Cascading Events and Consequences: why we need a normative framework for ecological resilience. Deborah Brosnan

Cascading Events and Consequences: why we need a normative framework for ecological resilience Deborah Brosnan brosnan@vt.edu

Resilience 1. ECOLOGICAL AND EVOLUTIONARY PROCESSES THAT CREATE AND AFFECT RESILIENCE AND CHANGE IN NATURAL SYSTEMS. 2. EVOLUTION OF THE HUMAN-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEM (Resilience of the humanecosystem interaction; Co-evolution or how one determines the resilience of the other). 3. THE CURRENT AND MESSY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HUMANS AND THEIR ENVIRONMENT. Scientific, values, political systems.

Resilience 1. ECOLOGICAL AND EVOLUTIONARY PROCESSES THAT AFFECT RESILIENCE AND CHANGE IN NATURAL SYSTEMS. 2. EVOLUTION OF THE HUMAN-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEM 3. THE CURRENT AND MESSY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HUMANS AND THEIR ENVIRONMENT. Scientific, values, political systems. Ecosystems have resilience as a property Humans rely on that resilience Humans are now a driving force on ecological resilience Ecological-human resilience is more strongly co-evolving.

Ecological Resilience Ecological Resilience -Ability to absorb and rebound from a disturbance, back to a system with same general features and drivers. Or Alternative Stable State Ecosystem does not rebound and shifts to an alternative stable state that is different in composition and dynamics from pre-event ecosystem. This new system has it s own and new resilience. Kelp Forest is alternative stable state of Pink Corraline Algae Barren (and vice versa)

Resilience Hollings et al 1973 and subsequently The magnitude of disturbance that a system can experience before it shifts into a different state (stability domain) with different controls on structure and function. Hollings 1979 Scientific Environment: Stability versus Instability debate: Equilibrium versus Non Equilibrium Mc Arthur (USA), later Diamond (USA) V Andrewartha and Birch (Australia) later Strong et al in USA

Resilience Hollings et al work gave rise to the concept of the INTERMEDIATE DISTURBANCE HYPOTHESIS. Systems are subject to periodic disturbances on spatial and temporal scales, and intermediate levels of disturbance create maximum diversity

Spatial and Temporal Mosaic

Resilience: Shifting Mosaic

Disturbance- Resilience There are predictable winners and losers from each disturbance event. Stability is created by the temporal and spatial mosaic

Telluride: Nabakov, Lolita, 40 butterfly species and evolution. Gradual evolution and gradual change, gives appearance of greater stable persistence that exists.

Resilience ECOSYSTEM ECO-HUMAN INTERACTION HUMAN

Key Messages Human resilience is affected by ecological health/resilience and by human s relationship with their natural environment and resources e.g. fisheries, forestry, agriculture, tourism, solace. This nature and extent of the relationship is frequently poorly considered and understood. DRM and resilience planning rarely accounts for it. Disaster effects on humans through their environment are long lasting. Human s highest investments in nature conservation and natural resource protection are often the most vulnerable in a disaster e.g. national parks, endangered species.the resources to protect and recover these investments are not available after a disaster. Resilience is tested through cascading effects of extreme events Recovery actions and policies often inadvertently decrease resilience, exacerbating the environmental and human costs and consequences, and make communities more vulnerable long-term. Strategic science helps to build greater resilience of ecosystems and people through their interactions with ecosystems. But in the absence of human debate and decision-processes, building resilience of the human-nature interaction will always fall short. Mechanisms can be put in place and are needed.

Ecosystem-Human Resilience There is a pattern and cadence to the human-environment resilience relationship that seems to play out across most natural and human induced hazards. Examples

Scenario Planning: SAFRR Tsunami Scenario (California) 1. Scientific approach that exposes interdependencies. 2. Forecasted impacts have been observed in other natural and human-caused disasters 3. Event affects resilient and less-resilient/degraded ecosystems and species. Acknowledgements to our SAFRR team, especially fishery co-authors Anne Wein (US Geological Survey), Rick Wilson (California Geological Survey) and Patrick Lynett (University of S. California) for simulations SAFRR Tsunami Scenario Impacts on California Ecosystems, Species, Marine Natural Resources, and Fisheries http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/g/index.html Simulations: http://coastal.usc.edu/plynett/research/movies.html

Beach and Coastal Habitats California s coastal and nearshore marine habitats have been significantly degraded and many species are imperiled. State ranked as one of the four most ecologically degraded states in the country (CI) Species and ecosystems are not as resilient as they once were and many do not rebound from disturbances without intervention. Beach Loss (>66% eroding, extensive renourishment and fill) Pollution Overfishing Habitat Loss (Development) At Risk and Endangered Species (800 species at risk).

Patrick Lynett

Beach and Coastal Habitats All low-lying beaches and coastal habitats vulnerable and many heavily inundated. 96 Protected habitat area coastal parks inundated. BEACHES - 266,000-1 million visitors on day of tsunami. Beaches are key natural resources and ecosystem. Protection, habitat, Tourism. Impacts: Inundation, sand loss, debris, contaminants, loss of use. Natural recovery of sand unlikely in many areas- Controversy and Cost for beach restoration: Contaminants and clean up

Recreation Coastal Protection

Beach Erosion

Low lying beaches and marshes

Beach and Coastal Habitats All low-lying beaches and coastal habitats vulnerable and many heavily inundated. 96 Protected habitat area coastal parks inundated. COASTAL MARSHES : Buffer and absorb waves reducing run-up. Positive effects of nutrient input from sea. But adjacent to urban areas they become repositories of debris. Contaminants and clean up. Many Restoration Sites.

Santa Barbara/Goleta

COLORADO FLOODS: HABITAT RESTORATION SITE LOST

Beach and Coastal Habitats All low-lying beaches and coastal habitats vulnerable and many heavily inundated. 96 Protected areas coastal parks inundated. SAND DUNES- Protective buffering by dunes and shallow nearshore habitats. Storms- Coastal Habitats protect between US$ 90 million $ 12 billion in property values per coastal county in California (Nature 2013). In tsunamis, protection will be lower but we will see some protection.

Beach and Coastal Habitats Nearshore shallow water marine habitats Vulnerable, including fishing grounds. Habitats- damage, buried in debris, and/or contaminants.

Endangered Species Snowy Plover Black Abalone White Abalone Clapper Rail Spring Run Salmon Gobies, Sturgeon, Smelt, Sea Turtle Endangered Coastal Plants FISHERIES- Sea urchins, crab, Shellfish beds buried $218million/yr

Fisheries

Fish and Fisheries At risk, $218 million/yr in landing value of which >$42 million in Los Angeles. (not accounting for related industries e.g. fish processing). All fishing ports heavily affected. Recovery >1 year. (i) Impact experienced directly through Ecological and Environmental Factors Near shore invertebrate species and fishing habitats at highest risk, including crab fishery, urchins etc. (Similar to Tohoku) Coastal pelagics less vulnerable directly. Marine species e.g. sea urchins, are sheared and swept away; juveniles especially vulnerable, leading to recruitment loss and delayed fishing declines. (some areas in Japan Tohoku: 90% of juveniles urchins lost) ii. Cascading Effects (inter-dependencies).

Dungeness Crab

Coastal Pelagics

Over $100 million loss in 2011

Fish and Fisheries At risk, $218 million/yr in landing value of which >$42 million in Los Angeles. (not accounting for related industries e.g. fish processing). (i) Impact experienced directly through Ecological and Environmental Factors ii. Cascading Effects (inter-dependencies) Affect fishery industry, species, and habitats..

Habitats, Marine Life Habitats and marine life buried by sand, nets, kelp beds torn out. Environmental contaminants and debris dumped on the seabed or remobilized 150,000 m3 sediment in one bay - $12.7 million/yr crab fishery and crab populations, contaminants mobilized. Lost Fishing Gear- 1 ghost net traps 1,000 crabs and other invertebrates, 150 fish, and 80 birds per year Resulting $ Loss: $20,000 to crab fisheries

Ecosystem and Human Resilience Cascading consequences - DESPITE HUGE INVESTEMENT IN PROTECTION OF NATURE AND RETURNS TO HUMANS IN MULTIPLE SERVICES AND VALUES History Shows_ Post Disaster Response and Recovery Challenges Contaminant-Ecosystem: Jurisdictional Regulations. Contaminated sediments Relaxation of regulations that increase vulnerability long-term, and hamper recovery. Post tsunami, changes to fishery policy increased pressure on resource and on fishermen. Post forest fire/ earthquake response was to relax building regulations in vulnerable areas:.

Functional Resilience THE MESSY HUMAN_ECOSYSTEM INTERACTION IN RESILIENCE Cannot fully anticipate or predict every event or cascading link. Role of Science. Knowledge, forecasting and understanding the impacts on ecosystems and natural resources. Hidden and Counter-intuitive outcomes. Decision Makers: Processes in place to deal with unexpected. Community Needs, Values, and Priorities: wrt to ecosystems/natural resources. To Be Continued