Co-benefits as a Policy Instrument attracting Global Attention IES Korea project Cost-benefit analysis of Integrated Environmental Strategies in Seoul Metropolitan area Yeora Chae yrchae@kei.re.kr
Contents o Concept of co-benefits o Seoul Metropolitan area o Research scope and tasks o Preliminary results o Future research tasks
Fossil 화석연료 Fuel consumption 사용 Air pollutants GHG AQ measures a. DPF b. Catalytic converter c. Low sulfur fuel d,e,f,. IES 1. LEV 2. District heating 3. Renewable energy 4, 5, GHG measures i. Carbon storage ii. Forest management iii, iv, Air quality improvement Human health benefit GHG reduction Air quality Human health Cost GHG reduction
GHG policy GHG abatement Co-benefits : air quality improvement Health Benefits AQ policy AQ improvement Health Benefits Co-benefits : emission reduction
Objective o To develop a cost-effective integrated environmental strategy improving the air quality and reducing GHG o To analyze air quality management measures and GHG reduction measures for their co-benefit on emissions reduction o Cost-benefit analysis considering cost, GHG reduction effects, and health impact
Major research question What is a most cost effective way to improve air quality and reduce GHG emission in SMPA?
Air Pollution Trends in Seoul ppm 0.055 0.050 0.045 0.040 0.035 0.030 0.025 0.020 0.015 0.010 0.005 0.000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2001Year μg /m³ PM10 ( μg /m³) NO₂ (ppm) O₃ (ppm) SO₂ (ppm)
Why air quality problem is so serious in SMPA? o Too many people! o Too many cars!
Seoul Metropolitan Area Category Unit National Total Seoul Metropolitan Area Seoul Incheon Gyeonggi Area Km 2 99,852.0 11,700.5 (12%) 605.5 958.0 10,137.0 Population Thousand 48,289 22,525 (47%) 10,331 2,582 9,612 Population Density Person/km 2 483 1,925 (4times) 17,062 2,634 948 Gross Regional product Billion 561,789 251,220 114,153 25,513 111,554 Company Number of Company 3,051,482 1,381,566 725,569 147,081 508,916 Employee Person 14,336,604 7,175,802 3,878,833 699,233 2,597,736 Manufacturing Company Number of Company 331,762 170,079 76,017 20,507 73,555 Vehicle Thousand 12,914 5,983 (47%) 2,550 697 2,736
Phase III Part 2 Research Framework Analysis on current and future trends of Air Pollutants and GHG emissions in Seoul Metropolitan Area Analysis of SAQMP effects on Air Pollutants emission Analysis of SAQMP effects on GHG emission Cost analysis of AQMP Developing IES Scenarios - Prioritizing measures by cost-effectiveness - Discovering the most cost-effective Integrated Env l measures Analysis of GRP effects on Air Pollutants emission Analysis of GRP effects on GHG emission Cost analysis of GRP Air Quality Modeling Health Impact Assessment Cost-Benefit Analysis AQMP : Air Quality Management Plan GRP : GreenHouse Gas Reduction Plan
Air Pollutants and GHG Emission by source in 2003 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% CO NOx SOx PM10 VOCs Total GHG SMPA GHG Waste Treatment Transportation Organic Solvent Use Non-industrial Combustion Energy Transportation and Storage Production Process Manufacturing Combustion Energy Industry Combustion
Special Law on Air Quality Improvement in SMPA o AP and GHG reductions by the Special Law in SMPA Source Regulation Detailed reduction measure Reduced AP Reduced GHG Emission cap and Trade Total amount regulation and Emissions Trading SOx, NOx, PM10 Fuel regulation Expansion of areas using low-sulfur fuel SOx, PM10 Emission allowance standard Stricter Emission Allowance Standard Introduction of emission taxes on Nox NOx, PM10 Stricter Emission Allowance Standard Point Source Incineration facility management Voluntary environmental agreement Closure of small-scale incineration facilities Expansion of the banned-material list Incineration capacity enlargement Increase of environment-friendly firms Agreement on voluntary environmental agreement SOx, NOx, PM10, VOC SOx, NOx, PM10 Distribution and training of Manuel for Best Facility Management by industry Support and training Environmental diagnosis, consulting, investment and financial support for small businesses SOx, NOx, PM10 Cooperation Program on Air Pollution Reduction between Major Companies and outsourcing firms Financial support for facility investment
Phase III Part 2 Special Law on Air Quality Improvement in SMPA (Cont d) Source Regulation Detailed reduction measure AP emission reduction GHG emission reduction Fuel switching Conversion of anthracite into natural gas in residential and commercial sector SOx, NOx, PM10, VOC Expansion of areas using low-sulfur and clean fuels SOx, NOx, PM10, VOC Area Source District airconditioning and heating NOx management district air-conditioning and heating Small-scale Community Energy System (CES) Low-NOx boilers SOx, NOx, PM10 SOx, NOx, PM10, VOC Encouraging the use of Alternative energy: solar-energy SOx, NOx, PM10, VOC Energy demand management Indoor temperature standards Eco-building certification SOx, NOx, PM10, VOC
Phase III Part 2 Special Law on Air Quality Improvement in SMPA (Cont d) Source Regulation Detailed reduction measure Reduced AP Reduced GHG Vehicle manufacture Stricter emission allowance standards for vehicle manufacture Low emission vehicles NOx, PM10, VOC NOx, PM10, VOC DPF/SCR installation NOx, PM10, VOC DOC installation PM10, VOC Vehicle operation Conversion to LPG old vehicle retirement NOx, PM10, VOC NOx, PM10, VOC Mobile Source Reforming Operating vehicle management system : vehicle inspections and maintenance, RSD (Remote Sensing Device), emission inspections and maintenance, OBD (On-board Diagnostics), etc. Stricter emission allowance standards PM10, VOC Two-wheeled vehicle Stricter quality standards for engine-oil VOC, NOx Regular inspection system Fuel quality Stricter quality standards for fuels SOx Designated Environmentally vulnerable area Congestions charges Traffic demand management Expansion of public transporting infrastructures Industrial traffic demand management SOx, NOx, PM10 Parking demand management Encouraging the use of bicycles
Phase III Part 2 GHG Reduction Plan in the Env l Sector category Detailed reduction measure AP emission reduction GHG emission reduction Energy management in building Eco-building certification SOx, NOx, PM10 Transportation sector Stricter regulations on idling engines Low emission vehicle SOx, NOx, PM10 SOx, NOx, PM10 Expanding Industrial Wastewater Treatment Plants Foul odor CH 4 Expanding Livestock Excretions Treatment Plants Foul odor CH 4 Waste management Expanding Wastewater Treatment Plants Resource recovery of landfill gas Foul odor SOx, NOx, PM10, Foul odor, CH 4, CH 4 Food waste Recycling System Foul odor, CH 4 Encouraging clean fuel use (e.g. Bio-Diesel) SOx, NOx, PM10
NOx Emission Reduction from Air Quality Management Measures kg 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Early retirement-heavy truck DPF urban bus DPF heavy truck DPF m iscellaneous bus Early retirement-m edium van LPG medium van Early retirement-s mall van Solar energy LPG sm all truck DOC sm all truck Low emission Electric car LPG sm all RV Low emission LPG s mall van Low emission Hybrid car Fuel switch to LNG
PM10 Emission Reduction from Air Quality Management Measures kg 25 20 15 10 5 0 Early retirement-heavy truck DPF urban bus DPF reservation bus LPG medium truck DPF medium truck Early retirement-medium van LPG small van LPG small RV LPG medium van Low emission-electric car Low emission-diesel-heavy... DOC small van Low emission-diesel-medi.. District air conditioning & h... Solar energy
Emission Reduction from Air Quality Management Measures kg 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Solar energy Diesel hea vy va n CNG BUS Fuel switch to LNG Diesel hea vy va n Electric car Diesel m edium vtruck Diesel small truck Diesel m edium van Hybrid car LPG sma ll van LPG sma ll truck LPG ca r LPG installa tion District air conditioning & hea ting
Relationship between NOx and emission Reduction from Each Measures 80 NOx reduction (kg) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Fuel switch to LNG District air conditioning & h e a tin g Solar energy Low emis s ion Elec tric car Low emis s ion sma ll LPG car Low emis s ion sma ll LPG van Low emis s ion Hybrid 0 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 CO2 reduction (kg)
Relationship between PM10 and emission Reduction from Each Measures PM10 reduction (kg) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 CO2 reduction (kg) Fuel switch to LNG District air conditioning & heating Solar energy Low emission Electric car Low emission Diesel medium van Low emission Diesel heavy van Low emission Diesel small truck Low emission Diesel medium truck Low emission Diesel heavy truck LPG installation
Relationship between NOx and PM10 emission Reduction from Each Measures NOx reduction (kg) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 PM10 reduc tion (kg) Fuel switch to LNG District air conditioning & heating Solar energy Low emission Electric car DPF medium van DPF urban bus DPF reservation bus DPF miscellaneous bus DPF medium truck DPF heavy truck DOC small van DOC small truck LPG small RV LPG medium RV LPG small van LPG medium van LPG small truck LPG medium truck Early retirement-small van Early retirement-medium van Early retirement-heavy van Early retirement-small truck Early retirement-medium truck Early retirement-heavy truck
Co-benefit of Seoul Air Quality Management Plan: Emission Reduction (2014) Source Measure Amount of Reduction (ton/year) Electric Vehicles 41,604 Hybrid Vehicles 166,997 Mobile Source Low Emission Vehicles Natural Gas Vehicles LPG Vehicles Gasoline Vehicles 123,785 33,761 402,169 Vehicle Operation LPG Installation 8,730 Total 777,046 Fuel Regulation Conversion of anthracite into LNG 21,980 Supply of Group Energy District heating 25,664 Area Source CES Supply CES to Non-industrial combustion/commercial and public organization 123,645 Supply of Alternative Energy Increase the supply of solar energy 225,226 Total 396,515 Point source Fuel Regulation Conversion of Coal and B-C oil into LNG Low Nox boiler 2,838,000 4,245,000 Total Total 7,083,000 8,256,561
GHG emission from Environmental Side: waste and Transportation Million ton Control BAU 134.4 114.3 93.9 21.56 35.09 92.7 99.3 2003 2010 2015 year
GHG emission Reduction Target from Environmental Side ( MT) 2010 2015 Resource Recovery of LFG 4.8 4.4 Waste Waste Reduction Restriction on Landfill of Food Waste 0.5 2.2 0.6 2.7 Total 7.5 7.7 Increase the Number of Natural Gas Buses 0.22 0.35 Restriction on Idling of Cars 0.07 0.08 Transportation Low emission vehicle 0.03 0.38 emission standard 13.74 26.59 Total 14.06 27.39 Total (GHG emission Reduction Target) 21.56 35.09
Next steps o To analyze emission reduction from GHG abatement measures o To estimate cost of each measures o To develop emission scenarios BAU Air quality GHG reduction IES
Next steps (Cont d) o Air quality modeling: EPA- MODELS3/CMAQ o Health impact analysis: BenMAP o Cost-benefit analysis
Thank You! yrchae@kei.re.kr Tel:82-2-380-7765 Climate Change Research Center Korea Environment Institute