Clean Sky 2 Joint Undertaking 5 th Call for Proposals (CFP05): List and full description of Topics Call Text - November 2016 - The present preliminary version of the Call Text is released for information and addressed to any interested party prior to the official launch of the Call anticipated end of November 2016. The final call text document serving as the foundation for any application to this Call will be published via the H2020 Participant Portal. The content is a non-legally binding preliminary version and may still be subject to modifications until its official publication.
Revision History Table Version n Issue Date Reason for change PP0 27/10/2016 Pre Publication of the preliminary version of the Call text [via the CSJU Website] Important notice on Q&As Question and Answers will open as from 28 th November 2016. In case of questions on the Call (either administrative or technical), applicants are invited to contact the JU using the dedicated Call functional mailbox: [email to be inserted] Note that questions received up until 12 th January 2017, 17:00 (Brussels Time) will be answered after analysis and published in Q&A when appropriate. In total, two publications of Q/As are foreseen: 20 th December 2016 and 24 th January 2017 (estimated dates). The Q/As will made available via the Participant Portal of the European Commission. 2
Index 1. Clean Sky 2 Technology Evaluator... 5 I. Airport Level Assessment (Fixed-wing)... 5 II. Airport and ATS Level Assessment (Rotorcraft)... 10 III. ATS Level Business Jet 2035 forecast... 16 IV. ATS Level Rotorcraft 2035 forecast... 21 V. ATS Level SAT 2035 forecast... 26 3
List of Topics for Calls for Partners (CFP05) Identification Code Title Type of Action JTI-CS2-2016-CFP05-TE2-01-01 JTI-CS2-2016-CFP05-TE2-01-02 JTI-CS2-2016-CFP05-TE2-01-03 JTI-CS2-2016-CFP05-TE2-01-04 JTI-CS2-2016-CFP05-TE2-01-05 TOTAL JTI-CS2-2016- CFP05-TE2 Ind. Value (Funding in M ) Topic Leader Airport Level Assessment (Fixed-wing) RIA 0,550 DLR Airport and ATS Level Assessment (Rotorcraft) RIA 0,550 DLR ATS Level business jet 2035 forecast CSA 0,120 DLR ATS Level Rotorcraft 2035 forecast CSA 0,150 DLR ATS Level SAT 2035 forecast CSA 0,150 DLR 5 topics 1,52 4
1. Clean Sky 2 Technology Evaluator I. Airport Level Assessment (Fixed-wing) Type of action (RIA/IA/CSA) Programme Area Joint Technical Programme (JTP V5) Ref. RIA TE WP4 TE airport impact assessments: aircraft Indicative Funding Topic Value (in k ) 550 Topic Manager DLR Type of Agreement Cooperation Agreement Duration of the action (in Months) 48 Indicative Start Date 1 Q4 2017 Identification JTI-CS2-2016-CFP05-TE2-01-01 Title Airport Level Assessment (Fixed-wing) Short description (3 lines) This topic consists of performing airport level assessments. These comprise the simulation of airport air traffic applying operational aircraft fleet / traffic scenarios, as well as the definition of a set of airports and noise / emissions modelling and quantification at these airports. 1 The start date corresponds to actual start date with all legal documents in place. 5
1. Background Cross-positioned within the Clean Sky 2 Programme, the Technology Evaluator (TE) is a dedicated evaluation platform. It has the key role of assessing the environmental impact of the technologies developed in Clean Sky 2 and their level of success towards well-defined environmental (noise, CO 2, NO x ) and societal benefits and targets. These technologies are developed by the IADPs (Innovative Aircraft Demonstrator Platforms) and ITDs (Integrated Technology Demonstrator projects) and clustered in coherent and mutually compatible solution sets, defining concept aircrafts. TE will conduct assessments on the various concept aircrafts at three levels: Aircraft level A Clean Sky 2 concept aircraft and its reference technology aircraft 2 is compared along the same trajectory in order to determine the environmental benefit of the Clean Sky 2 technologies, namely noise on ground and emissions (CO 2 and NO X ). Airport level A Clean Sky 2 concept aircraft replaces its reference technology counterpart at different time scales (2015/2020/2035/2050) in terms of airport traffic scenarios. The purpose of this replacement approach is to evaluate the full potential of environmental benefits of Clean Sky 2 technologies to an airport area, namely noise on the ground and population impacted by certain noise levels and emissions (CO 2 and NO x ). Air transport system (ATS) level Similarly to airport level, a Clean Sky 2 concept aircraft replaces its reference technology counterpart at different time scales (2015/2020/2035/2050) in terms of airport traffic scenarios. However, in this case the impact is measured at worldwide level. Work package 4 of TE will focus on airport level assessments for aircraft applications based on scenarios defined by the Topic Manager in agreement with the relevant Clean Sky 2 Members. This call will address this work package, which will be coordinated by the Partner. 2. Scope of work In this exercise, the Partner will be provided by the Topic Manager, in agreement with the relevant Clean Sky 2 Members, with the models for: Long range aircraft and their reference Short and Medium Range aircraft and their reference 2 The reference technology aircraft is the current state-of-the-art in 2015. 6
Regional aircraft and their reference Business jet aircraft and their reference The airport impact assessments comprise: 1) environmental impact, including noise on the ground and population impacted by certain noise levels emissions (CO 2 and NO x ), including contribution to local air quality other type of environmental assessments could be included upon further discussion with the Topic Manager and the relevant Clean Sky 2 Members. All airport level assessments are carried out in the frame of WP4 for aircraft traffic at and around airports (table1 and 2). Airport level assessments address the air traffic movements from aircraft at and around airports, including local airspace (e.g., control zones and terminal manoeuvring areas). Within a given airport fleet the Clean Sky 2 concept aircrafts environmental impact is assessed covering a wide range of air traffic from business jet, regional, short/medium range and long range aircraft. After insertion of Clean Sky 2 concept aircrafts in a number of airport fleets according to flight schedules provided by the topic manager, the assessments will quantify the Clean Sky 2 benefits in terms of environmental impacts but also including capacity and time efficiency. In summary the work will cover: 1) selection of a set of airports 2) simulation of airport aircraft traffic scenarios with adequate tools 3) quantification of Clean Sky 2 environmental benefits Table 1 lists the tasks to be performed: Tasks Ref. No. Title description Indicative Date WP 4.1 Selection of airports and traffic Scenarios Selection of a representative set of airports which will be used for the assessments. They will cover all airport types from regional to hubs. When available generic airport can also be used The topic manager will provide the partner with flight schedules for the selected airports T0+6 WP 4.3 Airport assessments (aircraft traffic) Based on flight schedules provided by the topic manager performance of airport aircraft fast time traffic simulation for the selected airports in WP4.1. The simulations will be based on real flight procedures at T0+42 7
Tasks Ref. No. Title description Indicative Date these airports. Based on the fast time traffic simulations quantification of Clean Sky 2 environmental benefits for the selected airports in WP4.1 Higher aggregated noise footprint calculations covering all major European airports (about 50) making use of statistical runway usage data for these airports. The topic manager will provide the partner with this data. 3. Major deliverables/ Milestones and schedule (estimate) Table 2 lists the deliverables to be performed: Deliverables Ref. No. Title Description Type Due Date D 4.3.1 airport aircraft traffic simulation Simulation results D 4.3.2 quantification of the Clean Sky 2 environmental benefits for the selected airports with fast time traffic simulation in WP4.1 D 4.3.3 D 4.4 quantification of the Clean Sky 2 noise benefits by calculation of airport noise footprints covering all major European airports at higher aggregated level in WP4.3 Final Report with the analysis and the results at airport level for aircraft traffic including dissemination/communication Report T0+18; T0+36 T0+24; T0+42 Report T0+24 Report T0+48 Milestones (when appropriate) Ref. No. Title Description Type Due Date M1 TE assessment Overall TE assessment results at airport level for aircraft traffic T0+48 8
4. Special skills, Capabilities, Certification expected from the Applicant(s) University/Public Research Organisation shall act as coordinator of the proposal Extensive expertise and experience in the application of Fast-Time simulation tools for airport air traffic optimization used in the context of Departure and Approach simulations as well as Airport Ground Movements studies Extensive expertise and experience in the application of airport noise modelling tools - compliant with the best practice modelling guidance provided by both ECAC Doc.29 3rd Edition and ICAO Document 9911 including the simulation of noise exposure to populations around given airports Extensive expertise and experience in the simulation of emissions calculations in the wide vicinity of airports Extensive expertise and experience in the modelling and simulation of noise for assessing noise experience (including capability enabling the experience of noise of aircraft flyovers in virtual reality environment), and capability to interactively provide insight in airport traffic and environmental impacts (serious gaming) Extensive expertise and experience in the definition of future airport aircraft traffic (development) scenarios Profound knowledge in aircraft noise and emissions modelling Profound knowledge in airport categorizations Profound knowledge in operational scenario modelling for aircraft fleet applications at large (and complex) airports, including TMA operations Profound knowledge in simulation platforms to perform integrated airport impact assessments (e.g. trade-off studies and optimization) in an integrated way and at different levels of detail (e.g. ranging from key performance indicators to detailed impact results) Expert knowledge of seamless coupling of free-to-choose models and of automated workflows in a web-based simulation environment Established track record including: Expert team, International research calibre, working with industry and previous participation in large EU Programs, 9
II. Airport and ATS Level Assessment (Rotorcraft) Type of action (RIA/IA /CSA) Programme Area RIA TE Joint Technical Programme (JTP V5) Ref. Indicative Funding Topic Value (in k ) 550 WP4: Airport impact assessment for fast rotorcraft WP5: ATS impact assessment for fast rotorcraft Topic Manager DLR Type of Agreement Cooperation Agreement Duration of the action (in Months) 48 Indicative Start Date 3 Q4 2017 Identification JTI-CS2-2016-CFP05-TE2-01-02 Title Airport and ATS Level Assessment (Rotorcraft) Short description (3 lines) This topic consists of performing Airport and Air Transport System (ATS) impact assessments for fast rotorcraft applications. These comprise the simulation of fast rotorcraft fleet and traffic scenarios at airport/heliport, city and world regions for various missions. 3 The start date corresponds to actual start date with all legal documents in place. 10
1. Background Cross-positioned within the Clean Sky 2 Programme, the Technology Evaluator (TE) is a dedicated evaluation platform. It has the key role of assessing the environmental impact of the technologies developed in Clean Sky 2 and their level of success towards well-defined environmental (noise, CO 2, NO x ) and societal benefits and targets. These technologies are developed by the IADPs (Innovative Aircraft Demonstrator Platforms) and ITDs (Integrated Technology Demonstrator projects) and clustered in coherent and mutually compatible solution sets, defining concept aircrafts. TE will conduct assessments on the various concept aircrafts at three levels: Aircraft level A Clean Sky 2 concept aircraft and its reference technology aircraft 4 is compared along the same trajectory in order to determine the environmental benefit of the Clean Sky 2 technologies, namely noise on ground and emissions (CO 2 and NO X ). Airport level A Clean Sky 2 concept aircraft replaces its reference technology counterpart at different time scales (2015/2020/2035/2050) in terms of airport traffic scenarios. The purpose of this replacement approach is to evaluate the full potential of environmental benefits of Clean Sky 2 technologies to an airport area, namely noise on the ground and population impacted by certain noise levels and emissions (CO 2 and NO x ). Air transport system (ATS) level Similarly to airport level, a Clean Sky 2 concept aircraft replaces its reference technology counterpart at different time scales (2015/2020/2035/2050) in terms of airport traffic scenarios. However, in this case the impact is measured at worldwide level. Within the perimeter of this call the airport and ATS impact assessments are addressed. The Partner shall perform airport (TE Work Package 4) and ATS (TE Work Package 5) assessments for fast rotorcraft applications based on traffic scenarios provided by the Topic Manager in agreement with the relevant Clean Sky 2 Members. 2. Scope of work In this exercise, the Partner will be provided by the Topic Manager, in agreement with the relevant Clean Sky 2 Members, with the models for: - Tiltrotor and its reference - Compound and its reference 4 The reference technology aircraft is the current state-of-the-art in 2015. 11
Regarding the mission types, it includes: - Passenger transport - Emergency and medical services (EMS) - Search and rescue (S&R) - Oil and gas (O&G) Other missions could be included upon further discussion with the Topic Manager and the relevant Clean Sky 2 Members. The airport impact assessments comprise: 1) environmental impact, including - noise on the ground and population impacted by certain noise levels - emissions (CO 2 and NO x ) Due to the nature fast rotorcraft vehicles, the airport notion includes heliports and city locations. Henceforth, when airport is written, it should be understood as airport/heliport and city locations. The Air Transport System (ATS) impact assessments, it means: 1) environmental impact, including - noise on the ground and population impacted by certain noise levels - emissions (CO 2 and NO x ) - other type of environmental assessments could be included upon further discussion with the Topic Manager and the relevant Clean Sky 2 Members. 2) mobility impact, namely - connectivity - productivity improvements All rotorcraft assessments are carried out in the frame of WP4 for rotorcraft traffic at airport level and in the frame of WP5 for rotorcraft traffic in world regions (See table 1 and 2). Table1 lists the tasks to be performed: Tasks Ref. No. Title description Indicative Date WP 4.1 Airport Traffic Scenarios The Topic Manager in agreement with the Clean Sky 2 Members will provide the Partner with the number of T0+6 12
Tasks Ref. No. Title description Indicative Date movements/flight schedule for selected locations (see WP4.2) and then the Partner will define and calculate all trajectories flown by these fleets using also appropriate own models where needed. WP 4.2 WP 5.1 Airport assessments The Partner in agreement with the Topic Manager and the relevant Clean Sky 2 Members will select several locations to carry out these assessments in terms of environmental impact as mentioned above. ATS Traffic Scenarios The Topic Manager in agreement with the relevant Clean Sky 2 Members will provide the Partner with the fleet flight schedules for selected world regions and then the Partner define and calculate all trajectories flown by these fleets using also appropriate own models where needed. T0+42 T0+8; T0+18; T0+36 WP 5.3 ATS assessments The Partner will carry out the assessments for environmental and mobility impacts for the fleets as defined in WP5.1 for all mission types Table 1: TE work packages covering rotorcraft traffic assessments T0+12; T0+24; T0+42 3. Major deliverables/ Milestones and schedule (estimate) Table2 lists the deliverables to be performed: Deliverables Ref. No. Title Description Type Indicative Date D 4.1. Generation of fast rotorcraft traffic scenarios for airport level for all mission types Report T0+6; D 4.2 Quantification for the traffic scenarios in WP 4.1 of Clean Sky 2 benefits with Simulation results and T0+12; T0+24; 13
Deliverables Ref. No. Title Description Type Indicative Date D 4.4 respect to environmental impacts Report with the analysis and the final results of the simulation at airport level D 5.3 Quantification of the Clean Sky 2 benefits for world regions fleet scenarios in terms of environmental and mobility D 5.4 Report with the analysis and the final results of the simulation at ATS level intermediate reports T0+42 Final report T0+48 Simulation results and intermediate reports T0+12; T0+24; T0+42 Final report T0+48 Milestones (when appropriate) Ref. No. Title Description Type Due Date M1 TE assessment Overall TE assessment results for rotorcraft fleets at airport level M2 TE assessment Overall TE assessment results for rotorcraft fleets in world regions T0+48 T0+48 4. Special skills, Capabilities, Certification expected from the Applicant(s) University/Public Research Organisation shall act as coordinator of the proposal Extensive expertise in the application of rotorcraft noise, emissions and performance tools Extensive expertise in rotorcraft noise, emissions and performance modelling including: o Ability to model a range of rotorcraft airframes: Conventional helicopters, Tilt-rotor, Compound with propellers/ducted fans, Co-axial o Ability to model a range of rotorcraft power plants: conventional and advanced configurations o Expertise in the development of comprehensive, highly integrated, multi-disciplinary simulation frameworks for rotorcraft: Non-linear structural dynamics, 3D rotor dynamics, Unsteady non-linear wake and blade aerodynamics, Aeroelasticity, Flight dynamics (trim, stability and control), Real time flight simulation, Power plant performance, Gaseous emissions, Noise, 4D trajectory analysis, Rotorcraft systems o Expertise in the multi-disciplinary design of integrated rotorcraft/power plant systems 14
Profound knowledge in operational scenario modelling for rotorcraft fleet applications at airport level and world regions for all mission types. Established track record including: Expert team, International research calibre, Working with industry and previous participation in large EU Programs, ability to manage large work packages at EU level 15
III. ATS Level Business Jet 2035 forecast Type of action (RIA/IA /CSA) Programme Area Joint Technical Programme (JTP V5) Ref. CSA TE WP5.1 TE ATS level 2035 forecast: bizjet Indicative Funding Topic Value (in k ) 120 Topic Manager DLR Type of Implementation Cooperation Agreement Duration of the action (in Months) 12 Indicative Start Date 5 Q4 2017 Identification JTI-CS2-2016-CFP05-TE2-01-03 Title ATS Level business jet 2035 forecast Short description This topic consists of performing a forecast for bizjet fleet and movements starting from 2015, passing by 2020/2025/2030 until 2035. This forecast should detail at country/region/world levels. 5 The start date corresponds to actual start date with all legal documents in place. 16
1. Specific challenge Cross-positioned within the Clean Sky Programme, the Technology Evaluator (TE) is a dedicated evaluation platform. It has the key role of assessing the environmental impact of the technologies developed in Clean Sky 2 and their level of success towards well defined environmental (Noise, CO 2, NO x ) and societal benefits and targets. These technologies are developed by the IADPs (Innovative Aircraft Demonstrator Platforms) and ITDs (Integrated Technology Demonstrator projects) and clustered in coherent and mutually compatible solution sets, defining concept aircrafts. TE will conduct assessments on the various concept aircrafts at three levels: Aircraft level A Clean Sky 2 concept aircraft and its reference technology aircraft 6 is compared along the same trajectory in order to determine the environmental benefit of the Clean Sky 2 technologies, namely noise on ground and emissions (CO 2 and NO X ). Airport level A Clean Sky 2 concept aircraft replaces its reference technology counterpart at different time scales (2015/2020/2035/2050) in terms of airport traffic scenarios. The purpose of this replacement approach is to evaluate the full potential of environmental benefits of Clean Sky 2 technologies to an airport area, namely noise on the ground and population impacted by certain noise levels and emissions (CO 2 and NO x ). Air transport system (ATS) level Similarly to airport level, a Clean Sky 2 concept aircraft replaces its reference technology counterpart at different time scales (2015/2020/2035/2050) in terms of airport traffic scenarios. However, in this case the impact is measured at worldwide level. This call partially addresses the ATS level for business jets by concentrating on a forecast for all types of bizjets and movements starting from 2015, passing by 2020/2025/2030 until 2035 as input for environmental, economic and connectivity assessments. 2. Scope The forecast will be developed in the following steps: a) Review of available bizjet forecasts The Partner should compare the various available forecasts in terms of assumptions, data sources, relevance of drivers and variables. In addition, the Partner should draft a clear and concise comparison, highlighting the most relevant existing statistical and information gaps. 6 The reference technology aircraft is the current state-of-the-art in 2015. 17
b) Fine-tuning of the forecasting approach The Partner should agree with the Topic Manager which approach should be selected to pursue the forecasting, including the assumptions, drivers and especially market potentials targeted by other vehicles. The forecast should focus on passenger transport and provide results on expected movements between airports in terms of number of trips, average journey times and average distances. Based on known airports this implies to identify drivers for extrapolation of growth and for the distribution of flights. The Partner should use the expected GDP growth figures from Global Insight. In this exercise, the Partner will be provided by the Topic Manager, in agreement with the relevant Clean Sky 2 Members, with the following variables: - expected population growth - operational and technological parameters (travel time, costs, etc.) When data is lacking for certain variables, the Partner should provide an approach to fill the gaps, which will be discussed and agreed with the Topic Manager and the relevant Clean Sky 2 Members. c) Production of forecast The forecast shall start with 2015 based on available data. The forecast should quantify fleet and movements for the years 2020, 2025, 2030 and 2035 and should be carried out at country/region/world levels. Please find below the indicative schedule: - Month 2 Kick-off meeting (1 day) in Brussels The meeting will be organised by the Topic Manager. The Partner should present to the Topic Manager and relevant Clean Sky 2 Members the comparison of the various available forecasts in terms of assumptions, data sources, and relevance of drivers and variables, highlighting the most relevant existing statistical and information gaps. In addition, the Partner should put forward for discussion a proposal on the approach to fill the statistical and information gaps. - Month 4 Submission to the JU of the first report This report should contain in detail: o summary of the discussions during the kick-off meeting with the Topic Manager and relevant Clean Sky 2 Members 18
o comparison of the various available forecasts in terms of assumptions, data sources, and relevance of drivers and variables, highlighting the most relevant existing statistical and information gaps. o defined approach to fill the statistical and information gaps - Month 8 Intermediate meeting I (1 day) in Brussels The meeting will be organised by the Topic Manager. The Partner should present to the Topic Manager and relevant Clean Sky 2 Members the first forecast results. - Month 9 - Submission to the JU of the draft final report This report should contain in detail the first forecast results, including the remarks made during Intermediate meeting I. - Month 10 Intermediate meeting II (1 day) in Brussels The meeting will be organised by the Topic Manager. The Partner should present to the Topic Manager and relevant Clean Sky 2 Members the revised forecast results. - Month 12 Final meeting (1 day) in Brussels The meeting will be organised by the Topic Manager. The Partner should present to the Topic Manager and relevant Clean Sky 2 Members the final forecast. - Month 12 Submission to the JU of the final report This report should contain in detail: o description of the results including detailed movements matrices o abstract and an executive summary of a maximum of 6 pages o recommendations Regarding data and results, they should also be provided in electronic form (i.e. Excel, csv, txt or equivalent). 3. Expected Impact The forecast will provide information on the potential technology diffusion for different market segments of Clean Sky 2 bizjet based on assumptions with regards to improved vehicle productivity. Furthermore, the forecast will support the impact assessments of Clean Sky 2 vehicle technologies and the quantification of the aviation footprint. Based on this, the Technology Evaluator will quantify the benefits of Clean Sky 2 technologies and their level of contribution to the Flightpath 2050 goals regarding environment, economy, connectivity/mobility and competitiveness. In addition, identified growth rates will be used to support airport level assessments, in which fleet mix changes will be used to quantify environmental assessments at airport level. 4. Special skills and capabilities expected from the applicants University/Public Research Organisation shall act as coordinator of the proposal 19
Proven experience in the business jet sector Expertise in forecasting Experience in analysing and reporting on long-term trends for air traffic Access to an appropriate methodology; including the ability to quantify vehicle improvements and their impact on the market diffusion and fleet development Awareness of current literature relevant to long-term trends Ability to deliver clear and concise reports in English, based on solid evidence 20
IV. ATS Level Rotorcraft 2035 forecast Type of action (RIA/IA /CSA) Programme Area Joint Technical Programme (JTP) Ref. CSA Indicative Funding Topic Value (in k ) 150 TE WP5.1 TE ATS level 2035 forecast: rotorcraft Topic Manager DLR Type of Agreement Cooperation Agreement Duration of the action (in Months) 12 Indicative Start Date 7 Q4 2017 Identification JTI-CS2-2016-CFP05-TE2-01-04 Title ATS Level Rotorcraft 2035 forecast Short description (3 lines) This topic consists of performing a forecast for all types of rotorcraft fleet and movements starting from 2015, passing by 2020/2025/2030 until 2035. This forecast should detail per type of mission at country/region/world levels. 1. Specific challenge Cross-positioned within the Clean Sky 2 Programme, the Technology Evaluator (TE) is a dedicated evaluation platform. It has the key role of assessing the environmental impact of the technologies developed in Clean Sky 2 and their level of success towards well-defined environmental (noise, CO 2, NO x ) and societal benefits and targets. These technologies are developed by the IADPs (Innovative Aircraft Demonstrator Platforms) and ITDs (Integrated Technology Demonstrator projects) and clustered in coherent and mutually compatible solution sets, defining concept aircrafts. TE will conduct assessments on the various concept aircrafts at three levels: Aircraft level A Clean Sky 2 concept aircraft and its reference technology aircraft 8 is compared along the same trajectory in order to determine the environmental benefit of the Clean Sky 2 technologies, namely noise on ground and emissions (CO 2 and NO X ). Airport level A Clean Sky 2 concept aircraft replaces its reference technology counterpart at different time scales (2015/2020/2035/2050) in terms of airport traffic scenarios. The purpose of this replacement approach is to evaluate the full potential of environmental benefits of Clean Sky 2 technologies to an airport area, namely noise on the ground and population impacted by certain 7 The start date corresponds to actual start date with all legal documents in place. 8 The reference technology aircraft is the current state-of-the-art in 2015. 21
noise levels and emissions (CO 2 and NO x ). Air transport system (ATS) level Similarly to airport level, a Clean Sky 2 concept aircraft replaces its reference technology counterpart at different time scales (2015/2020/2035/2050) in terms of airport traffic scenarios. However, in this case the impact is measured at worldwide level. This call partially addresses the ATS level for rotorcraft by concentrating on a forecast for all types of rotorcraft fleet and movements starting from 2015, passing by 2020/2025/2030 until 2035 as input for environmental, economic and connectivity assessments. 2. Scope The forecast will be developed in the following steps: a) Review of available rotorcraft forecasts The Partner should compare the various available forecasts in terms of assumptions, data sources, relevance of drivers and variables. In addition, the Partner should draft a clear and concise comparison, highlighting the most relevant existing statistical and information gaps. b) Fine-tuning of the forecasting approach The Partner should agree with the Topic Manager which approach should be selected to pursue the forecasting, including the assumptions, drivers and especially market potentials targeted by other vehicles. The forecast should include: - rotorcraft types, namely: o Conventional o Compound o Tilt-rotor - missions, namely: o passenger transport o air taxi charter o emergency and medical services (EMS) o search and rescue (S&R) o civil utility o law enforcement o oil and gas o transport of goods 22
- movements (operator and operating country, heliports, airfields, airports, off-shore platforms and hospitals) in terms of number of trips or flight hours for the forecasted year, based on average journey times and distances for each rotorcraft type. Future technological alternatives such as UAVs and adopted policies should also be taken into account. The Partner should use the expected GDP growth figures from Global Insight. In this exercise, the Partner will be provided by the Topic Manager, in agreement with the relevant Clean Sky 2 Members, with the following variables: - expected population growth - operational and technological parameters (speed, costs, etc.) - location of heliports for EMS, S&R, off-shore platforms and law enforcement The Partner is welcomed to bring new data to these variables. When data is lacking for certain variables, the Partner should provide an approach to fill the gaps, which will be discussed and agreed with the Topic Manager and the relevant Clean Sky 2 Members. c) Production of forecast The forecast shall start with 2015 based on available data. The forecast should quantify fleet and movements for the years 2020, 2025, 2030 and 2035 and should be carried out at country/region/world levels. Please find below the indicative schedule: - Month 2 Kick-off meeting (1 day) in Brussels The meeting will be organised by the Topic Manager. The Partner should present to the Topic Manager and relevant Clean Sky 2 Members the comparison of the various available forecasts in terms of assumptions, data sources, and relevance of drivers and variables, highlighting the most relevant existing statistical and information gaps. In addition, the Partner should put forward for discussion a proposal on the approach to fill the statistical and information gaps. - Month 4 Submission to the JU of the first report This report should contain in detail: o summary of the discussions during the kick-off meeting with the Topic Manager and relevant Clean Sky 2 Members 23
o o o comparison of the various available forecasts in terms of assumptions, data sources, and relevance of drivers and variables, highlighting the most relevant existing statistical and information gaps. collection of the data related to the (operator and operating country, heliports, airfields, airports, off-shore platforms and hospitals) defined approach to fill the statistical and information gaps - Month 8 Intermediate meeting I (1 day) in Brussels The meeting will be organised by the Topic Manager. The Partner should present to the Topic Manager and relevant Clean Sky 2 Members the first forecast results. - Month 9 - Submission to the JU of the draft final report This report should contain in detail the first forecast results, including the remarks made during Intermediate meeting I. - Month 10 Intermediate meeting II (1 day) in Brussels The meeting will be organised by the Topic Manager. The Partner should present to the Topic Manager and relevant Clean Sky 2 Members the revised forecast results. - Month 12 Final meeting (1 day) in Brussels The meeting will be organised by the Topic Manager. The Partner should present to the Topic Manager and relevant Clean Sky 2 Members the final forecast. - Month 12 Submission to the JU of the final report This report should contain in detail: o o o description of the results including detailed movements matrices abstract and an executive summary of a maximum of 6 pages recommendations Regarding data and results, they should also be provided in electronic form (i.e. Excel, csv, txt or equivalent). 3. Impact 24
The forecast will provide information on the potential technology diffusion for different market segments of Clean Sky 2 rotorcraft based on assumptions with regards to improved vehicle productivity. Furthermore, the forecast will support the impact assessments of Clean Sky 2 vehicle technologies and the quantification of the aviation footprint. Based on this, the Technology Evaluator will quantify the benefits of Clean Sky 2 technologies and their level of contribution to the Flightpath 2050 goals regarding environment, economy, connectivity/mobility and competitiveness. In addition, identified growth rates will be used to support airport level assessments, in which fleet mix changes will be used to quantify environmental assessments at airport level. 4. Special skills and capabilities expected from the applicants University/Public Research Organisation shall act as coordinator of the proposal Proven experience in the rotorcraft sector Expertise in forecasting Experience in analysing and reporting on long-term trends for air traffic Access to an appropriate methodology; including the ability to quantify vehicle improvements and their impact on the market diffusion and fleet development Awareness of current literature relevant to long-term trends Ability to deliver clear and concise reports in English, based on solid evidence 25
V. ATS Level SAT 2035 forecast Type of action (RIA/IA/CSA) Programme Area Joint Technical Programme (JTP) Ref. CSA Indicative Funding Topic Value (in k ) 150 TE WP5.1 TE ATS level SAT 2035 forecast Topic Manager DLR Type of Agreement Cooperation Agreement Duration of the action (in Months) 12 Indicative Start Date 9 Q4 2017 Identification JTI-CS2-2016-CFP05-TE2-01-05 Title ATS Level SAT 2035 forecast Short description (3 lines) This topic consists of performing a forecast for SAT (Small Air Transport) fleet and movements starting from 2015, passing by 2020/2025/2030 until 2035. This forecast should detail at country/region/world levels. 1. Specific challenge Cross-positioned within the Clean Sky 2 Programme, the Technology Evaluator (TE) is a dedicated evaluation platform. It has the key role of assessing the environmental impact of the technologies developed in Clean Sky 2 and their level of success towards well-defined environmental (noise, CO 2, NO x ) and societal benefits and targets. These technologies are developed by the IADPs (Innovative Aircraft Demonstrator Platforms) and ITDs (Integrated Technology Demonstrator projects) and clustered in coherent and mutually compatible solution sets, defining concept aircrafts. TE will conduct assessments on the various concept aircrafts at three levels: Aircraft level A Clean Sky 2 concept aircraft and its reference technology aircraft 10 is compared along the same trajectory in order to determine the environmental benefit of the Clean Sky 2 technologies, namely noise on ground and emissions (CO 2 and NO X ). Airport level A Clean Sky 2 concept aircraft replaces its reference technology counterpart at different time scales (2015/2020/2035/2050) in terms of airport traffic scenarios. The purpose of this replacement approach is to evaluate the full potential of environmental benefits of Clean Sky 2 9 The start date corresponds to actual start date with all legal documents in place. 10 The reference technology aircraft is the current state-of-the-art in 2015. 26
technologies to an airport area, namely noise on the ground and population impacted by certain noise levels and emissions (CO 2 and NO x ). Air transport system (ATS) level Similarly to airport level, a Clean Sky 2 concept aircraft replaces its reference technology counterpart at different time scales (2015/2020/2035/2050) in terms of airport traffic scenarios. However, in this case the impact is measured at worldwide level. This call partially addresses the ATS level for SAT by concentrating on a forecast for all types of Small Air transport aircraft (seats 4-19, pressurized and unpressurized cabin) and movements starting from 2015, passing by 2020/2025/2030 until 2035 as input for environmental, economic and connectivity assessments. 2. Scope The forecast will be developed in the following steps: a) Review of available SAT forecasts The Partner should compare the various available forecasts in terms of assumptions, data sources, relevance of drivers and variables. In addition, the Partner should draft a clear and concise comparison, highlighting the most relevant existing statistical and information gaps. b) Fine-tuning of the forecasting approach The Partner should agree with the Topic Manager which approach should be selected to pursue the forecasting, including the assumptions, drivers and especially market potentials targeted by other vehicles. The forecast should focus on passenger transport and provide results on expected movements between airports and airfields in terms of number of trips, average journey times and average distances. The Partner should use the expected GDP growth figures from Global Insight. In this exercise, the Partner will be provided by the Topic Manager, in agreement with the relevant Clean Sky 2 Members, with the following variables: - expected population growth - operational and technological parameters (speed, costs, etc.) The Partner is welcomed to bring new data to these variables, especially on airfields. When data is lacking for certain variables, the Partner should provide an approach to fill the gaps, which will be discussed and agreed with the Topic Manager and the relevant Clean Sky 2 Members. 27
c) Production of forecast The forecast shall start with 2015 based on available data. The forecast should quantify fleet and movements for the years 2020, 2025, 2030 and 2035 and should be carried out at country/region/world levels. Please find below the indicative schedule: - Month 2 Kick-off meeting (1 day) in Brussels The meeting will be organised by the Topic Manager. The Partner should present to the Topic Manager and relevant Clean Sky 2 Members the comparison of the various available forecasts in terms of assumptions, data sources, and relevance of drivers and variables, highlighting the most relevant existing statistical and information gaps. In addition, the Partner should put forward for discussion a proposal on the approach to fill the statistical and information gaps. - Month 4 Submission to the JU of the first report This report should contain in detail: o summary of the discussions during the kick-off meeting with the Topic Manager and relevant Clean Sky 2 Members o comparison of the various available forecasts in terms of assumptions, data sources, and relevance of drivers and variables, highlighting the most relevant existing statistical and information gaps. o collection of the data related to the expected movements o defined approach to fill the statistical and information gaps - Month 8 Intermediate meeting I (1 day) in Brussels The meeting will be organised by the Topic Manager. The Partner should present to the Topic Manager and relevant Clean Sky 2 Members the first forecast results. - Month 9 - Submission to the JU of the draft final report This report should contain in detail the first forecast results, including the remarks made during Intermediate meeting I. - Month 10 Intermediate meeting II (1 day) in Brussels The meeting will be organised by the Topic Manager. The Partner should present to the Topic Manager and relevant Clean Sky 2 Members the revised forecast results. - Month 12 Final meeting (1 day) in Brussels The meeting will be organised by the Topic Manager. The Partner should present to the Topic Manager and relevant Clean Sky 2 Members the final forecast. - Month 12 Submission to the JU of the final report This report should contain in detail: o description of the results including detailed movements matrices 28
o o abstract and an executive summary of a maximum of 6 pages recommendations Regarding data and results, they should also be provided in electronic form (i.e. Excel, csv, txt or equivalent). 3. Impact The forecast will provide information on the potential technology diffusion for different market segments of Clean Sky 2 Small Air Transport aircraft based on assumptions with regards to improved vehicle productivity. Furthermore, the forecast will support the impact assessments of Clean Sky 2 vehicle technologies and the quantification of the aviation footprint. Based on this, the Technology Evaluator will quantify the benefits of Clean Sky 2 technologies and their level of contribution to the Flightpath 2050 goals regarding environment, economy, connectivity/mobility and competitiveness. In addition, identified growth rates will be used to support airport level assessments, in which fleet mix changes will be used to quantify environmental assessments at airport level. 4. Special skills and capabilities expected from the applicants University/Public Research Organisation shall act as coordinator of the proposal Proven experience in the SAT sector Expertise in forecasting Experience in analysing and reporting on long-term trends for air traffic Access to an appropriate methodology; including the ability to quantify vehicle improvements and their impact on the market diffusion and fleet development Awareness of current literature relevant to long-term trends Ability to deliver clear and concise reports in English, based on solid evidence 29