SPP Emergency Operations: 2016 Summer Preparedness Workshop

SPP Emergency Operations: 2016 Summer Preparedness Workshop

AGENDA 9:00 9:15 Welcome.. CJ Brown 9:20 9:30 EOP Update Process... Kim Gorter 1. Review 2. Posting Red-line Version 3. Stakeholder Interaction 4. Transition to In-Use Version 9:35 9:55 Short Tem Reliability Unit Commitment (STRUC). Yasser Bahbaz 10:00 10:15 Wind Penetration in SPP.. Casey Cathey 10:20 10:45 Overview of EOP, Summer-Related Topics.. CJ Brown 1. Severe Weather Alerts 2. Conservative Operations 3. Energy Emergency Alerts 4. Notifications 10:50 11:45 EEA Scenarios Table Top Exercise CJ Brown 11:45 Noon General Q/A All

Session Objectives Understand updating and posting of the Emergency Operating Plan (EOP) Examine Wind Penetration in SPP s Footprint Outline Short Term Reliability Unit Commitment Process (STRUC) Relate segments of the EOP to Summer Preparedness Review the EEA levels through a table-top exercise Polling questions will be asked throughout the presentation so let s get started with one now!

Is everyone excited to participate today and make this our best workshop ever?

Emergency Operations Plan (EOP) Update Process --Kim Gorter

EOP Update Process BAOC receives redline version for review (14-days) Incorporate any changes and forward to Stakeholders (MWG, GECTF, RCWG, ORWG, and BAOC) for 14 day review Stakeholder changes are made and reviewed by BAOC with 2/3 majority required for final redline version Final redline version is posted with a Publish Date and adjacent BAs and RCs are notified. On Publish Date, IN USE version is created from the redline version.

EOP Update Process Latest password-protected version posted to: http://www.spp.org/documents/23244/spp%20ba%20emergency %20operating%20plan_v%204%205.pdf SPP.org/Documents/Operations/SPP Emergency Operations Plan Two versions posted: In Use Redline Contact your Customer Relations contact for the password.

Does the EOP update process allow enough time for review and input?

Short-Term Reliability Unit Commitment (STRUC) --Yasser Bahbaz

Short Term RUC - STRUC Runs every 15 minutes for 180 minutes window. 150 minute commitment period Committable window 30 minute near window (RTBM window) Not committable The intent of the study is to give intra hour granularity and more frequent evaluation of the system in terms of generation needed to commit.

STRUC Will, in the future, provide an enhancement to the Quick Start resources and how they are dispatched in real time. STRUC will be the study to indicate to RTBM whether a Quick Start qualified and registered resource should be dispatched by RTBM For now, Quick Start either opt-in or out of STRUC. Resources Opting-in will be committable by the study Resources Opting-out will not be committable by the study

Network Topology RTBM window State estimator topology Commit window Apply Outages on top of SE topology Restore the Outages which end in the intervals. Restore all Market Units not isolated by other equipment outages so that they are available for commitment by ST-RUC.

Unit Commitment Resources are committed based on, Ability to start within the study window Start Cost and No load Needed products qualification Existing commitments in COP are respected by STRUC Ability to recuperate cost in the desired commitment window 15 180 minutes Headroom STRUC Headroom = Hourly base headroom converted to quarters Example: 900MW Hourly requirement = 225MW STRUC Requirement from one 15-minute interval to the next

Product Clearing Energy: 15-minute ramp is used to dispatch resources within the study Regulation 5 minute ramp to clear Regulation Up and Down STRUC uses existing Regulation Selection and, May select additional qualified resources if not DESELECTED Spin/Supp 10-minute ramp is used to dispatch resources within the study

Constraint Management Previous RTBM Previous RUC Constraint Type STRUC Exists Doesn't Exist - Internal M2M - External M2M - Non-M2M RTBM for the Constraint Carry Forward Window. Nothing for other intervals. Doesn't Exist Exists - Internal M2M - External M2M - Non-M2M RUC Source Case for all matching intervals Exists Exists - Internal M2M MF in Previous RTBM but M2M in Previous RUC RTBM for all intervals Exists Exists - Internal M2M not MF External - External M2M - Non-M2M RTBM for the Constraint Carry Forward Window and RUC out of the Constraint Carry Forward Window

Resource Management State Non-committable Window Committable Window Not in COP for entire study and observed SCADA Not in COP for first few intervals and observed SCADA Echo SCADA MW if the resource is not in startup and shutdown window. Echo SCADA MW if the resource is not in startup and shutdown window. Fix at 0MW if the resource is not in startup/shutdown window. The resource is not committable by STRUC. Scenario 1: If the resource is not eligible for ST-RUC commitment (i.e. not flexible), then echo SCADA MW until the interval in which startup profile is applied for the future planned commitment. Scenario 2: If the resource is eligible for ST- RUC commitment (i.e. flexible) in intervals in which there is no planned COP, then ST-RUC can commit (or advance the future commitment) the resource. If STRUC decides not to change the commitment (due to economic reasons), then the resource is dispatched at 0MW till the interval in which the future planned commitment. There is no startup profile built in this case. In COP for the entire study but SCADA is 0 Fix at 0MW Fix at 0MW. The resource is not committable by STRUC. In COP for the first few intervals and SCADA is 0 and resource is committed again in STRUC window. Fix to 0MW Fix at 0MW in the intervals until next start. After that, follow COP and the resource is committable and dispatchable. In COP and submitted CMODE=3 Echo SCADA MW Follow COP and the resource is committable and dispatchable.

Commitment Expectations Intra hour blocks for short term ramp needs for Energy and Operating Reserves Control flowgates more reflective of near real time conditions Extending or early starting resources with commitments for congestion management or meet needed demand for market products Allow SPP operators to hold off commitments longer for resources that are flexible, based on start up times, until closer to real time to further ensure the need for the commitment.

Wind Penetration in SPP s Footprint --Casey Cathey

Annual Average Wind Speed 19

Wind Integration Study Overview Analyzed the SPP transmission area to determine what is required to reliably operate at higher penetration levels The study performed the following scenarios: 1. Steady-state thermal analysis 2. Steady-state voltage analysis 3. Voltage stability analysis 4. Re-dispatch analysis 5. Ramping analysis 20

Wind Generation in each Study Scenario 30 Generation by Fuel Type 25 GW 20 15 12.3 8.6 5.6 2.6 11.8 8.0 5.2 2.6 Hydro Combined Cycle Other ST Gas 10 5 2.6 7.2 2.6 10.8 14.4 2.6 7.2 2.6 10.8 14.3 ST Coal Nuclear Wind 0 30% Fall 45% Fall 60% Fall 30% Spring 45% Spring 60% Spring 21

Current MWs By Fuel Type Wind Totals 12980 MWs NDVER 6430 MWs DVER 6550 MWs Solar 190 MWs Nuclear 2635 MWs Natural Gas 35635 MWs Coal 28962 MWs Generic Coal 21071 MWs Lignite Coal 3006 MWs Subbituminous 4885 MWs Hydro 3427 MWs 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 12980 6430 6550 190 2635 35635 28962 MW's By Fuel Type Other Fuel Types (Oil, Agricultural Byproducts, Municipal Solid Waste) 1719 MWs 21071 3006 4885 3427 1719 22

Wind Capacity Installed by Year 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 14255.5 14795.5 12400 12980 8573 7427 7427 5256 4695 3858 3827 939 1565 1772 2038 2682 1855.5 2171 1275.5 518 859 540 80 1176 80 438 341 626 80 207 266 644 837 1146 561 540 0 580 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Wind Installed Wind Capacity Forecast of Remaining Wind to be Installed Year End Installed Wind Forecast Wind Forecasted Capacity 23

Wind Penetration vs Obligation: Summer 2015

Wind Integration Study 60% Wind Penetration Wind Output and Siting. 25

Wind Integration Study results The Steady-state thermal and voltage analysis confirms the need for approved ITP projects Additional transmission needs beyond what was approved in the ITP process was discovered Some approved ITP projects should be expedited and placed in-service sooner than the projects scheduled in-service date The Voltage stability analysis shows that renewable penetration levels are approaching current limits All N-1 constraints were resolved, albeit with substantial curtailments Ramping analysis indicates that in general, SPP has enough ramping capability to sustain 60% penetration 26

WIS - Voltage Stability Analysis The Spring operations model (Outages) 27

Wind Integration Study Redispatch Analysis Redispatched Wind Final Wind Curtailed Wind 60% Spring B 11,591 2,744 60% Spring 9,329 5,006 60% Fall B 11,526 2,912 60% Fall 9,780 4,659 45% Spring B 9,351 1,406 45% Spring 7,909 2,847 45% Fall B 9,440 1,389 45% Fall 7,785 3,043 30% Spring B 30% Spring 30% Fall B 30% Fall 6,850 7,023 7,052 7,069 318 145 168 150 0 2500 5000 7500 10000 12500 15000 28

Monthly Wind Penetration vs Load

2015 Final Destination of SPP Wind 100% Actual (delivered) Wind OOME (NDVER) Curtailments RTBM DVER Curtailments OOME (DVER) Curtailments 100% % of Potential Wind 99% 99% 98% 98% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Monthly Lost Wind vs Load

Wind Integration Study Phase II

2016 Variable-generation Integration Study ORWG and MOPC approved Scope is an expansion of Phase I reliability-based study elements with updated models and assumptions Additional scenarios in Phase II Transient Stability Analysis for the Spring MDWG 2017 outlook for the 30%, 45%, and 60% wind cases. Seasonal Voltage Stability Analysis 2017 and 2021 year outlook. Comparison between thermal and voltage to determine if Voltage Stability or thermal limitations are the most limiting. Operations and Planning sensitivity. Frequency Response Analysis for the spring MDWG 2017 outlook for the 30%, 45% and 60% wind cases. Targeted 5-minute analysis future ramping 5-year outlook. Expect results published prior to January MOPC

NDVER Turbine Capability

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NDVER Turbine Types Turbine Types 1 and 2 have no control functionality Turbine Types 3 and 4 do have control functionality Physically capable of providing voltage control, dispatch, real output, etc. More information on wind turbine types can be found at this link: http://power.eecs.utk.edu/pubs/fangxing_li_ieeep es2009_3.pdf

Plan For Summer Assessment Similar to 2015/2016 Winter Assessment Thermal and voltage analysis June 1 st through September 30 th 2 models per week with outages Sunday & Wednesday Additional sensitivities as time permits Single Seasonal Model Includes all outages lasting longer than designated time threshold Used by other ISO/RTO Transfer Limit Analysis Major corridors PV Screening/Analysis Test only a few incremental transfer points Worst violation limits studied in more detail Loss of major gas pipeline Additional contingencies in N-1 analysis

Operations Season Assessment Task Force Updating our process going forward How often? What sensitives? Initial input by members? Feedback/result mitigation by members?

What are the primary reliability concerns we must prepare for with more non-synchronous generation and less conventional generation?

Emergency Operating Plan (EOP) Overview

Types of Alerts In order of severity: Severe Weather Alert Conservative Operations Notification Energy Emergency Alert (EEA) (EEA1, EEA2, EEA 3) Image: web.distran.com

Goal of Alert System SPP s Alert System Provides SPP timely info: For evaluation Not readily available via other methods Provides stakeholders ways to heighten awareness and provide direction

Which season tends to affect your operations the most?

Severe Weather Alerts Section 9.2

Severe (Hot) Weather Pattern Weather forecasts identify increased likelihood of extreme heat in the SPP BA Studies indicate normal operations should not lead to insufficient BA capacity for affected period

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Do you have a plan for updating your resource offers based upon anticipated fuel supply issues for the upcoming season?

Conservative Operations Section 9.1

Condition Indications Potential for: Stranded capacity due to transmission outages Unexpected resource outages Forward-looking studies indicate normal operations could likely lead to increased risk of sufficient BA capacity for affected period Image: mrtremblaycambridge.weebly.com

Conservative Operations Assess situation Determine need to enter into Conservative Operations Issue notification to MPs

SPP Actions SPP will identify: Period in which situation is expected to last Expected MP actions

Conservative Operations Conditions are such, or expected to be such, that some extraordinary measures may be necessary to maintain RELIABLE operations KEEP GOING UPDATE! EARLY committal of Resources BRIDGING of Resources Delay/Postpone Outages (if possible) Additional UPDATES (as needed)

Conservative Operations Environment in which SPP is operating to/with: A. Conservative transfer limits values B. Selected double-contingencies C. Greater unit commitment notification timeframes D. Increased Operating Reserve requirements E. Increased reliability Margin F. Timely coordination calls

MP Actions Resource Offers cannot reflect some conditions SPP needs to know

What fuel types are most vulnerable to supply issues in your area?

Conservative Operations Alert Who gets Alerts? MP email list Generation Operator (GOP) RC email list TOP RC email list Neighboring BAs and RCs

Conservative Operations Alert Mechanisms for Alerts Emails Markets UI posting OASIS posting RCIS posting

Have you updated your internal procedures to reflect any potential Conservative Operations conditions communicated by SPP?

Resource Load Energy Emergency Alerts (EEAs) Section 6.3

Energy Emergency Alerts (EEA) FORESEE not being able to maintain reserves Cannot MAINTAIN reserves Cannot MEET customer Load obligations

Stakeholder Communication Methods Section 4.7.1 CALL appropriate SPP Operations Desk EMAIL shiftsupervisor desk@spp.org Update CROW with outages /de-rates Notification via ICCP Update Markets User Interface (UI) / API Participate in Monthly Reliability Call(on request; TOPs only)

Other Notifications Reliability Coordinator Information System (RCIS) for RC notices Subscribe to follow notifications

SPP Contact Information: All Desks 501-614-3900 Option 1: Reliability Option 2: Balancing Option 3: Tariff/Interchange Option 4: Real Time Markets (RTBM/GDO) Option 5: Reliability Unit Commitment (RUC) Option 6: Day Ahead Market Option 7: Shift Engineer Option 8: Shift Supervisor

Are you confident SPP has your correct contact information for each notification/alert?

EEA Scenarios Table Top Exercise

Energy Emergency Alert 1 If declared, SPP BA will: Identify and curtail non-firm sales Commit all available Resources Identify outages that can be postponed/delayed

Energy Emergency Alert 2 In EEA 2, SPP BA will: Notify MPs of imposition of emergency ratings on Resources Utilize Other Extreme Conditions (OEC) to get Reserve Sharing Group (RSG) assistance Put all available generation on-line

Energy Emergency Alert 2 Prepare for potential load shedding Curtail non-firm sales Implement plan for curtailable/interruptible loads

Emergency Energy Alert 3 In EEA 3, SPP BA could: Direct Transmission Operators (TOPs) to implement load shedding plans

Load Shed Steps Determine need to Shed Load Calculate MW Load Shed values SPP BA SPP BA Send Emails Initiate Blast Call Initiate Individual Load Shed Directives Perform final Blast Call when Load Shed complete Report back to BA amount shed TOPs

Would you like to coordinate your capacity and Energy Emergency training with SPP Operations training staff in the future?

Questions Anyone?