting and migration of liquid asphalt Greater needs for road maintenance and pavement; more frequent lane closures for highway repairs Vehicle engine overheating and tire deterioration Higher crash rates linked to mechanical failures and heat strokes 15
Vulnerable roadways in Tarrant &Dallas Counties to severe precipitation (e.g. a 100 year flood) 16
Potential consequences of inland flooding on roadways : Affecting structural integrity of roads Erosions of road and bridge supports Disruption of traffic flows Higher crash rates Increased congestion Delays in evacuation and emergency response 17
Conclusion: Takeaways Risk & vulnerability assessment for prioritizing adaptation strategies Addressing costs of dealing with climate change/extreme weather events in the MPO s long range regional transportation planning Integrating regional green infrastructure / low impact development (LID) with transportation planning More aggressive actions for mitigating GHG emission at all levels 18
Thank you! Yekang Ko, Ph.D. Assistant Professor in Environmental Planning School of Urban and Public Affairs yekangko@uta.edu 19