AlixPartners Nearshoring Perspectives February 2014 www.alixpartners.com
Executives Now Indicate the U.S. Is the Most Attractive Near-Shoring Location With Mexico as the Second Most Attractive Region If nearshoring is a consideration, rank each region in attractiveness. (1=most attractive; 7=least attractive) Most Attractive US 19% 37% 37% 42% Mexico 28% 37% 49% 63% Canada 7% Central America 2% 5% 9% Caribbean South America 5% 2% 5% 2014 2013 2012 Other 5% 15% 2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Least Attractive 2
Improved Speed-to-Market and Lower Freight Costs Remain the Most Attractive Expected Advantages What are the biggest advantages you would expect from a nearshoring decision? Improved speed-to-market / Lower 67% 71% Lower freight costs 59% 75% Customer service improvements / 42% Fewer supply disruptions 3 35% Import duty and tax benefits 27% Better quality control 19% 21% Time-zone advantages (easier 18% 31% Lower input costs (e.g., natural gas, raw 13% 17% Improved intellectual property security 12% 1 7% Other (please specify) 8% 2014 7% Shrinking wage gap 22% 2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Respondents were asked to select top three choices; totals will add to more than 10 Most Attractive Least Attractive 3
Cost Build Up Our Lowest Landed Cost Model Is Based on Seven, Product- Specific Factors for the Origin Country to the Destination Country Harmonized Tariff Cost Exchange Rate Impact I/B Logistics Cost Inventory Carrying Cost Local Direct Material Costs Local Manufacturing Overhead Local Direct Labor Costs Components 4
% of US Cost The China Cost Could Approximate the U.S. Cost By 2015 1.10 1.05 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 AlixPartners Manufacturing-Sourcing Cost Index Composite Index US Mexico China India Brazil Forecast Trend 05 06 07 08 09 11 11 12 13 14 15 Assumptions: Continuation of historical wageinflation trends China s currency strengthens by 5% per year (others stable) Ocean freight rates increase 5% per year China s total landed cost could equal the U.S. cost by 2015 Mexico and India will remain very competitive Source: www.gocurrency.com 5
% of US Cost Example of a Product Where the Economics for Low-Cost Sourcing Are Shifting: Personal Care Non-Liquids Personal Care Non-Liquids 1.20 AlixPartners Manufacturing-Sourcing Cost Index Personal Care Non-Liquids US Mexico Brazil China India Forecast Trend 1.10 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 05 06 07 08 09 11 11 12 13 14 15 6
Even Where Economic Advantages Are Clear and Risks Are Low, There Are Significant Barriers to Re-Shoring/Near-Shoring Switching costs: Capital hurdles (tooling, transition costs, etc.) Savings sensitivities/uncertainties (e.g. exchange-rate movements) Regulatory approvals (FDA, FAA, ISO 9000, etc.) Current source-country responses; e.g., China: Massive labor, plant/equipment capacities Aggressive industrial policy (training, investment incentives, etc.) U.S.-specific constraints: Downsized domestic production-asset foundation (due to past outsourcing) Skilled-worker shortage (tool-and-die, machinists, welders, etc.), in part due to the current shale-oil boom Manufacturing-management shortage 7
Contact Details Foster Finley Managing Director, Enterprise Improvement New York, NY (404) 931-1349 Over 27 years of operations and consulting experience Co-leads AlixPartners Supply Chain Practice Sponsor of the Near-Shoring/Re-Shoring survey AlixPartners, LLP, 2013 8
Global Locations AlixPartners is ready to field a team of relevant experts whenever and wherever they are needed. Our professionals speak more than 50 languages and have experience in every corner of the world. Call us. We ll be there when it really matters. Boston One Boston Place Suite 4040 Boston, MA 02108 617.742.4400 Chicago 300 N. LaSalle Street Suite 1900 Chicago, IL 60654 312.346.2500 Dallas 2101 Cedar Springs Road Suite 1100 Dallas, TX 75201 214.647.7500 Detroit 2000 Town Center Suite 2400 Southfield, MI 48075 248. 358.4420 Dubai Office 101, Tower 2 Al Fattan Currency House P.O. Box 482093 Dubai Intl Financial Centre Dubai, United Arab Emirates +971.4.704.6000 Düsseldorf Hofgarten Palais Bleichstraße 8 10 40211 Düsseldorf Germany +49.211.97.55.10.00 Hong Kong Suite 1802 LHT Tower 31 Queen s Road Central Hong Kong +852.2236.3500 London 20 North Audley Street London W1K 6WE United Kingdom +44.20.7098.7400 Los Angeles 515 S. Flower Street Suite 3050 Los Angeles, CA 90071 213.437.7100 Milan Corso Matteotti 9 20121 Milan Italy +39.02.360.12000 Munich Mauerkircherstr. 1 a 81679 München Germany +49.89.20.30.40.00 New York 40 West 57 th Street New York, NY 10019 212.490.2500 Paris 49/51 Avenue George V 75008 Paris France +33.1.76.74.72.00 San Francisco 580 California Street Suite 2050 San Francisco, CA 94104 415.848.0283 Shanghai Suite 4805 Plaza 66 Building II 1266 Nan Jing West Road Shanghai, 200040 China +8621.6171.7555 Tokyo Marunouchi Building 33F 2-4-1 Marunouchi Chiyoda-ku Tokyo 100-6333 Japan +81.3.5533.4800 Washington, DC 1999 K Street NW Suite 750 Washington, DC 20006 202.756.9000 2013 AlixPartners, LLP 9