BUILDING RESILIENCE IN URBAN CONTEXTS:

Transcription

1 BUILDING RESILIENCE IN URBAN CONTEXTS: Challenges and Progress in Evidence of What Matters OLGA PETRYNIAK Regional Resilience Director South and East Asia

2 CONCEPTUALIZING URBAN RESILIENCE

3 SESSION 1.2: APPLYING RESILIENCE THINKING TO URBAN SPACES Urbanization 54% to 70% by billion people in urban areas 90% in Africa and Asia

4 Urbanization Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, 2014

5 Mumbai Floods

6 Conceptualizing Resilience

7 Conceptualizing Resilience

8 Resilience Definitions. USAID ROCKEFELLER RESILIENCE MEASUREMENT - TWG The ability of people, households, communities, countries, and systems to mitigate, adapt to, and recover from shocks and stresses in a manner that reduces chronic vulnerability and facilitates inclusive growth Urban resilience is the capacity of individuals, communities, institutions, businesses, and systems within a city to survive, adapt, and grow no matter what kinds of chronic stresses and acute shocks they experience The capacity that ensures adverse stressors and shocks do not have longlasting adverse development consequences

9 BUILIDING RESILIENCE IN URBAN CONTEXTS Where do we start? PEOPLE SYSTEMS SHOCKS/ STRESSES CAPACITIES

10 BUILIDING RESILIENCE IN URBAN CONTEXTS RESILIENCE OF WHAT? Urban Systems How can we assess and measure whether urban systems retain functionality in the face of shocks and stresses?

11 BUILIDING RESILIENCE IN URBAN CONTEXTS RESILIENCE OF WHAT? Urban Systems Land and Natural Resources Housing Infrastructure Public Services Information Energy Water and Sanitation Health Governance Markets Food Supply

12 BUILIDING RESILIENCE IN URBAN CONTEXTS RESILIENCE OF WHAT? Urban Systems How can we assess and measure whether urban systems retain functionality in the face of shocks and stresses?

13 BUILIDING RESILIENCE IN URBAN CONTEXTS RESILIENCE TO WHAT? Shocks and Stresses Estimates suggest that by 2050, urban population exposed to cyclones will increase from 310 million to 680 million while exposure to major earthquake will increase from 370 million to 870 million (World Bank, 2013b)

14 BUILIDING RESILIENCE IN URBAN CONTEXTS RESILIENCE FOR WHOM? Impact Groups

15 BUILIDING RESILIENCE IN URBAN CONTEXTS RESILIENCE THROUGH WHAT? Resilience Capacities ABSORB ADAPT TRANSFORM

16 BUILIDING RESILIENCE IN URBAN CONTEXTS RESILIENCE THROUGH WHAT? Resilience Capacities

17 BUILDING RESILIENCE IN URBAN CONTEXTS URBAN RESILIENCE FRAMEWORKS ISET, ARUP, 100 RCs

18 RESILIENCE IN URBAN CONTEXTS WHERE DO WE FOCUS?

19 RESILIENCE IN URBAN CONTEXTS CASE 1: Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network Tarakan, Medium-Island, Pop 239,787 Palembang, Metropolitan- Inland Pop million Bandar Lampung Large-Coastal Pop 881,801 Cirebon, Medium-Coastal Pop 296,389 Pekalongan, Medium-Coastal Pop 281,434 Probolinggo, Medium-Coastal, Pop 217,06 Semarang, Metropolitan-Coastal Pop million Blitar, Medium-Inland City, Pop 131,968

20 ACCCRN Program Approach Scale up and policy influence National Partnerships with Key Ministries Shared Learning Dialogues Pilot of City Projects City to City Partnerships, APEKSI City Strategy Participatory Resilience Assessments Building City Teams Mobilizing City Stakeholders City Government Partnerships Community and local NGO Partnerships

21 CIREBON: City Resilience Review SHOCK & STRESS ES Diarrhea, Dengue, ARD Typhoon PHYSICAL IMPACT TO URBAN SYSTEM - Infrastructures damage - Falling trees - Electricity disruption - Traffic disruption NON-PHYSICAL IMPACT TO URBAN SYSTEM - Disturbing learning actvity for student - Decreasing work productivity - Increased expenses for medical - Material losses - Increased expenses for medical Drought Flood - Lack of clean water - Expenses for waterways construction - Declining of farmer income - Increasing operational expenses - Increasing epidemic of diseases - Infrastructures damage - Environment degradation - Traffic disruption - Increasing epidemic of diseases - Psychological aspect - Material losses Tidal Flood - Sedimentation - Sea water intrution - Infrastructures damage - Material losses - Repair expenses for house - Declining of groundwater resources Abrasion Landslid e - Change of shoreline - Reduction of mainland - Land rise phenomenon as an impact of sedimentation - Declining of pond farmers income - Environment degradation - Psychological aspect

22 City Resilience Review: INSTITUTIONAL RESILIENCE HUMAN RESILIENCE SOCIAL RESILIENCE ECONOMIC RESILIENCE PHYSICAL RESILIENCE ECOLOGICAL RESILIENCE

23 Resilience Dashboard-Institutional System Sub-System Proxy Indicator

24 Resilience Dashboard-Institutional system 1 Institutional Resilience Status 0.77 Subsystem 1.1 Internal External Product 1.00 Status Proxy indicator Status Indicator 2015 Status Knowledge Structure Crosssector Multistakeholder Crossboundary Commitment Assessment INS01 Participation of Local Government Institution in "urban climate resilience" workshop INS02 Capacity building of local government institution in "urban climate resilience" INS03 Knowledge saring mechanism of "urban climate resilience" INS04 Multistakeholder Structure of government institution INS05 Contribution and task of every stakeholder Inclusivity 1.00 INS06 Participation of non government organization in resilience actions INS07 Participation of private actor sector in resilience actions INS08 Participation of education institution sector in resilience actions INS09 Good cooperation pattern INS10 Policy advocation INS11 Local policy related to urban climate resilience INS12 Local financing of urban climate resilience action INS13 Climate Risk Assessment INS14 City Resilience Strategy INS15 Mainstreaming climate risk assessment and climate resilience strategy into spatial plan INS15 Mainstreaming climate risk assessment and climate resilience strategy into development plan

25 CASE 1: Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network Resilience status : Very High High Moderate Low Very low Sub System : 1 Internal 2 External 3 Product 4 Capital 5 Structure 6 Culture 7 Mechanism 8 Profile 9 Livelihood 10 Knowledge 11 Food 12 Health 13 Critical Service 14 Protective Service 15 Basic Service

26 Case 2: Understanding Urban Resilience through Post-Event Analysis

27 Capacities Systems Map: Chennai New developments meet drainage regulations Industrial zones shift to upstream locations as city center real-estate value increases Urban expansion into upstream areas Land set-aside as green space through effective land-use planning/zoning Forest/green cover expanded & maintained Increase in permeable surface Extreme rain event City infrastructure damaged less frequently Ground is saturated from previous rain High tide getting higher Cimate change results in more extreme weather events, number of cyclones, sea-level Service costs recovered in full Proper materials used to build roads, drainage channels Runoff rarely exceeds carrying capacity of municipal drainage system Engineers control flooding more effectively Less need to prioritize flooding business zones Prevention Effective operations & maintenance Effectively permitted modifications by building/ house owners Infrastructure efficiency maintained Green infrastructure solutions Drainage channels are not blocked Business Centers (main arteries) less likely to be flooded Industrial Zones less likely to be flooded Additional investments in flood protection Stable tax base, ability of households to pay for services SMEs are stable sources of income Employment rates unaffected Products and services are available SMEs remain in supply chain SMEs are not lost SMEs recover quickly Affordable insurance options available Insurance payouts are efficient and fair through controls Increased savings available Structures less affected Inventory less affected (stock, final products) Capital equipement less affected Staff do not lose homes Response RESILIENCE AT MERCY CORPS WCDRR SENDAI

28 Case 2: Transforming Chennai Key Findings Fragmented institutions and infrastructure create challenges for balancing economic growth with environmental safeguards The impact of the flood disaster on MSME has as much to do with the business and institutional environment, as on the severity of the event. Slow or inaccessible formal financing increases the economic impact of natural hazards on firms

29 Case 2: Understanding Urban Resilience through Post-Event Analysis Methodology being adopted by Zurich Alliance 2.0 Focus on Five Capital Framework (Social, Physical, Financial, Human, Natural) Post-Event Studies conducted in Colombia South Carolina (2014), Germany (2016), Central European Floods (2013), Balkans (2014)

30 Case 3: Outcome-based Urban Resilience Measurement? MULTIPLE TIMES AND SCALES

31 Case 3: Outcome-based Measurement? Urban Planning Capacity Institutional coordination mechanisms High Transparency Functional Disaster Committees Early Response Capacity High Rainfall Event Typhoons Relative Flooding Reduced HH Assets Preserved Employment Maintained

32 Case 3: Outcome-based Measurement?

33 DISCUSSION GROUPS Making Evidence Matter For Urban Resilience Discuss the unique considerations to assessment and measurement in urban areas: What do you see as the major challenges to urban resilience measurement? What type of evidence do policy-makers need to advance urban resilience? What types of practical methods and tools can we pull from?

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35 OLGA PETRYNIAK Regional Resilience Director