PROFILE: MANILA, THE PHILIPPINES Former Spanish and US colony Location: SE Asia 7,107 islands Philippines population: 103 million Urban population: 49% Rate of urbanization: 2.3% annually Manila population: 11.5 million
PHYSICAL HAZARDS IN THE PHILIPPINES & METRO MANILA Earthquakes Floods Cyclonic Storms Tsunamis Landslides Droughts Forest Fires Volcanoes Epidemics
VIDEO: TYPHOON ONDOY http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dj_psz7d58u
TYPHOONS
RISK: DEVELOPMENT AND LAND USE Urbanization Coastal real estate development Informal settlements in flood risk areas
RISK: INFRASTRUCTURE No sewage system Drainage maintenance
RISK: POPULATION
RISK: ECONOMIC STRUCTURES Capitalism State spending cuts
RISK: POVERTY Chronic disasters Lack of political representation Weak social networks
VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE
INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RISKS Adverse affect on all sectors Increase in number of extreme weather events Rising sea levels Increasing vulnerability
GOVERNMENT RESPONSE TO ONDOY TIMELINE Ondoy hits Sept 26, 2009 Pepeng hits Oct 3-9 Top-down recovery plan developed Nov Gov. Needs Assessment published Nov 26, 2009 Violence mars elections and hurts implementation of Gov Needs Assessment recommendations May 2010 Philippine Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act June 4, 2010 State of Calamity declared Oct 2 Damages and needs are estimated and assessed Oct Secondary effects and social stressors worsen conditions Nov Martial law declared Dec 4 Next cycle of Typhoons begins with Conson July 14 Formation and implementation of Hazard and vulnerability plans continues
TIPPING POINTS FOR AND BARRIERS TO CHANGE AND GOVERNMENT RESPONSE Quantification Reconstruction Foci Rural Production Flood Management Housing Disaster Risk Reduction Local governance Long-term Monitoring Prioritization of Action
FRAMEWORK FOR OPPORTUNITY/CHANGE Governmental adaptations to Typhoon Ondoy 2009 Un realized Community based Resilience (Pelling 2011)
WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR LEARNING RECOGNISING REACHABLE TRANSITIONS Working with Informal settlements Provision of services Movement beyond reconstruction A more holistic discourse on vulnerability Social and community based resilience
WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR LEARNING COMMUNITY BASED RESILIENCE Community level action supported by wider engagement with urban political and institutional structures. Building up local social capital. Shift away from an overreliance on central government. Power of vulnerable communities to develop strategies and actions to improve their resilience.
DISCUSSION QUESTIONS What is the role of the government in developing community-based resilience? How are learning opportunities limited or enhanced by the Philippine s (post)colonial context? What are the issues of having international aid be the main driver of disaster resilience?
REFERENCES Bankoff, G. (1999). A history of poverty: The politics of natural disasters in the Philippines, 1985-95. Pacific Review, 12(3), 381-420. Bankoff, G. (2003). Constructing Vulnerability: The Historical, Natural and Social Generation of Flooding in Metro Manila. Disasters, 27(3), 224-238. Baross, Paul (1990). Sequencing and Land Development: The price implications od legal and illegal settlement growth. From Baross & Van Linder. The Transformation of Land Supply systems in Third World Systems. Aldershot, Ellang :Averbury. Central Intelligence Agency. (2009). The World Factbook. Washington, DC: Central Intelligence Agency. Retrieve from https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/rp.html Cheng, M. H. (2009). Natural disasters highlight gaps in preparedness. The Lancet, 374(9698), 1317-1318. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61808-0 Gomez, J. (2009, Sep 28). Typhoon Overwhelms Philippines. The Guelph Mercury. Retrieved from http://search.proquest.com.ezproxy.library.ubc.ca/docview/356206465?accountid=14656 Herman Joseph, S. K. (2010). THE PHILIPPINES IN 2009: The fourth-quarter collapse. Southeast Asian Affairs,, 237-257. Retrieved from http://search.proquest.com.ezproxy.library.ubc.ca/docview/763153064?accountid=14656 Lu, Xinyan, Kevin K. W. Cheung, Yihong Duan, 2012: Numerical study on the formation of typhoon ketsana (2003). part i: roles of the meso-scale convective systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 100 120. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011mwr3649.1 MacLeod, C. (2009, October 5). Typhoon dodges recovering Philippine capital ; areas around manila struggle to rebound from ketsana's flooding. Usa Today, pp. 7A.
REFERENCES Pelling, M. (2003). The Vulnerability of Cities. London, UK: Earthscan Publications Ltd. Pelling, M.; Dill, K. (2010). Disaster politics: tipping points for change in the adaptation of sociopolitical regimes. Progress in Human Geography 34(1) (2010) pp. 21 37. Pelling, M. (2011). Adaptation to Climate Change: from resilience to transformation. NewYork, NY :Routledge Porio, E. (2011). Vulnerability, adaptation, and resilience to floods and climate change-related risks among marginal, riverine communities in Metro Manila. Asian Journal of Social Science, 39(4), 425-445. Typhoons Ondoy and Pepeng: Post-Disaster Needs Assessment. (2009) Government of the Republic of the Philippines, Asian Development Bank, European Commission, United Nations, AusAID, CIDA, GTZ, JICA, Royal Netherlands Government, and USAID. United Nations. (2010). Synthesis Report on Ten ASEAN Countries Disaster Risks Assessment: ASEAN Disaster Risk Management Initiative. Retrieved from http://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/publications/18872 Zoleta-Nantes, D. (2003). Differential impacts of flood hazards among the street children, the urban poor and residents of wealthy neighborhoods in Metro Manila, Philippines. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 7(3), 239-266.