Final Regional 2035 Transportation Plan Adopted: January 21, 2010 Paul T. Hamilton, Chief Planner Tri-County Regional Planning Commission
Federal Requirement Safe Accountable Fair and Efficient Transportation Equity Act A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU), August, 2001 Regional 2030 Transportation Plan adopted October 26, 2005 Updated every four years (from date of federal approval--march, 2010)
Chapter 1 Background, executive summary, administrative change policies
TCRPC Metropolitan Planning Organization Committee Structure
Partners Federal Agencies/MDOT/Local Agencies/Transportation Providers Other Other MPO Forum Transportation Plan Development Process Goals and Objectives 1 State Transportation Policy Plan Goals and Objectives 2 Statewide Revenue Assessment 3 12 Tools for Analysis and Evaluation 4 Needs Identification and Assessment Expand Preserve Transit Intermodal 5 MPO Area Revenue Assessment Forecasting 6 Program Structure - Define Program Categories - Prioritize Categories - Use Programmatic Goals, Objectives, Performance Measures - Develop Long Term Investment Strategies 7 13 Criteria for Project Prioritization Within Program Structure Categories 20-Year Project/Program Development Plan Identification of 5-Year Investment Strategies: (5YIS) - By Spending Category - Performance/System Condition Goals - Immediate Land Use/Economic Development Issues - Funding Leverage Strategies - Long/Short-Term Program Focus - May Include Priority Corridors 8 9 10 Public Involvement TIP Development Process : - MPO provides plan priorities and the agreed-to 5 YIS and estimate of available funding to implementing agencies - MPO requests project descriptions from implementing agencies within agreed-to strategies and plan goals - Implementing agencies submit descriptions and develops project lists through MPO process - Evaluation of proposed solutions within LRP and 5 YIS through MPO - Prioritize select and financially constrain project list for all funding sources through the MPO process - Perform AQ Conformity Analysis - Final TIP Project List - Approved by MPO - TIP Project List approved by state and feds 11 Product of the Revised Planning Process - 1/31/97
Chapter 2 Regional Growth: Choices for Our Future (Some updates editing, major content unchanged from 2025 and 2030 Plans)
Adopted Regional Land Use Vision
EXAMPLES OF ADOPTED PRINCIPLES: Principle Transportation Network- The regional transportation priority will be to enhance and preserve the existing road network, public transit and non-motorized transportation modes rather than further expansion of the road network in rural areas. Environmental Protection- For long-term regional health and sustainability, the natural environment (land, air, and water) should be protected. Greenways and Walkability- Pathways, sidewalks, trails and on-street bike facilities should be developed and enhanced to provide alternatives to motorized transportation, improve linkages to recreational opportunities for regional residents and provide public health benefits by offering opportunities for physical activity.
REGIONAL VISION IMPLEMENTATION Reduce congested lane miles on regional roads by approximately 50 percent and save taxpayers between 1.6 and 4.8 billion dollars in road improvement costs which would otherwise be required if current trends are unchecked. Save the equivalent of three townships of agricultural land and open space. Reduce air pollutants by tens of thousands of kilograms per day, leading to public health benefits and lower long term public health costs. Improve the region s quality of life and economic competitiveness in an increasingly global economy greater than would occur under current public policies.
Chapter 3: Goals and Objectives Minor revisions to transit/technology Multi-modal corridor study of Michigan Avenue/Grand River Corridor New section on climate change & energy sustainability, reflective of science & state of the practice Public input four December 2008 Town Forum resultscomments and ideas were added, considered or otherwise addressed. Living document, input since 1988 Transportation 2020 effort
Chapters 4 & 5 Relationship to State Long Range Plan; Public participation efforts: --Regional Growth project efforts, prior plans, plus: --four December 2008 Forums --two June 2009 Forums --five public information meetings --expanded committees --variety of public notices and means -- surveys; other involvement opportunities
Chapter 6 Socio-economic data Projections Substantial local inputs (two stage review) Commission adopted, June 2008 Projected population and employment lower than previous plans, based on current economy (still may be optimistic)
Socioeconomic Forecasts US Census, ACS, Sub-County estimates Population Data MESA, Claritas, Dun & Bradstreet Employment Data REMI Global Insights Woods & Poole Socioeconomic Forecasting Model Zoning Future Land Use 2030 Plan Accessibility Population & Employment Forecasts Trend & Wise Growth County, MCD & TAZ levels
Socioeconomic Data Summary Regional Data 2005 2010 Adopted Trend Forecast 2035 Adopted Trend Forecast 2035 Wise Growth Build Out Wise Growth Build Out Population 454,667 451,260 491,808 491,808 1,163,800 1,076,300 Retail Employment 49,431 49,319 50,764 50,765 112,600 112,600 Non-Retail Employment 231,355 232,599 248,880 248,882 377,400 377,400 Households 181,836 181,082 212,914 212,914 446,200 446,200 Vehicles 331,219 315,111 352,938 352,938 925,500 812,100
Chapters 7 & 8 Description of Existing Transportation System Characteristics Management systems congestion management
Congestion Management Capacity not added unless drawn from an approved Congestion Management (CM) process Land Use Wise Growth primary congestion management strategy CM ancillary land use strategies: access management/traffic impact studies considered first
Chapter 9 Travel demand forecasting model development, assumptions and calibration
Modeling Process
Chapter 10 Deficiency Analysis Highway capacity deficiencies Safety & operational System continuity Pavement & condition deficiencies Bridges, economic development, access Freight/intermodal Public transit element Parking element Regional non-motorized system plan
Transit Element Includes adopted goals, objectives & statement of purpose and needs for Michigan Avenue/Grand River Corridor Study alternatives analysis (consistency with new starts requirements) Amendments may be required to reflect study results
Chapter 11 Alternatives Analysis Eight options considered: 1) High transit 2) Medium transit 3) Demand reductions/improve operations 4) Combine of 2 & 3 5) Combine 2, 3 & projects (adopted) 6) Projects (wise growth) 7) Projects (trends) 8) Highways only Adopted plan
Daily VMT of Alternatives 17,000,000 16,500,000 16,000,000 VMT (miles) 15,500,000 15,000,000 14,500,000 14,000,000 13,500,000 1-High Transit 2-Medium Transit 3-Demand Reduction/ Improve Operations 4-Combination of 2 & 3 5-Combination of 2,3, & 6A 6A-Potential Highway Options on Wise Growth 6B-Potential Highway Options on Trend 7-Highways only 8-Combination of 2,3 & Adopted Plan Alternatives
Daily Congested Lane Miles 60.0 50.0 40.0 M iles 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 1-High Transit 2-Medium Transit 3-Demand Reduction/ Improve Operations 4-Combination of 2 & 3 5-Combination of 2,3, & 6A 6A-Potential Highway Options on Wise Growth 6B-Potential Highway Options on Trend 7-Highways only 8-Combination of 2,3 & Adopted Plan Alternatives
Daily Unlinked Transit Trips by Transportation Alternative (System Total ) 90 80 70 Trips (in thousand) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1-High Transit 2-Medium Transit 3-Demand Reduction/ Improve Operations 4-Combination of 2 & 3 5-Combination of 2,3, & 6A 6A-Potential Highway Options on Wise Growth 6B-Potential Highway Options on Trend 7-Highways only 8-Combination of 2,3 & Adopted Plan Alte rnative s
2005 Base Year HC = 16,467 kg/day NOx = 30,759 kg/day HC and NOx (Delay) 5.4 5.2 kg/day (in thousand) 5 4.8 4.6 4.4 HC NOx 4.2 4 1-High Transit 2-Medium Transit 3-Demand Reduction/ Improve Operations 4-Combination of 2 & 3 5-Combination of 2,3, & 6A 6A-Potential Highway Options on Wise Growth 6B-Potential Highway Options on Trend 7-Highways only 8-Combination of 2,3 & Adopted Plan Alternatives
Fuel Consumption (Delay) 2005 Base Year Fuel Consumption = 510,998 gallons 600 500 Gallons (in thousand) 400 300 200 100 0 1-High Transit 2-Medium Transit 3-Demand Reduction/ Improve Operations 4-Combination of 2 & 3 5-Combination of 2,3, & 6A 6A-Potential Highway Options on Wise Growth 6B-Potential Highway Options on Trend 7-Highways only 8-Combination of 2,3 & Adopted Plan Alternatives
Chapter 12--Financial Plan estimates available revenues Estimates year of construction cost Considers maintenance and operations first Is financially constrained by year, period and over the length of the plan Identifies allocations by project type Reserves funding for future preserve and non-capacity projects
Regional 2035 Transportation Plan: Road Funding
Chapter 13: 2035 Plan 25 program categories enhancements to ITS Definition, analysis tools, performance measures, priority, relation to goals and objectives Short and long term investment strategies Issues Project listings and maps
Regional 2035 Transportation Plan Supplement Chapter 14 Environmental Justice Chapter 15 Consideration of mandatory planning factors Chapter 16 Air quality Conformity analysis Chapter 17 Environmental mitigation Chapter 18 Consultation & Consistency with land use and economic development plans
Regional Transportation Conformity Analysis, 8 Hour Ozone Standard, Regional 2035 Transportation Plan and 2008-2011 Transportation Improvement Program Emissions* Scenario VOC NO x DAILY VMT** 8 Hour Conformity Budget 25,691.90 48,145.10 ----- 2010 Action 9,943.86 17,759.99 23,990.13 2018 Action 6,115.14 7,825.93 24,347.51 2025 Action 4,766.88 5,394.62 24,743.59 2030 Action 4,668.01 4,681.52 24,962.79 2035 Action 4,674.42 4,510.84 25,183.05
Thank You Paul T. Hamilton, Chief Planner Tri-County Regional Planning Commission (TCRPC) 913 W. Holmes Road, Ste. 201 Lansing, MI 48910 517.393.0342 (phone) 517.393.4424 (fax) 800.619.6676 (toll free) phamilton@mitcrpc.org (email) www.mitcrpc.org (web)