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Ben Kraaijenhagen MAN Nutzfahrzeuge AG Head of Central Division Product Strategy and Requirements Tel: +491605862953 E-mail: ben.kraaijenhagen@man.eu 2
Vision MAN sustainable & affordable transport t solutions Present Analysis & Assessment Strategy & Conception Configuration Market 2005 Environment Market Portfolio Concept PREP R&D Market 2025 Vision & Road map Trend & Scenarios Forecasts Freight, Volume, Cost Business Key drivers IAA 2008 IAA 2010 Strategic innovations Vehicle concepts Added services 3
Transport efficiency today Improvements during last 20 years minus 15 % CO 2 minus 86 % NO X minus 95 % Particle minus 84 % Noise minus 75% Maintenance MAN F90 Truck of the Year 1987 TGX Truck of the Year 2008 4
Environment Trends 2020-2035-2050 2035 2050 Market Market Environment Market Portfolio Concept PREP R&D 2005 2025 Legislations Economy Finance Markets Sources Foresight Requirements Technologies Product & Added Services Road Rail Water Air Logistics 5
Environment Energy & sources, growth of population 2020-2035-20502035 2050 Climate Change Carbon Foot Print Internalization of external costs Population Growth Urbanization Economy Finance Regulations Legislation Global / supra-national Legislations Markets Open business Increased I d demand d Cost pressure, TCO & P Energy & sources Increased demand Security of water & energy Resource Sources Environment & Markets Technologies Innovation New materials and forms New N vehicle concepts New systems ILS&ITS Product Added & services Growth in Welfare Road Sustainability Quality of life Rail Water Air Cooperation EMS Containers Logistics Transport and mobility Freight and people Differentiation 6
Environment & logistics Trends 2020-2035-20502035 2050 Environment 2020 2050 Cost of transport 2020 2050 Reduction emissions, TCO (total cost of ownership) CO 2, NO x, etc. Reduction fossils Productivity (efficiency of transport) Minimising congestion Driver Minimising accidents 7
Future global logistic concept city, distribution, tion traction and long haul < 500km Factory Logistic Centre or Hub Holiday destination (mega) city Construction area < 100km CO 2 CO 2, NO x,dba City Zero emission outskirts Harbor > 500km Inner ring Limited emissions Distribution Outer ring Delivery and collection of goods & materials Transport of people Logistics of freight and people Source: IPCC, G20, G8, Freight Vision, Heavy Route, Green Cities by air, rail, road & water 8
CO2 balance 2010 in the road transport industry CO 2 balance 2010 City Distribution Traction Long Haul km / year 50.000 150.000 Load in t (% full load) 400 4,00 25,00 tkm 200.000 3.750.000 Consumption ltr. / 100km 16,00 33,00 Consumption ltr. / year 8.000 49.500 CO 2 kg / year (1l Diesel = 2,63 kg CO2) 21.200 131.175 CO 2 g / tkm 106,0 35,0 Low production of CO 2 (kg/year) High CO 2 (g/tkm) High production of CO 2 (kg/year) Low CO 2 (g/tkm) Example of random application 9
CO2 road map 2050 in the road transport industry Long Haul Traction Distribution City -/-20%? City: Zero Emission? -/-70% -/-80% 2010 2020 2035 2050 Segment dedicated products CO 2 reduction necessary throughout all market segments CO 2 reduction forces the development of new innovative technologies (materials, forms, systems, concepts) 10
Development 2020-2050 New technologies and vehicle concepts Invest Step 1: Fuel Consumption Step 2: Alternative Fuels Dual Fuel Step 3: Concepts Mild Hybrid (Start/Stop) Step 4: Concepts Full Hybrid (ZEV) Step 5: Full Electro (>100km) Step 6: e.g. Fuel Cells CO 2 Reduction Intelligent Logistic Systems 2005 2025? Intelligent Transport Systems 11
New vehicle concepts Invest CO 2 Reduction MAN Efficient line -8% 2005 2025? MAN Concept S -25% 12
Orientation on EMS Today 14t/40t 12t 20t Curb weight/gcw 14t/40t Driven axle load Goods / load Tomorrow 18t/50t 10t 30t Tomorrow 20t/60t 9t 40t - New vehicle concepts -Optimal use of modules -more volume/payload lower axle loads - lower labor costs lower fuel consumption 2005 2025? EMS + Concept S -/- 35% CO 2 (gr/tkm goods) 13
New vehicle concepts Invest A E Motor Electricity Battery A = Alternator E Motor Battery Parallel lhybrid System (PHS) Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV) < 15 % CO 2 reduction potential > 30 % CO 2 reduction potential* CO 2 Reduction Hybrid <-15% 2005 2025? Full hybrid >-30% 14
Technology road map 2050 2010 2020 2035 2050-20% CO 2 (Basis: 2010) -70% CO 2 (Basis: 2010) -80% CO 2 (Basis: 2010) Focus on cost effectiveness / gr/tkm goods 2016 CO 2 regulation New regulations, legislations, city toll, emission fees Zero Emission Zones Dedicated emission friendly vehicles General EU targets Limits for commercial vehicles not further defined Optimization of fuel consumption in focus 1. Evolution of today's technology 2. New technologies 3. Advanced technologies 15
Thank you Ben Kraaijenhagen MAN Nutzfahrzeuge AG Head of Central Division Product Strategy and Requirements Tel: +491605862953 E-mail: ben.kraaijenhagen@man.eu 16