SBCAG STAFF REPORT SUBJECT: Fast Forward 2040 RTP-SCS Preliminary Scenarios Analysis and SB 375 Targets Update Process MEETING DATE: June 16, 2016 AGENDA ITEM: 6 STAFF CONTACT: Peter Imhof, Julio Perucho RECOMMENDATION: Receive presentation on draft Fast Forward 2040 Regional Transportation Plan-Sustainable Communities Strategy (RTP-SCS) updated scenarios and preliminary modeling analysis, and Air Resources Board SB 375 greenhouse gas target update process. SUMMARY: This item provides a report on progress on Fast Forward 2040 Regional Transportation Plan- Sustainable Communities Strategy (RTP-SCS) development and presents preliminary modeling results from the updated land use and transportation scenarios. It also reports on the California Air Resources Board (ARB) process for updating SBCAG s SB 375 greenhouse gas targets. Over the last six months, SBCAG staff has worked closely with JTAC and SBCAG member agency planning and public works departments, as well as transit operators, to update the land use and transportation scenarios evaluated in the adopted RTP-SCS. Local agency staff and JTAC have checked land use assumptions, growth allocations and other inputs, provided updated transportation project lists, and reviewed financial constraints. Preliminary modeling results indicate the updated scenarios would perform similarly to the adopted RTP-SCS scenarios, but would achieve greater projected per capita GHG reductions than the adopted 2040 RTP-SCS due to several factors. While most major inputs (e.g., Regional Growth Forecast growth projections and Regional Housing Needs Allocation) are the same, several technical factors and modeling inputs have changed. These changes include lower inter-regional trip estimates from neighboring MPOs, adjustments to U.S. 101 s functional classification in the regional travel demand model, and increased modeled transit route frequency due to an increase in available transit funding. All told, four scenarios (Scenarios 3, 5, 6, and 7) would achieve the current SB 375 zero net per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets for both target years (2020 and 2035). Concurrent with SBCAG s RTP-SCS update process, ARB is in the process of updating SB 375 greenhouse gas targets, which would apply to the third RTP-SCS cycle due in 2021. (The ARB targets adopted for SBCAG in 2010 would continue to apply to the RTP-SCS current update cycle due next year.) ARB staff has indicated that the updated targets will be based in part on the SBCAG modeling results. However, if it so chooses, SBCAG may also make a formal target recommendation to ARB.
DISCUSSION: Background SB 375 requires that each metropolitan planning organization (MPO) adopt a Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS) or Alternative Planning Strategy (APS) as one of the elements in its Regional Transportation Plan (RTP). In August 2013, the SBCAG Board adopted the 2040 Regional Transportation Plan-Sustainable Communities Strategy (RTP-SCS). This plan is required to be updated every four years, with the next update due by August 2017. SBCAG staff, in close collaboration with the JTAC and local agency staff, has now updated the land use and transportation scenarios in the adopted 2040 RTP-SCS and completed preliminary modeling analysis for the next iteration of this plan. Under SB 375, the California Air Resources Board (ARB) has the discretion to update SB 375 greenhouse gas targets in every four years and is required to adopt new targets every 8 years. Gov. Code 65080(b)(2)(A). ARB originally set SB 375 targets in 2010, stating targets as a percent reduction in per capita emissions from a 2005 base year. ARB set SBCAG s targets at zero growth in emissions for both target years 2020 and 2035. SBCAG s adopted 2040 RTP- SCS projected GHG emissions reductions of 10.5% in 2020 and 15.4% in 2035 (greater reductions than the zero targets set by ARB), based on the preferred land use and transportation scenario. Scenarios Update Initial land use, travel, and air quality modeling results have been completed for a range of draft alternative scenarios being studied for inclusion in the RTP-SCS. These scenarios were selected in consultation with JTAC and generally track the scenarios in the adopted 2040 RTP- SCS. However, JTAC recommended not including scenarios considered as part of the 2040 RTP-SCS that did not meet the SB 375 GHG targets (Scenarios 4 and 8). The draft scenarios include varying land use assumptions and growth allocations as well as fiscally constrained transportation and transit projects. Scenarios modeled and analyzed include the following: : Future Baseline The future baseline scenario is based on existing, adopted General Plan land uses. This alternative also assumes that current sub-regional growth trends will continue, consistent with the 2012 Regional Growth Forecast. : No Project is identical to, with the exception that planned transportation projects are not included. (Programmed projects are included because they are already funded and assumed to be part of the baseline.) This scenario was included in the previous RTP for CEQA purposes as the no project alternative, which CEQA requires SBCAG to evaluate (14 CCR Section 15126.6(e)). : No Build Similar to the previous two scenarios, this scenario does not consider any transportation projects, planned or programmed, in the analysis. This scenario was included in the previous 2
RTP for CEQA purposes as the current baseline condition. Per counsel s advice, we will continue to apply a current baseline condition as well as a future baseline consistent with the approach of the EIR for the 2013 RTP-SCS. : TOD/Infill with Enhanced Transit Strategy This alternative is the preferred scenario in the adopted 2040 RTP-SCS. This scenario selectively increases residential and commercial land use capacity within existing transit corridors. Land use change assumptions are made based on the location of existing transit routes and service in consultation with SBCAG member agencies. Assumed changes in land use capacity reflect local planning discussions about possible future land use and General Plan and Community Plan updates. This scenario also addresses jobs/housing balance issues by emphasizing job growth in the North County and housing growth in the South County. : Blended Infill/Expansion This scenario has future growth occurring on land contiguous with and adjacent to the urban edge in a low-density pattern. This scenario also distributes growth based on increased residential and commercial land use capacity both in core urban areas along transit lines as in. : North County-Weighted Jobs, South County-Weighted Housing This scenario begins with existing, adopted land uses, but applies weights to make specific growth distribution assumptions, emphasizing job growth in the North County and housing growth in the South County, within existing available land use capacity. It does not continue past trends, but also does not focus on infill along transit corridors. Infill occurs only as supported by local plans. : TOD/Infill and Maximum Enhanced Transit Based on the land use pattern from the TOD/Infill scenario, this scenario enhances transit by maximizing alternative mode projects using all available flexible funding sources for transit and assumes possible new funding sources for transit. It makes specific transit enhancements, and generally doubles bus frequencies along existing local transit routes during peak periods. Performance Results For each of the scenarios analyzed, we have compiled results by performance measure generated through the SBCAG TransCAD regional travel demand model and EMFAC 2014 air quality model. Performance measures used are those reviewed by JTAC in concert with the RTP-SCS Goals and Objectives. Attachment 1 summarizes results for key performance measures by scenario for the SB 375 target years 2020 and 2035 and 2040 plan horizon year. Key performance measures are also presented by scenario graphically and are included as Attachment 2. In their present draft form, Scenarios 3, 5, 6, and 7 achieve the SB 375 zero net per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets for SBCAG for both target years (2020 and 2035), utilizing 2005 as the baseline year. Draft Scenarios 1, 2, and 2a achieve the 2020 targets, but do not meet the 2035 target. Per instructions from Air Resources Board staff, the 3
2005 baseline year utilizes back-casted 2010 emissions data. Comparison to the 2040 RTP-SCS adopted in August 2013 The land use scenarios in conceptual form have remained the same as those included in the adopted 2040 RTP-SCS. However, several components critical to the performance results have changed since the 2040 RTP-SCS was adopted in August 2013. These changes include updates to the EMFAC air quality model (EMFAC2011 to EMFAC2014), changes to the underlying transit routes and frequencies, changes to the constrained transportation project lists, minor changes to land use assumptions and growth allocation, updated inter-regional trip information from SCAG and SLOCOG staff, and adjustments to U.S. 101 s functional classification in SBCAG s regional travel demand model between unincorporated Santa Maria and the Gaviota Coast, among other things. These changes, in concert with one another, have affected both VMT and GHG generation relative to the previously adopted RTP-SCS. Results of these component changes are shown for (the adopted Preferred Scenario) in the table below: Table 1: VMT and CO 2 Per Capita Results Preliminary vs. Adopted Scenario Units 2005 2010 2020 2035 2040 3. Adopted TOD/Infill (EMFAC2011 & EMFAC2014) VMT Total Miles 9,406,707 9,052,017 9,444,018 10,302,621 10,513,881 Miles/Person 22.53 21.35 21.72 20.75 20.66 CO2 per Capita (EMFAC2011) Pounds per day 18.40 17.23 16.46 15.57 -- % Change from 2005 -- -- -10.5% -15.4% -- CO2 per Capita (EMFAC2014) Pounds per day 18.35 17.32 16.42 15.65 -- % Change from 2005 -- -- -10.5% -14.7% -- 3. TOD/Infill with Enhanced Transit Strategy (EMFAC2014) VMT Total Miles 9,732,296 9,365,328 9,431,525 10,336,166 10,594,756 Miles/Person 23.31 22.09 21.69 20.82 20.82 CO2 per Capita (EMFAC2014) Pounds per day 18.77 17.85 16.28 15.44 -- % Change from 2005 -- -- -13.3% -17.7% -- 3. Difference Preliminary TOD/Infill with Enhanced Transit Strategy vs Adopted TOD/Infill VMT Total Miles 325,589 313,311-12,493 33,545 80,875 Miles/Person 0.78 0.74-0.03 0.07 0.16 CO2 per Capita (EMFAC2014) Pounds per day 0.42 0.53-0.14-0.21 -- % Change from 2005 -- -- -2.80% -3.00% -- As can be seen, the refined TOD/Infill with Enhanced Transit Strategy decreases per capita CO 2 emissions by 2.8% for 2020 and 3.0% by 2035 compared to the adopted 2040 RTP-SCS preferred scenario. Table 2 below demonstrates the impacts of lower inter-regional trip estimates from San Luis 4
Obispo Council of Governments (SLOCOG) and Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) staff, which result in fewer long-distance trips and lower VMT and CO 2 emissions. Table 2: Inter-regional Trip Comparisons Agency & Date 2010 2020 2035 SLOCOG SBCAG Adopted 2013 RTP 75,400 ADT 86,360 ADT 102,800 ADT Latest estimate (April 2016) 70,700 ADT 76,460 ADT 85,100 ADT Change from 2013 RTP -4,700 ADT (-6.2%) -9,900 ADT (-11.5%) -17,700 ADT (-17.2%) SCAG SBCAG Adopted 2013 RTP 66,500 ADT 70,700 ADT 76,200 ADT Latest estimate (April 2016) 66,500 ADT 68,900 ADT 74,300 ADT Change from 2013 RTP -- -1,800 ADT (-2.5%) -1,900 ADT (-2.5%) Air Resources Board SB 375 Target Update ARB staff now intends to adopt updated GHG targets for all California MPOs by the end of 2016, which would take effect in 2018. ARB staff hopes to bring draft GHG targets to its board in September 2016, with adoption in late 2016 following CEQA review. According to ARB staff, updated targets for the next SCS cycle should be consistent with the reductions that were achieved by [MPOs ] first SCSs, and would be based on projected reductions in the current adopted RTP-SCSs, technical modeling information on land use and transportation scenarios, and technical consultation with SBCAG staff. Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions remains a central policy focus in Sacramento. In April 2015, California Governor Jerry Brown issued Executive Order B-30-15 to establish a California greenhouse gas reduction target of 40% below 1990 levels by 2030 and require ARB to update its Scoping Plan for how this target will be met based on reductions for all sources. The new target is intended as an interim target toward the 2050 target of 80% below 1990 levels established by previous Executive Order. Attachment 3 shows current GHG targets by MPO from highest to lowest. Only two other MPOs (Shasta and Butte) received targets equal to or less stringent than SBCAG in the first SCS cycle. Given the policy direction in Sacramento, SBCAG can reasonably expect to receive substantially increased targets for the third round. Based on SBCAG s adopted RTP-SCS and the preliminary modeling analysis of the updated scenarios, SBCAG should be positioned well to meet these requirements. We anticipate draft targets from ARB by September. We will report to JTAC and the Board, as appropriate, once we have received them. Under SB 375, MPOs at their discretion may also formally recommend targets to ARB. ARB staff would like to receive any target recommendations from MPOs this summer. Next Steps Consistent with our Public Participation Plan, we will begin preparing public workshops to engage interested stakeholders and members of the public. With JTAC guidance, public input and Board direction, we will refine the package of RTP-SCS scenarios and move toward Board selection of a preferred scenario. We will begin drafting the RTP-SCS itself, following selection of the preferred scenario. Through publication of a Request for Proposals, we will also begin the hiring process for a consultant to conduct environmental review. 5
The table below outlines the project schedule in general terms. Check marks indicate completed tasks. RTP-SCS Draft Project Schedule Summary Spring/Summer 2015 Update RTP-SCS Technical Methodology Update Public Participation Plan Fall/Winter 2015 Spring/Summer 2016 Update RTP-SCS Goals, Objectives and Performance Measures Integrate MAP-21 Performance Measures Phase 1 stakeholder outreach, scenario scoping Update land use assumptions and growth allocations Develop unconstrained RTP projects list Develop fiscally constrained RTP projects list Analyze Alternative Scenarios o Coordination with JTAC and ARB staff on SB 375 GHG target update o Alternative Scenario public workshops o ARB publishes draft updated SB 375 targets Fall/Winter 2016 o SBCAG Board selects Preferred Scenario o Draft RTP-SCS o Draft EIR/SEIR o ARB adopts final SB 375 targets Spring/Summer 2017 o SBCAG adopts RTP-SCS ATTACHMENTS: 1. Preliminary Scenario Key Performance Measure Table 2. Preliminary Scenario Key Performance Measure Graphs 3. Current ARB Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Targets 6
Attachment 1: Preliminary Scenario Key Performance Measure Table Scenario Units 2005 2010 2020 2035 2040 1. Future Baseline VMT Total Miles 9,732,296 9,365,328 10,578,880 12,678,986 13,076,704 Miles/Person 23.31 22.09 24.33 25.54 25.70 CO2 per Capita Pounds per day 18.77 17.85 18.54 19.34 Share Percent Share -- 1.34 1.34 1.54 1.48 Less Transit Percent -- 18.45 18.45 29.65 27.98 Time Minutes -- 14.18 15.05 15.47 15.61 Distance Miles -- 8.00 8.72 9.03 9.08 2. No Project VMT Total Miles 9,732,296 9,365,328 10,706,595 12,809,223 13,210,457 Miles/Person 23.31 22.09 24.62 25.80 25.96 CO2 per Capita Pounds per day 18.77 17.85 18.77 19.62 Share Percent Share -- 1.34 1.48 1.42 1.42 Less Transit Percent -- 18.45 20.45 19.42 19.26 Time Minutes -- 14.18 15.05 15.48 15.63 Distance Miles -- 8.00 8.70 9.00 9.06 2a. No Build VMT Total Miles 9,732,296 9,365,328 10,675,070 12,736,435 13,121,445 Miles/Person 23.31 22.09 24.55 25.65 25.78 CO2 per Capita Pounds per day 18.77 17.85 18.72 19.48 Share Percent Share -- 1.34 1.47 1.41 1.41 Less Transit Percent -- 18.45 20.13 18.77 18.53 Time Minutes -- 14.18 15.09 15.72 15.91 Distance Miles -- 8.00 8.67 8.95 8.99 3. TOD/Infill with Enhanced Transit Strategy VMT Total Miles 9,732,296 9,365,328 9,431,525 10,336,166 10,594,756 Miles/Person 23.31 22.09 21.69 20.82 20.82 CO2 per Capita Pounds per day 18.77 17.85 16.28 15.44 Share Percent Share -- 1.34 1.55 1.72 1.72 7
Scenario Units 2005 2010 2020 2035 2040 3. TOD/Infill with Enhanced Transit Strategy (Continued) Less Transit Percent -- 18.45 31.58 33.93 34.33 Time Minutes -- 14.18 14.19 13.84 13.89 Distance Miles -- 8.00 7.81 7.42 7.40 5. Blended Infill/Expansion VMT Total Miles 9,732,296 9,365,328 9,564,125 10,596,606 11,049,670 Miles/Person 23.31 22.09 21.99 21.34 21.71 CO2 per Capita Pounds per day 18.77 17.85 16.52 15.87 Share Percent Share -- 1.34 1.53 1.65 1.64 Less Transit Percent -- 18.45 30.91 32.51 32.33 Time Minutes -- 14.18 14.30 14.03 14.17 Distance Miles -- 8.00 7.90 7.62 7.65 6. North County-Weighted Jobs, South County-Weighted Housing VMT Total Miles 9,732,296 9,365,328 9,676,175 10,515,740 10,875,286 Miles/Person 23.31 22.09 22.25 21.18 21.37 CO2 per Capita Pounds per day 18.77 17.85 16.75 15.73 Share Percent Share -- 1.34 1.53 1.76 1.75 Less Transit Percent -- 18.45 31.14 34.06 33.48 Time Minutes -- 14.18 14.39 13.99 14.08 Distance Miles -- 8.00 8.00 7.54 7.56 7. TOD/Infill and Maximum Enhanced Transit VMT Total Miles 9,732,296 9,365,328 9,414,674 10,318,419 10,575,122 Miles/Person 23.31 22.09 21.65 20.78 20.78 CO2 per Capita Pounds per day 18.77 17.85 16.25 15.41 Share Percent Share -- 1.34 1.80 1.99 1.99 Less Transit Percent -- 18.45 65.96 68.30 68.81 Time Minutes -- 14.18 14.19 13.84 13.89 Distance Miles -- 8.00 7.81 7.42 7.40 8
Attachment 2: Preliminary Scenario Key Performance Measure Graphs 14,000,000 Total Miles Traveled (VMT) 13,000,000 12,000,000 11,000,000 10,000,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 27 Total Miles Traveled (VMT) Per Capita 26 25 24 23 22 21 Zero Growth Target 20 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 9
20 CO 2 Per Capita 19.5 19 18.5 18 17.5 17 16.5 16 15.5 Zero Growth Target 15 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2.00 Share (%) 1.90 1.80 1.70 1.60 1.50 1.40 1.30 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 10
70 Population % Within 1/2 Mile of Frequent and Reliable Transit ( 15 Minute Headways) 60 50 40 30 20 10 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 17 Time (Minutes) 16 16 15 15 14 14 13 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 11
9.50 Distance (Miles) 9.00 8.50 8.00 7.50 7.00 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 12
Attachment 3: Current ARB Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Targets (per capita reduction in GHG over 2005 levels) MPO Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Targets 2020 2035 SACOG -7% -16% MTC/ABAG -7% -15% SCAG -8% -13% SANDAG -7% -13% Fresno -5% -10% Kern -5% -10% SJCOG -5% -10% StanCOG -5% -10% Tulare -5% -10% Merced -5% -10% Kings -5% -10% Madera -5% -10% SLOCOG -8% -8% Tahoe -7% -5% AMBAG 0% -5% SBCAG 0% 0% Shasta 0% 0% Butte 1% 1% Source: www.arb.ca.gov/cc/sb375/final_targets.pdf 13