No-Till A Climate Smart Agriculture Solution for Kazakhstan. Maurizio Guadagni (World Bank) Turi Fileccia (FAO)

No-Till A Climate Smart Agriculture Solution for Kazakhstan Maurizio Guadagni (World Bank) Turi Fileccia (FAO) Washington, DC. April 22, 2013 1

Outline 1. Agriculture and forestry are a major component of the climate change problem 2. But agriculture and forestry are also part of the solution 3. Carbon in soils Conservation Agriculture/No-Till 4. The example of Kazakhstan 5. The Agricultural Competitiveness Project 2

CO2 basics Plants utilize Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) and water to produce carbohydrates which converts atmospheric CO 2 into an organic form Burning plants/trees releases CO 2 Soils store large quantities of organic matter (more carbon is stored in soils than atmosphere and living vegetation together) Changing organic matter in soils releases/sequesters CO 2 into/from the atmosphere That is why deforestation and desertification (loss of soil organic matter) are a major sources of Green House Gases (GHGs) 3

Not only CO2 Two Green House Gases (GHGs) other than CO 2 are important in agriculture: Methane (CH 4 ): 21 times more climate impact than CO2 Nitrous Oxide (N 2 O): 310 times more climate impact than CO 2 Agriculture contributes about 47% and 58% of total anthropogenic emissions of Methane (CH 4 ) and Nitrous Oxide (N 2 O): Enteric fermentation in cattle, manure decomposition and rice cultivation release Methane (CH 4 ) Soils, fertilizer applications, and livestock release Nitrous Oxide (N 2 O) 4

IPCC estimates of global anthropogenic GHG emissions 30.9% Indeed according to FAO, livestock alone contributes to 18% of global emissions The new IPCC 5 assessment will merge Agriculture, Forestry, and Land Use Forestry is short - but wrong - for Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) 5

Vegetation and CO2 Keeling Curve from heartspring.net The annual CO 2 variations are due to carbon absorption by plants during spring and summer due to the fact that the land area in the northern hemisphere is much wider than in the southern hemisphere. This proves the massive role of vegetation in 6 sequestering CO 2

What truth?? 7

CC Impact on Agriculture Regionally variability with many uncertainties: Negative impact in warmer regions where water limits productivity of rain-fed crops (i.e., most of Turkey, southern Kazakhstan and the rest of Central Asia) Decreased water availability (reduced average precipitations, increased average temperatures, glaciers melting) Increased climatic variability (more droughts or floods) Changes in pests and weeds Some Positive impacts in colder regions (north Kaz.): Improved farming season thanks to increased temperatures (in colder climates) CO2 fertilization 8

CC impact on Agriculture Projected impacts from climate change in different EU regions 9

Outline 1. Agriculture and forestry are a major component of the climate change problem 2. But agriculture and forestry are also part of the solution 3. Carbon in soils Conservation Agriculture/No-Till 4. The example of Kazakhstan 5. The Agricultural Competitiveness Project 10

Agriculture has a role in both Mitigation & Adaptation Mitigation - Avoid the unmanageable Reforestation (implemented in Turkey, but without carbon trading) Soil Management Livestock Waste Management Adaptation - Manage the unavoidable Improved water resources management Development of new varieties for crops and pastures (shorter cycles) Increased use of insurances to mitigate climatic extremes Control new/stronger pests/weeds and animal diseases Improved farming technologies 11

Agriculture and Forestry jointly have more mitigation potential than energy Global Economic Mitigation Potential for Different Sectors by 2030 (IPCC Estimations) 12

Ag.: Lower Mitigation Cost than Energy Agricultural potential underlined in red Forestry potential underlined in green 13

Practices to increase soil carbon Avoid burning harvest residues Improve soil fertility and plant biomass production Improve arable soil management: Reduce/no tillage From Martial Bernoux, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD) 14

Outline 1. Agriculture and forestry are a major component of the climate change problem 2. But agriculture and forestry are also part of the solution 3. Carbon in soils Conservation Agriculture/No-Till 4. The example of Kazakhstan 5. The Agricultural Competitiveness Project 15

Conservation Agriculture Definition FAO definition: 1. Minimal Soil Disturbance/No Till: the tilled area must be less than 15 cm wide or 25% of the cropped area (whichever is lower) 2. Soil cover: Ground cover must be more than 30% 3. Crop rotation: Rotation should ideally involve at least 3 different crops. However, monocropping is not an exclusion factor Soil carbon mineralization Residues Decrease soil carbon stock Increase soil carbon stock From Martial Bernoux, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD) 16

Conservation Agriculture (CA) From Scientific American, 2008 17

The limits of ploughing Ploughing used to be essential to control weeds, but it causes soil erosion and consequent loss of fertility (with variations according to local conditions) CA/NT increases soil organic matter with the following benefits: reduced soil erosion, improved soil structure, reduced leaching, increased water infiltration, earthworms proliferation which creates channels that foster root growth 18

CA/NT and Soil Carbon sequestration Impact of adoption of conservation agriculture on soil carbon stocks Soil C accumulation Soil Carbon Conventional Agriculture Conservation Agriculture CA also promotes economy of fossil fuel consumption (permanent benefit) From Martial Bernoux, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD) 19

World Bank Report Carbon Sequestration in Agricultural Soils By Ademola Braimoh abraimoh@worldb ank.org 20

Soil Carbon Sequestration Website http://www-esd.worldbank.org/soilcarbonsequestration/ 21

CA/NT for adaptation CA/NT Conventional Source: Sandra Corsi (IFAD) from Des McGarry in Cina 22

CA/NT Increases Water Infiltration Mulch insulates extreme temperatures Better soil structure increases rainfall efficiency Studies prove that CA/NT increases rainfall infiltration Canada 13 Year No-Till Conv. Till (Wheat/Fallow) Organic Matter (%) 5.1 2.7 Infiltration (mm/hr) 69 38 Total of 80 mm of water applied in 1 hour. 23

CA/NT Increases Soil Moisture Soil moisture in 0-20cm soil depth: CA: Conservation Agriculture TT: Traditional Tillage China, March 2009 24

CA/NT Effects on Soil Structure Traditional Tillage 52 years CA/NT 20 feet apart samples in Ohio http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1ar5olgcc0 25

Short Term Benefit: Planting Immediately after Harvesting 26

CA Triple Win-Win Economic/Financial benefits Increased profitability by reducing soil preparation costs Possibility to have two crops/catch crops (in warmer climates) Reduced soil erosion Climate Change Adaptation Improving rainfall efficiency and soil moisture storing Increased soil organic matter, biodiversity and fertility Climate Change Mitigation Reduced green house gas emissions 27

Conservation Agriculture Adoption Global adoption in 2010/12 : ~125 Million ha (9% of arable land) Canada 13.5 USA 26.6 Paraguay 2.4 Brazil 25.5 120 100 80 60 40 20 - Evolution of Global Area under CA (Million Ha) 5-7 MORE MILLION Russia HA 2.0 PER * YEAR! Europe 1.1 Asia 2.5 Africa 0.4 1983-1987 1988-1992 1993-1997 1998-2002 2003-2007 Other South America 2.0 Argentina 19.7 Australia 12.0 From Martial Bernoux (IRD) on data from Derpsch and Friedrich (FAO), and *Roberts and Johnston, 2009 28

Obstacles to Adoption More benefits when technology is applied for several years Challenging technological changes and steep learning curve New weed management approach Increased cost for herbicides (at least initially) Challenges to update farm machinery Difficulty to handle crop residues Adoption is easier in larger farms, and more challenging (but not impossible nor less beneficial) in smaller farms. That is why adoption takes time 29

CA Adoption Takes Time Sales of CA equipment in Australia 30

CA/NT History 31

Milhões de hectares Production Increase BRASIL - EXPANSÃO DA ÁREA CULTIVADA EM PLANTIO DIRETO SAFRA VERÃO/SAFRINHA/INVERNO 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 72/73 73/74 74/75 75/76 76/77 77/78 78/79 79/80 80/81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/90 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 BRASIL 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.13 0.21 0.23 0.26 0.38 0.50 0.58 0.65 0.73 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.35 2.03 3.00 3.80 5.50 8.85 11.33 13.37 14.97 17.36 fonte: EMATER RS, EPAGRI-SC, EMATER-PR, CATI-SP, FUNDAÇÃO MS, APDC(CERRADO) 32

EX-Ante Carbon-balance Tool (EX-ACT) EX-ACT main objective Helping policy decision-making Helping to get additional funding One tool, several potentials Strengthening value chains Putting forward externalities Anticipating GHG and carbon impacts of agriculture and forestry activities in a development context http://www.fao.org/tc/exact/ex-act-tool/en/ Estimating the possible mitigation benefits of an investment project/ programme EX-ACT in few words Set of linked Microsoft Excel sheets (19) Based on land use and management practices Using IPCC default values (Tier 1) and/or ad hoc coefficients (Tier2) Comparing a situation without project and a situation with project Upgradable over time Possible up-scaling (watershed, national, regional levels)

Outline 1. Agriculture and forestry are a major component of the climate change problem 2. But agriculture and forestry are also part of the solution 3. Carbon in soils Conservation Agriculture/No-Till 4. The example of Kazakhstan 5. The Agricultural Competitiveness Project 34

Kazakhstan is a major wheat exporter Wheat production and exports (2008-2012) 25,000 22,732 Production (1000 MT) Exports (1000 MT) 20,000 Domestic Consumption (1000 MT) 17,051 Linear (Exports (1000 MT)) 15,000 10,000 5,000 12,538 8,254 7,500 7,600 6,152 9,638 4,862 6,200 11,844 9,841 7,400 6,800 6,500 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% exports/production 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 35

RUK is challenging the US as the largest wheat exporter in the world 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Wheat Production (000MT) United States RUK 45,000 Wheat Export (000MT) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 United States 1000 MT RUK 1000 MT 36

Wheat is produced mostly in the northern part of Kazakhstan KAZAKHSTAN Ranks 9 place all over the world in the area extent. Around 20 mln ha is used for crop production, mainly for wheat 14 mln ha Mostly spring wheat, planted in spring and harvested in autumn because winters are too cold 37

Rainfed wheat with limited precipitation 250-300 mm, rainfed 350-400 mm, rainfed 250 mm, rainfed 250-300 mm, rainfed 300-350 mm, irrigated, rainfed 38

The importance of stubble 50% of yield depends on soil moisture Snow 30-40 % of all precipitations Snow is taken away by the strong wind of the steppe or through runoff (causing erosion) Stubbles of preceding crop trap snow Snow melts more gradually and more water becomes available to growing crop The higher the stubble the better (35 to 40-45 cm for best results) 39

Snow trapping 40

CA/NT Adoption in Kazakhstan Kazakhstan together with Russia has the highest adoption in ECA The area has grown more than 200% during the last 5 years Now it is practiced on at least 1.85 million ha (CIMMYT, 2012 based on a rigorous new assessment) The country is ranked 9th in the world 41

CA/NT area in Kazakhstan 2000 1800 '000 hectares 1600 1400 1200 1000 1,850 800 600 1,220 1,440 400 600 200 0 2007 2010 2011 2012 42

Speed of adoption In terms of speed of adoption, during the last three years, Kazakhstan shares the 1 st position with China 43

US$/ha A good business for farmers Graph 2: Financial Benefits of Conservation Agriculture in Wheat Production in Northern Kazakhstan (F-IRR = 28%) 200 100 0-100 -200-300 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Investment Tillage saving Higher yield Chemical w eeding Benefit -400 44

Global Adoption of TA/No Till Conservation agriculture area (1000 ha) Conservation agriculture area as % of cultivated area (%) Ranking Order (as % of cultivated area) 1 United States of America 26,500 16 9 2 Argentina 25,553 80 1 3 Brazil 25,502 37 3 4 Australia 17,000 36 4 5 Canada 13,481 26 7 6 Russia 4,500 4 16 7 China 3,100 2 17 8 Paraguay 2,400 62 2 9 Kazakhstan 1,850 7 13 10 Bolivia 706 18 8 11 Uruguay 655 34 5 12 Spain 650 4 15 13 Ukraine 600 2 19 14 South Africa 368 2 18 15 Venezuela 300 9 11 16 France 200 1 20 17 Zambia 200 6 14 18 Chile 180 10 10 19 New Zealand 162 30 6 20 Finland 160 7 12 TOTAL 124,067 Others 1,000 Source: FAO Aquastat, 2012; Mission update for Kazakhstan Table 1: General overview of CA/No-till Adoption in the World 45

Kazakhstan - 2012 Incremental Estimates Wheat production is estimated to be 10.7 million tons wheat no-till area has produced an estimated 1.8 million tons of wheat Incremental wheat production only because of no-till area is thus about 0.7 million tons, equivalent to around 220 million dollars See report at http://www.eastagri.org/publications/pub_docs/info%20note _Print.pdf 46

Kazakhstan - Yield Increases 2.50 2.34 Wheat Productivity 2.00 1.58 1.50 1.00 0.65 1.02 0.83 1.23 Traditional technology (t/ha) No till technology (t/ha) 0.50 0.00 2010 2011 2012 47

National Benefits from CA/NT Adoption - Wheat only Thousand ton US$ million 1000 883 $300.0 $282.6 800 717 $250.0 $218.9 600 $200.0 400 200 364 $150.0 $100.0 $50.0 $75.0 0 2010 2011 2012 $0.0 2010 2011 2012 Percent of Total Production Million People Fed 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 7% 4% 4% 2010 2011 2012 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 6 5 3 2010 2011 2012 48

Kazakhstan - Impact of CA/NT Increased income and food security during the last three years: An estimated 580 million dollars incremental income; satisfied cereals requirements of about 5 million people annually Climate Change mitigation: Kazakhstan contributes to the annual sequestration of about 1.3 million tons of CO 2 equivalent to the emissions of 270,000 cars 49

Outline 1. Agriculture and forestry are a major component of the climate change problem 2. But agriculture and forestry are also part of the solution 3. Carbon in soils Conservation Agriculture/No-Till 4. The example of Kazakhstan 5. The Agricultural Competitiveness Project 50

The Agricultural Competitiveness Project (ACP) 42 out of 585 Competitive Grants awarded for no-till/minimum tillage activities. Beneficiary farmers have expanded the technology to the rest of their farm areas (about 45,000 ha) Extension activities of KazAgroInnovation contributed to further expansion through seminars in knowledge centers, direct consultancies and call centers. High demand topic 51

ACP Contribution Due to replication effect, extrapolation can be made for the entire country which would allow the assumption that some 350,000-400,000 ha of NT area have been promoted thanks to ACP Strengthened links between research centers and farmers reduced failures ACP supported the CIMMYT assessment 52

Kazakhstan CA/NT State of art and needs GOK and the national research system have done a lot: policy, incentives, investment, R&D The private sector has invested (specifically) over 200 million dollars CA/NT specialized machinery companies are expanding, but farmers depend excessively on machinery suppliers Some farmers reversed adoption because of organizational challenges To enable further expansion and avoid reversals more investment is required More farm/business specific R&D, Knowledge Dissemination, and expert advice 53

a good start, but still a work in progress!! 54

Thanks! 55