Global trends shaping future shipping INTERTANKO Meeting Houston 18 th October 2016 Paal Johansen, Executive Vice President and Regional Director DNV GL - Maritime Americas 1 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER
On the agenda Global challenges Future trends 2
Global Challenges 3
GLOBAL CHALLENGES What we are dealing with today Very tough market environment for all segments. Contraction in business volume is expected to last throughout 2017 and into 2018. Shipping outlook Offshore outlook Crude, Product & LPG New contracts 2012-2016 (no. of vessels) NEGATIVE NEGATIVE Container & Dry bulk Low freight rates China slowdown Drilling & Offshore Service Cruise Cruise 4 Source: IHS Fairplay DB
GLOBAL CHALLENGES The industry drivers of the future WORLD ECONOMY & TRADE Slower Growth ASIA & CHINA Growing importance for trade & shipping REGULATION More complex ENVIRONMENT & SAFETY Higher expectations TECHNOLOGY Moving towards digitalization SHIPPING UNDER PRESSURE Challenging markets OFFSHORE UNDER PRESSURE Drop in oil price COMPETITION Remaining fierce (Source: IEA) 5
Future Trends 6
Industry consolidation Increased consolidation expected in all parts of the industry - amongst ship owners, yards, classification societies, terminal operators etc. 7
Asia s growing impact The centre of gravity of the world economy will shift to Central Asia. Developed nations will be driven to further specialize and diversify to stay competitive. 8
Stricter environmental requirements Regulatory and societal pressure will continue to encourage shipping to lower its environmental impact, resulting in more efficient designs and operations. Emission Control Areas Ballast Water Treatment CO2 Monitoring, Reporting, Verification Ship Recycling EEDI 9
The biggest change will be the way ships are powered In future, shipping will see a broader range of fuels and propulsion solutions: e.g. dual-fuel engines, LNG, ethane, renewable biofuels, batteries, fuel cells 10
The Connected Ship Worldwide coverage satellite communication Internet of all things Real-time sensor condition monitoring Software algorithms to handle large amounts of data Smart maintenance Automation and remote operations 11
Connectivity between ship and shore will vastly improve Shipping will become a data-centric industry More ships will be connected to the internet via broadband satellite networks On-board systems are being integrated, automated and controlled through software 12
Communications & data analysis will improve logistics operations Data analytics and fleet performance management to advise on navigation, weather patterns, fuel consumption, port arrival reduce the risks of human error leading to accidents increase cost efficiency improve environmental performance 13
Cloud technologies to change the way we manage information Transparency & sharing needed to make the most of the ever-growing data sets shipping has to move towards New cloud technologies will emerge, e.g. big data platforms and digital twin technology The digital twin allows any aspect of an asset to be explored through a digital interface, including layout, design specifications, simulation models, data analytics 14
Other emerging trends in shipping Other emerging trends and potential game changers in shipping albeit expected to have limited impact in the next 10 years. Unmanned vessels* 3D printing Uber for shipping * ReVolt is DNV GL s revolutionary concept for an unmanned, zero-emission, shortsea vessel. 15
Conclusion Shipping is undergoing a SEVERE TRANSFORMATION. The technology INTERUPTERS and FAST ADAPTERS will be the new winners. CLASS will play a CRUCIAL role in partnerships with the industry, leveraging digital solutions for a SAFER, SMARTER and more SUSTAINABLE future. 16
Thank you for your attention! paal.johansen@dnvgl.com www.dnvgl.com SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER 17