Energy and Environmental Implications of Carbon. Case of Kathmandu Valley

Transcription

1 International Workshop on Towards Low Carbon Cities: Understanding and Analyzing Urban Energy and Carbon Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan February 2009 Energy and Environmental Implications of Carbon Emission i Reduction Targets: Case of Kathmandu Valley Ram M. Shrestha and Salony Rajbhandari Asian Institute of Technology Thailand 1

2 Source: ICIMOD,

3 Kathmandu Valley The capital city of Nepal Area: 899 km 2 Population in 2005: 1.85 million About 51% of the total national urban population Major user of electricity and other modern fuels in the country 29% of national electricity consumption in 2005 Over 55% of national oil consumption High growth of vehicle stock: CAGR during : 12.7% Growing air quality problem PM10: 236 to 606 ppm > WHO standard (70 ppm) TSP: above 1000 ppm > WHO standard ( ppm) 3

4 Objectives and Methodology To analyze energy supply ppy structure and cumulative CO 2 emission level in the base case during To analyze the effects of selected carbon reduction targets t on: energy supply- and technology- mix emissions of local air pollutants Sectoral contributions to CO 2 reductions Methodology A long term energy system model of Kathmandu valley (based on MARKAL framework) used for the study 4

5 Structure of Present Energy Use 5

6 Structure of Total Energy Consumption in Kathmandu Valley % 2% 8% 15% Coal Electricity Petroleum Products Renewables Other Fossils 46% TEC: PJ Oil has the predominant share (46%), followed by renewables 6

7 Sectoral Shares in Total Energy Consumption Agricultural 0.11% Commercial 9.81% Transport 31.24% Industrial 18.90% 2005 Residential 39.93% TEC: PJ Combined share of Residential, transport and industrial sectors: about 89% 7

8 Residential Sector Energy Structure in 2005 Biogas 0.07% Solar 0.01% Electricity 24% Fuelwood 41.83% Kerosene 15.92% 2005 Animal Dung 042% 0.42% Agricultural Residue 11.34% Coal 0.14% LPG 655% 6.55% Total: PJ Biomass 53%, Electricity 24%, oil 16%, LPG 6.5% 8

9 Commercial Sector Energy Structure in 2005 Charcoal 7% Fuelwood 7% Solar 0% Electricity 23% LPG 6% 2005 Kerosene 57% Total: 4.03 PJ Oil 57%, electricity 23%, LPG 6%, biomass 14% 9

10 Transport Sector Energy Structure in 2005 Jet Fuel 18.90% Electricity 0.18% LPG 3.60% CNG 0.00% Diesel 40.05% 2005 Gasoline 37.26% Total: PJ Based almost entirely on petroleum products 10

11 Industrial Sector Energy Structure in 2005 Fuelwood 21% Electricity 12% Kerosene 1% Diesel 2% Other Petroleums 3% Agricultural Residue 15% 2005 Lignite 6% Coal 40% Total: 6.71 PJ Coal and lignite 46%; biomass 36%, electricity 12%, oil 6% 11

12 Description of Cases Base case: no carbon reduction policies Carbon Emission Reduction Cases ER10: Cumulative carbon emission reduction target of 10% from the base case emission level ER20 ER30 ER40 12

13 Base Case Analysis 13

14 Total Energy Consumption during Primary Energy Supply TJ Other Fossils Renewables Petroleum Products Electricity Coal Year - CAGR of TEC: 6% -TEC in 2050 almost 13 times of that in Substantial increase in electricity use 14

15 Structure of Total Energy Consumption in 2005 vs % 2% 8% 15% Coal Electricity 4% 15% Petroleum Products Renewables % Other Fossils 46% 29% 42% Share of electricity increases to 42% in 2050 Petroleum products share reduces to 29% in 2050 Coal Electricity it Petroleum Products Renewables Other Fossils 15

16 Sectoral Shares in Energy Consumption Transport 31.24% Agricultural 0.11% Commercial 9.81% Industrial 18.90% Transport 21.83% Agricultural 0.15% Commercial 19.29% 2005 Residential 39.93% 93% 35,790 TJ Industrial 19.50% 2050 Residential 39.23% 443,350 TJ Total energy consumption to increase by 12 times during (CAGR: 5.6%). Commercial sector share in energy consumption increases from 9% in 2005 to 19% in 2050; transport sector share decreases to 21%. 16

17 CO 2 Emissions from Energy Use during Nearly 9-fold increase in CO 2 Emissions by 2050 (CAGR: 5.2%) Total emission in 2005 = 1,499 ktons Transport, Industrial and Commercial sectors- 3 largest emitters Sectoral CO 2 Emissions ktons Year Transport Residential Industrial Commercial Agricultural 17

18 PM 10 Emissions from Energy Use during in Base Case Total PM 10 emissions in 2005 = 3.7 ktons To increase by 5.5 times by 2050 (CAGR of 3.85%) Sectoral PM 10 Emissions ktons Year Transport Residential Industrial Commercial Agricultural PM 10 concentration in the valley generally already exceeds the 24-hour average standard value set by NAAQS A major air quality problem! 18

19 Emission of air pollutants in Base Case Emissions kt tons Year SO2 NOX CO TSP PM2.5 HC Pollutant Average Growth Rate, % Pollutant Average Growth Rate, % SO TSP 3.82 NO X 4.57 PM X 2.5 CO 4.28 HC

20 CO 2 Reduction Case Analysis 20

21 Energy egymix under CO 2 Reduction Targets Primary Energy Supply Mix under CO 2 Limits TJ Renewables Other Fossils Coal Petroleum Products 0 Base Case ER10 ER20 ER30 ER40 Electricity Cases Increasing use of electricity: Electricity use in ER40 case 44 % higher than that in the base case. Petroleum share: declines to 23% in ER40 case (32% in the base case). 21

22 CO 2 emission under different cases during , ktons ktons Base ER10 ER20 ER30 ER Year Total Sectoral CO 2 Emissions during , ktons CAGR of CO 2 emission: 5.2% in Base case and 3.8% in ER40 Transport sector - the largest CO 2 emitter, followed by industrial, commercial and residential sectors Case Annual Growth Rate of CO 2 Base 5.21% ER % ER % ER % ER % 22

23 Sectoral Contribution in CO 2 Reduction from different Emission Reduction Cases Sectoral shares in CO2 reduction under Sector ER10 ER20 ER30 ER40 Agricultural 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% Commercial 60.4% 52.4% 40.4% 31.9% Industrial -0.1% 3.3% 8.5% 8.4% Residential 21.6% 19.6% 15.9% 15.1% Transport 17.1% 23.7% 34.5% 44.1% Total CO2 reduction, ktons At targets up to ER30, commercial sector is the biggest contributor to CO2 reductions; -Transport sector contributes most at ER40. -Contributions of the transport and industrial sectors increasing with ERT -Contributions of the residential and commercial sectors decreasing with ERT 23

24 Environmental Co-benefits of CO 2 Emission Reductions PM 10 Emissions PM 2.5 Emissions ktons Base Case ER10 ER20 ER30 ER40 Transport Residential Industrial Commercial Agricultural ktons Base Case ER10 ER20 ER30 ER40 Transport Residential Industrial Commercial Agricultural Cases Cases TSP Emissions NO X Emissions ktons Base Case ER10 ER20 ER30 ER Transport Residential ktons 800 Industrial Commercial 200 Agricultural 0 Base Case ER10 ER20 ER30 ER40 Transport Residential Industrial Commercial Agricultural Cases Cases 24

25 Environmental Co-benefits of CO 2 Emission Reductions SO 2 Emissions ktons Base Case ER10 ER20 ER30 ER40 Transport Residential Industrial Commercial Agricultural Cases CO Emissions HC Emissions ktons Base Case ER10 ER20 ER30 ER40 Cases Transport 3000 Residential 2500 Industrial ktons 2000 Commercial 1500 Agricultural Base Case ER10 ER20 ER30 ER40 Cases Transport Residential Industrial Commercial Agricultural 25

26 Total Discounted Cost under CO 2 Emission Reduction Targets Case Million 2005 prices % increase Base 19,491 - ER10 19, ER20 19, ER30 20, ER40 21,

27 Conclusion and Remarks Total energy consumption in Kathmandu valley would increase by 12 fold during in the base case. There would be a substantial increase in the share of electricity and decrease in the oil share. Commercial sector share in energy consumption would increase from 9% in 2005 to 19% in CO2 emission would be increased by nearly a 9 fold by Transport sector is the largest CO2 emitter, followed by industrial, commercial and residential sectors. Commercial sector is the biggest contributor to CO2 reduction for up to ER30, while the transport sector contributes most at ER40. Electricity share in total energy consumption increases with ERT (due to hydropower. Electricity share in transport would increase for targets above ER10. Fuel cell and biodiesel in transport would be cost effective under ER40. Substantial reduction in local air pollutants would result under ER cases. Total discounted cost would increase by 0.24% in ER10 to 9% in 27 ER40.

28 Thank you th 28

29 Energy Mix during in Transport Sector, % Fuel Share, % Fuel Type Base Case ER10 ER20 ER30 ER40 Biodiesel CNG Diesel Hydrogen Gasohol Gasoline Jet Fuel LPG Electricity Gasohol use under all ER cases, biodiesel use only under ER40 - Oil share declining; electricity share increasing above ER10 - Electricity-- hydro based 29

30 Effect of CO 2 Reduction on Fuel Mix during in Commercial Sector Percentage Share in Fuel use Fuel Type Base Case ER10 ER20 ER30 ER40 Electricity LPG Kerosene Charcoal Fuel wood Solar Substitution of petroleum products and charcoal with electricity (hydropower) in ER cases 30

31 Major Technologies Needed to Meet CO 2 Emission Reduction Targets Agricultural Sectors Technologies Efficient electrical pumps Commercial Efficient air conditioners, electricity/ renewable based cooking devices, electric and solar water heating devices, CFL. Industrial Electricity and renewable based process heat and boiler technologies, efficient lighting devices. Residential Efficient air conditioners, electric cooking devices, electric or solar water heating devices, CFL. Transport Biofuel vehicles, fuel cell vehicles 31